Imperial Oil (IMO) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive overall. Imperial reported record downstream earnings, substantial cash generation, significant shareholder distributions, strong renewable diesel performance, favorable refining conditions, and multiple long-term upstream growth opportunities. These positives outweighed the production shortfall at Kearl, third-party pipeline outages, the wider expected WCS differential, sequentially lower chemical earnings, and the remaining uncertainty around definitive MOU agreements.

Imperial expects to end the year at the low end of upstream production guidance range for Cold Lake and Syncrude, and is now targeting gross annual production of 280 thousand barrels per day at Kearl; it continues to target higher volumes in the fourth quarter, Kearl production to 300 thousand barrels per day in 2028, no planned major turnarounds at Kearl in 2027 or 2028, and a next planned major turnaround in 2029. Imperial remains confident in its downstream guidance range, expects debottlenecking work to enhance refinery crude utilization by year end, anticipates completing its accelerated NCIB by year end, and is well positioned to return additional surplus cash to shareholders in the New Year. It continues to target 300 thousand barrels per day at Kearl and a unit cost of $18/barrel at Kearl, and 165 thousand barrels per day and a unit cash cost of $13/barrel at Cold Lake, with the potential over time to double its gross operated upstream production; the Aspen Enhanced Bitumen Recovery Technology pilot remains on track for early 2020, with a possible FID at the end of the decade.