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Frontera Energy (FEC) AI Stock Analysis
Frontera Energy
(TSX:FEC)
The overall score of 57 reflects a company in transition with significant strengths and weaknesses. The primary positive driver is the strategic clarity and contracted growth from the Puerto Bahia LNG project, supported by strong operational cash flow and a healthy technical trend. These are significantly offset by the severe income statement losses and negative valuation metrics, which highlight the financial distress and equity erosion from its legacy operations. The company's future hinges entirely on the successful execution of its infrastructure pivot.
Frontera Energy (FEC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 403.38M
- Dividend Yield
- 51.26%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 49.24K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -0.6
- Beta (1Y)
- -0.32
- Revenue Growth
- -52.12%
- EPS Growth
- -57.79%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 857
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Frontera Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Frontera Energy Corporation is an upstream energy company primarily focused on discovering, developing, and extracting crude oil and natural gas resources across South America. Its diverse asset base includes stakes in 35 oil and gas exploration and...
How the Company Makes Money
Frontera Energy makes money primarily by producing and selling crude oil (and, to a lesser extent, natural gas and related hydrocarbons) from its operated and non-operated assets. Revenue is recognized largely from commodity sales volumes multiplied...
Frontera Energy Earnings Call Summary
The call conveyed a generally positive tone driven by the successful completion of the Parex transaction, strong Puerto Bahia operational momentum (notably RoRo volume growth and record month), improving adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow, and concrete commercial and technical progress on the LNG regasification project (take-or-pay with Ecopetrol and FSRU agreement with Excelerate). Balance sheet metrics improved (net debt reduction and net debt/EBITDA below 1x) and targeted shareholder returns were delivered. Key risks include execution timing to achieve first gas in early 2027, initial limited regas capacity during the early phase, and continued reliance on external financing for project advancement. Overall, the positives and clear execution plan materially outweigh the identifiable risks.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to a disciplined growth path focused on the Puerto Bahia LNG regasification project, targeting first gas in early 2027 under a 7‑year take‑or‑pay with Ecopetrol (initial 2‑year capacity of 126 million cubic feet per day, rising to 300 million cubic feet per day thereafter) and an FSRU lease for an initial 7‑year term (extendable 5–8 years); management reiterated a commitment to maintain leverage below 1x adjusted EBITDA (net debt $114.2m and net debt/adjusted EBITDA 0.98x as of June 30, 2026) supported by Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $30.5m (up 18% YoY), Q2 cash from operations $26m, total cash $56.3m, LTM distributable cash flow $78.8m, and recent shareholder returns of CAD 8.34 per share; financing and project support highlighted included a $30m Bancolombia facility ($10m drawn in‑quarter, $20m disbursed post‑quarter), a $12.6m Macquarie letter‑of‑credit facility, ODL proceeds of $26.8m plus a $5.2m return of capital, near‑term capex of $1.5m in Q2 ($2.5m YTD), and Puerto Bahia revenue of $14.6m with RoRo volumes +85% YoY (April record 17,200 units).
Frontera Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial performance is deeply bifurcated. The income statement is severely distressed with a -119.6% net margin and collapsing revenue, while the balance sheet shows rapidly eroding equity. However, cash flow generation is a bright spot, with robust operating cash flow of $356M and strong free cash flow conversion. The overall score reflects the heavy weight of the income statement losses, partially offset by cash flow resilience.
Income Statement
18Very NegativeBalance Sheet
42NeutralCash Flow
72Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 528.57M | 1.02B | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.37B | 926.63M |
| Gross Profit | 31.91M | 72.77M | 212.78M | 516.50M | 506.77M | 350.97M |
| EBITDA | 156.34M | 294.29M | 383.18M | 539.39M | 777.26M | 807.66M |
| Net Income | -632.11M | -1.08B | -24.16M | 193.50M | 286.62M | 628.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 502.18M | 1.83B | 2.90B | 3.02B | 2.74B | 2.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.28M | 230.16M | 192.58M | 159.67M | 289.85M | 257.50M |
| Total Debt | 170.19M | 493.01M | 506.04M | 536.82M | 511.55M | 560.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 257.07M | 1.24B | 1.17B | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 253.79M | 599.85M | 1.72B | 1.82B | 1.58B | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 231.63M | 176.75M | 159.38M | -24.60M | 204.82M | 15.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 355.66M | 386.15M | 510.03M | 411.79M | 620.48M | 327.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 80.45M | -234.65M | -339.25M | -484.32M | -383.27M | -186.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -574.57M | -128.99M | -128.86M | -62.66M | -193.60M | -108.38M |
Frontera Energy Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FEC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.28, below the 50-day MA of 8.46, and above the 200-day MA of 7.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FEC.
Frontera Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:LGN69Neutral
TSE:OBE65Neutral
TSE:TAL64Neutral
TSE:CEI60Neutral
TSE:IPO60Neutral- TSE:FEC57Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:LGN | 69Neutral | CAD 1.04B | 25.41 | 11.28% | ― | 64.45% | 45.67% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| TSE:OBE | 65Neutral | CAD 1.10B | 56.85 | 1.39% | ― | -21.66% | ― |
| TSE:TAL | 64Neutral | CAD 533.79M | 25.39 | 2.93% | ― | -27.27% | -79.93% |
| TSE:CEI | 60Neutral | CAD 443.71M | 109.38 | 2.08% | ― | 408.75% | ― |
| TSE:IPO | 60Neutral | CAD 565.71M | -42.63 | -3.81% | 5.28% | 78.72% | -219.22% |
| TSE:FEC | 57Neutral | CAD 561.90M | -0.63 | -94.31% | 51.26% | -52.12% | -57.79% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:FEC | Frontera Energy Corp (OTC) | 7.94 | 5.33 | 203.87% | |
| TSE:OBE | Obsidian Energy Ltd | 16.51 | 8.52 | 106.63% | |
| TSE:TAL | Petro Tal Corp | 0.58 | -0.08 | -12.12% | |
| TSE:IPO | InPlay Oil | 20.46 | 9.04 | 79.11% | |
| TSE:CEI | Coelacanth Energy, Inc. | 0.70 | -0.12 | -14.63% | |
| TSE:LGN | Logan Energy Corp | 1.54 | 0.72 | 87.80% |
Frontera Energy Corporate Events
Frontera Energy Completes Infrastructure Pivot as Q2 Profit Rises
PositiveFrontera Energy reported second quarter 2026 net income of $29.0 million, with Adjusted EBITDA rising 18% year over year to $30.5 million and strong cash generation from its ODL pipeline interest. The company also reduced net debt and maintained a hi...
Frontera Energy Sets Date for Q2 2026 Results and Investor Call
NeutralFrontera Energy Corporation, a Canadian-listed operator of strategic energy infrastructure in Colombia, holds key stakes in the ODL crude pipeline and the Puerto Bahia maritime terminal, both vital components of the country’s energy logistics n...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 21, 2026