Frontera Energy AI Stock Analysis
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Frontera Energy (FEC) AI Stock Analysis
Frontera Energy
(TSX:FEC)
The overall score of 52 reflects a company in transition, balancing severe current income statement distress against a promising strategic shift. The most significant positive factor is the strong operational cash flow and the advanced progress of high-potential infrastructure projects detailed in the earnings call. This is offset by the major risk of rapid equity erosion on the balance sheet and weak technical momentum. The company's future hinges entirely on the successful execution of its infrastructure transformation and the durability of its cash generation.
Frontera Energy (FEC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 348.89M
- Dividend Yield
- 53.70%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 45.44K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -0.6
- Beta (1Y)
- -0.39
- Revenue Growth
- -73.63%
- EPS Growth
- -65.79%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 857
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Frontera Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Frontera Energy Corporation is an upstream energy company primarily focused on discovering, developing, and extracting crude oil and natural gas resources across South America. Its diverse asset base includes stakes in 35 oil and gas exploration and...
How the Company Makes Money
Frontera Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil (and, where applicable, natural gas and other associated hydrocarbons) from its operated and non-operated upstream assets. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold un...
Frontera Energy Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly positive, supported by 16% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth, higher Puerto BahÃa activity, stable ODL distributions, declining net debt, and continued progress on the LNG and LPG projects. The main negatives were lower year-over-year net income, lower quarter-over-quarter operating cash flow, ODL's historically flat performance, and the absence of detailed project-level financial guidance and a stated dividend framework.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The LNG regasification project is now 71% complete, with operations expected to begin in February 2027 under a take-or-pay agreement with Ecopetrol, initial regasification of 126 million cubic feet per day increasing to 300 million cubic feet per day after the first 2 years, an estimated project cost between $80 million and $100 million, and an FSRU capacity of approximately 500 million cubic feet per day for an initial term of 7 years, extendable for an additional 5 to 8 years; LPG operations have handling capacity of up to 10,000 tons per month, while Phase II includes a 29,500-ton refrigerated LPG storage facility with operations targeted to start in 2028; the company is evaluating a 150 to 300-megawatt thermal power plant, subject to securing firm energy obligations, regulatory approvals, environmental permits and long-term commercial arrangements before a final investment decision, and said it will provide guidance on LNG financial metrics, fully ramped LPG EBITDA, and specific projects at the beginning of next year as part of its guidance for 2027.
Frontera Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial performance is deeply bifurcated. The income statement is severely distressed with a -119.6% net margin and collapsing revenue, while the balance sheet shows rapidly eroding equity. However, robust operating cash flow ($356M TTM) and strong free cash flow conversion provide a critical buffer, preventing a lower score.
Income Statement
18Very NegativeBalance Sheet
42NeutralCash Flow
72Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 528.57M | 1.02B | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.37B | 926.63M |
| Gross Profit | 31.91M | 72.77M | 212.78M | 516.50M | 506.77M | 350.97M |
| EBITDA | 156.34M | 294.29M | 383.18M | 539.39M | 777.26M | 807.66M |
| Net Income | -632.11M | -1.08B | -24.16M | 193.50M | 286.62M | 628.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 502.18M | 1.83B | 2.90B | 3.02B | 2.74B | 2.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.28M | 230.16M | 192.58M | 159.67M | 289.85M | 257.50M |
| Total Debt | 170.19M | 493.01M | 506.04M | 536.82M | 511.55M | 560.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 257.07M | 1.24B | 1.17B | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 253.79M | 599.85M | 1.72B | 1.82B | 1.58B | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 231.63M | 176.75M | 159.38M | -24.60M | 204.82M | 15.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 355.66M | 386.15M | 510.03M | 411.79M | 620.48M | 327.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 80.45M | -234.65M | -339.25M | -484.32M | -383.27M | -186.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -574.57M | -128.99M | -128.86M | -62.66M | -193.60M | -108.38M |
Frontera Energy Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FEC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.78, below the 50-day MA of 8.23, and above the 200-day MA of 7.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FEC.
Frontera Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:LGN69Neutral
TSE:CEI57Neutral
TSE:TAL55Neutral- TSE:FEC52Neutral
TSE:OBE52Neutral
TSE:IPO44Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:LGN | 69Neutral | CAD 1.02B | 25.00 | 11.28% | ― | 63.81% | 8.49% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| TSE:CEI | 57Neutral | CAD 418.35M | 106.25 | 2.08% | ― | 408.75% | ― |
| TSE:TAL | 55Neutral | CAD 487.77M | 52.17 | 1.21% | ― | -26.54% | -91.31% |
| TSE:FEC | 52Neutral | CAD 496.09M | -0.59 | -94.31% | 53.70% | -73.63% | -65.79% |
| TSE:OBE | 52Neutral | CAD 892.18M | 36.52 | 1.81% | ― | -5.74% | ― |
| TSE:IPO | 44Neutral | CAD 488.01M | -45.31 | -3.16% | 6.14% | 61.44% | -16.23% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:FEC | Frontera Energy Corp (OTC) | 7.58 | 4.84 | 176.84% | |
| TSE:OBE | Obsidian Energy Ltd | 13.87 | 5.08 | 57.79% | |
| TSE:TAL | Petro Tal Corp | 0.53 | 0.11 | 24.71% | |
| TSE:IPO | InPlay Oil | 17.60 | 5.46 | 44.95% | |
| TSE:CEI | Coelacanth Energy, Inc. | 0.66 | -0.18 | -21.43% | |
| TSE:LGN | Logan Energy Corp | 1.52 | 0.68 | 80.95% |
Frontera Energy Corporate Events
Frontera Energy Sets Date for Q3 2026 Results and Investor Call
PositiveFrontera Energy Corporation, a Canadian-listed operator of strategic energy infrastructure in Colombia, derives its core business from a major interest in the Oleoducto de Los Llanos Orientales crude pipeline and controlling ownership of the Puerto B...
Frontera Energy Completes Infrastructure Pivot as Q2 Profit Rises
PositiveFrontera Energy reported second quarter 2026 net income of $29.0 million, with Adjusted EBITDA rising 18% year over year to $30.5 million and strong cash generation from its ODL pipeline interest. The company also reduced net debt and maintained a hi...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 13, 2026