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Green Thumb Industries
(GTII)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$10.00
▼(-4.58% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/01/26
The score is supported primarily by solid financial performance (profitability, moderate leverage, and positive operating/free cash flow) and a reasonable P/E valuation. It is held back by weak technical positioning (trading below all major moving averages with soft momentum) and near-term business headwinds highlighted on the earnings call, including pricing pressure, margin compression, and elevated operating costs with flat near-term revenue guidance.
Positive Factors
Vertical integration and diversified distribution
GTII combines cultivation, processing, branded manufacturing, owned retail, and wholesale distribution, allowing it to capture value across multiple stages of the cannabis chain. This integrated model can support supply control, product consistency, assortment management, and broader monetization of production capacity over time.
Negative Factors
Pricing compression and flat near-term revenue outlook
Persistent pricing pressure in several important markets can constrain revenue growth even when customer demand and store activity remain stable. The flat sequential outlook indicates that competitive market conditions may limit near-term operating leverage and make sustained top-line acceleration more difficult.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration and diversified distribution
GTII combines cultivation, processing, branded manufacturing, owned retail, and wholesale distribution, allowing it to capture value across multiple stages of the cannabis chain. This integrated model can support supply control, product consistency, assortment management, and broader monetization of production capacity over time.
Read all positive factors
Green Thumb Industries (GTII) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.39B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)119.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth3.81%
EPS Growth344.13%
CountryCA
Employees4,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding197,389,270
10 Day Avg. Volume146,864
30 Day Avg. Volume119,300
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.58
P/FCF Ratio8.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$21.50Price Target Upside105.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.23B
Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Thumb Industries Inc. is a U.S.-based company focused on the cultivation, processing, and distribution of cannabis products for both medicinal and adult recreational consumption. Its diverse product portfolio includes raw cannabis flower and...
How the Company Makes Money
GTII primarily makes money by selling cannabis and cannabis-derived products through two main channels: (1) retail sales through company-owned dispensaries and (2) wholesale sales of branded products to other dispensaries and retail operators. In ...
Green Thumb Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a generally positive operational and strategic position: revenue and normalized EBITDA grew, GAAP net income turned positive, liquidity is strong ($284M cash), meaningful share repurchases have been executed, and state-level regulatory progress (Virginia, Texas) and potential RYTHM consolidation create upside. Offsetting risks include persistent pricing compression in several states, a YoY decline in gross margins driven by licensing fees, higher SG&A from team investments, and continued uncertainty around federal rescheduling and hemp policy which could keep short-term revenue and margins under pressure. On balance, the company appears financially resilient with clear strategic catalysts and the resources to act, while near-term headwinds remain.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $307 million in Q2 FY2026, up 5% year-over-year, driven by adult-use launch in Minnesota, net CPG growth, and new store contributions.
Negative Updates
Pricing Compression and Flat Near-Term Revenue Outlook
Ongoing pricing pressure in key markets (notably Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) remains a headwind; company expects Q3 sequential revenue to be flat due to the pricing environment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $307 million in Q2 FY2026, up 5% year-over-year, driven by adult-use launch in Minnesota, net CPG growth, and new store contributions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that Q2 results included $307 million of revenue (up 5% YoY), normalized EBITDA of $84.3 million (about 27.5–28% of revenue), gross profit of $138 million (45% of revenue, versus $146 million/50% last year—impacted by $17.5 million of brand licensing fees), cash flow from operations of $29 million, and $284 million of cash on the balance sheet (just over $1.00 per share); SG&A was $118 million (38% of revenue) with normalized operating costs of ~$84 million (vs. $74 million prior year), GAAP net income was $4.9 million ($0.02/share), and the company repurchased ~8 million shares this quarter at an average just over $6 (~29.5 million shares repurchased since Q4 2023 at an average $7, returning >$200 million, ~13% of shares outstanding). For near-term guidance they expect Q3 revenue to be flat sequentially, full-year 2026 CapEx of ~ $80 million (Q2 spend ~ $20 million: ~$5M retail, ~$15M wholesale), licensing fees to remain consistent in Q3 under the new fixed fee structure, and flagged a potential consolidation of RYTHM into Green Thumb if RYTHM shareholders approve an Aug. 10 vote (consolidation possible as early as Oct. 10, 2026); they also noted key timing items of interest to the business—Virginia adult‑use effective July 1, 2027, a federal hemp ban slated for Nov. 12, 2026, and an anticipated DEA rescheduling decision on the remainder of cannabis later this year.Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.21B | 1.20B | 1.14B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 893.56M |
| Gross Profit | 542.71M | 548.94M | 601.11M | 526.50M | 503.96M | 491.93M |
| EBITDA | 365.02M | 340.57M | 392.00M | 324.14M | 270.28M | 329.53M |
| Net Income | 127.79M | 116.15M | 73.08M | 36.27M | 11.98M | 75.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.82B | 2.78B | 2.54B | 2.49B | 2.43B | 2.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 283.59M | 284.76M | 171.69M | 161.63M | 177.68M | 230.42M |
| Total Debt | 560.20M | 518.35M | 530.70M | 570.28M | 535.86M | 431.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 954.64M | 877.81M | 747.93M | 786.80M | 768.10M | 766.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.86B | 1.90B | 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.67B | 1.62B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 198.06M | 217.60M | 115.00M | 4.93M | -20.94M | -55.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 269.26M | 300.09M | 195.18M | 224.97M | 158.56M | 132.05M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -86.62M | -132.67M | -89.54M | -227.91M | -219.95M | -280.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -76.15M | -51.83M | -95.59M | -13.11M | 8.64M | 295.34M |
Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis
Negative
10.48
Price Trends
10.26
Negative
10.45
Negative
10.19
Negative
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
37.50
Neutral
43.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.52, above the 50-day MA of 10.26, and above the 200-day MA of 10.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GTII.
Green Thumb Industries Risk Analysis
Green Thumb Industries disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Thumb Industries reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | C$2.39B | 12.10 | 6.82% | ― | 3.81% | 344.13% | |
53 Neutral | C$4.07B | -75.00 | -4.47% | ― | 1.50% | 81.84% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | C$2.17B | -1.51 | -35.22% | ― | -2.30% | 26.63% | |
43 Neutral | C$470.35M | -2.15 | -28.27% | ― | -5.83% | -115.39% | |
42 Neutral | C$179.73M | -1.51 | 53.44% | ― | 4.96% | -12.20% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TSE:GTII
Green Thumb Industries
9.72
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Green Thumb Industries Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Green Thumb Extends $50 Million Share Buyback in Cannabis Market Confidence Play
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
Green Thumb Industries has authorized the continuation of its share repurchase program for another 12 months, allowing up to $50 million in subordinate voting share buybacks. The cannabis CPG and retail operator previously repurchased about 29.5 m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.