TMX Group (X) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.38B
• Dividend Yield: 1.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 754.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: -6.09%
• EPS Growth: 12.76%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,039
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 278,160,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 831,588
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 754,685
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.51
• 1Y Price Target: $62.59
• Price Target Upside: 21.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: C$56.00 ▲(8.32% Upside)

TMX Group's strong earnings performance and strategic acquisitions are significant positives, driving the score higher. However, the stock's overvaluation and bearish technical indicators weigh down the overall score. The company's stable financial position and cash flow management provide a solid foundation, but challenges in revenue growth and profitability need to be addressed.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth across multiple segments indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Derivatives Trading Expansion

The expansion in derivatives trading strengthens TMX Group's market position and diversifies its revenue streams, providing resilience against market fluctuations.

Dividend Increase

Increasing dividends reflects strong cash generation and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, enhancing investor confidence and long-term appeal.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth indicates potential challenges in maintaining market share and competitiveness, which could impact future profitability and strategic positioning.

Decreased Profit Margins

Reduced profit margins suggest rising costs or pricing pressures, which may hinder the company's ability to sustain profitability and invest in growth initiatives.

Higher Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses can strain margins and cash flow, limiting financial flexibility and the ability to invest in future growth opportunities.

TMX Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMX Group Limited operates exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily for capital markets in Canada and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Global Solutions, Insights & Analytics; Capital Formation; Derivatives Trading and Clearing; and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing. The Global Solutions, Insights & Analytics segment delivers equities and index data, as well as integrated data sets for the proprietary and third party analytics to help clients in making trading and investment decisions; and provides solutions to European and global wholesale energy markets for price discovery, trade execution, post-trade transparency, and straight through processing. The Capital Formation segment operates Toronto Stock Exchange, a national stock exchange for the senior equities market; TSX Venture Exchange, a national stock exchange for the public venture equity market; and TSX Trust that provides corporate trust, registrar, transfer agency, and foreign exchange services. The Derivatives Trading & Clearing segment operates Montreal Exchange, a national derivatives exchange; Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, a clearinghouse for options and futures contracts; and various over-the-counter products and fixed income repurchase agreements. The Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing segment engages in the trading operations of Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, and TSX Alpha Exchange; and clearing and settlement of equities and fixed income transactions, and custody of securities; and provision of fixed income inter-dealer brokerage services. The company was formerly known as Maple Group Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMX Group Limited in August 2012. TMX Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TMX Group generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged for trading activities on its exchanges, including fees from equity, derivatives, and fixed income transactions. Additionally, it earns income from listing fees paid by companies that go public on its exchanges. Another significant revenue stream comes from data services, where TMX provides market data to financial institutions and other clients. The company also benefits from its technology services, which include trading and market infrastructure solutions. Partnerships with financial institutions and corporations, as well as the growing demand for capital raising and trading services, contribute to its overall earnings.

TMX Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TMX Group demonstrates a stable financial position with strong cash flow management and moderate leverage. However, declining revenue and profitability margins pose challenges. The company needs to address revenue growth and improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability and shareholder returns.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 64.95% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 26.58% TTM from 32.98% in the previous year, reflecting reduced profitability. Revenue growth is negative at -18.12% TTM, suggesting a decline in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are unusually high due to potential accounting adjustments, which may not reflect operational efficiency accurately.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity has decreased to 2.92% TTM from 10.52% in the previous year, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of 12.10% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.02 TTM, which may suggest potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 87.58% TTM, highlighting effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.59B	1.46B	2.90B	1.12B	980.70M	865.10M
Gross Profit	1.03B	958.80M	2.81B	751.00M	662.60M	580.90M
EBITDA	2.22B	2.46B	2.35B	1.57B	578.30M	496.20M
Net Income	422.00M	481.50M	356.00M	542.70M	338.50M	279.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.81B	40.21B	64.34B	55.98B	63.20B	36.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	465.60M	433.40M	419.60M	493.10M	341.60M	277.90M
Total Debt	2.09B	2.17B	1.15B	1.11B	1.10B	1.01B
Total Liabilities	42.96B	35.39B	60.02B	51.78B	59.49B	32.49B
Stockholders Equity	4.64B	4.58B	4.11B	3.99B	3.71B	3.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	620.60M	549.70M	459.70M	392.20M	390.20M	343.80M
Operating Cash Flow	708.60M	623.40M	524.90M	444.10M	441.40M	410.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-188.40M	-1.17B	-289.30M	-41.40M	-203.90M	-34.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-590.10M	562.60M	-309.20M	-292.90M	-194.80M	-304.40M

TMX Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 51.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:X, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.66, below the 50-day MA of 52.51, and below the 200-day MA of 52.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:X.

TMX Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IAG	76 Outperform	C$15.47B	15.51	13.43%	2.20%	-4.55%	42.41%
POW	76 Outperform	C$42.38B	15.45	12.07%	3.62%	11.56%	1.15%
X	68 Neutral	$14.38B	31.25	9.87%	1.56%	-6.09%	12.76%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BAM	66 Neutral	C$122.58B	36.73	26.64%	3.12%	554.20%	37.48%
BN	61 Neutral	$158.92B	153.94	1.83%	0.51%	-20.34%	-21.46%

TMX Group Corporate Events

TMX Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Growth

TMX Group Limited, a prominent player in the global financial markets, operates various exchanges and provides a range of services including trading, clearing, and data analytics. The company is headquartered in Toronto and has a significant presence in North America and international markets.

TMX Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Acquisition

TMX Group Limited reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with an 18% increase in revenue to $418.6 million and a 43% rise in diluted earnings per share. The company’s growth was driven by significant increases in derivatives trading, equities markets, and contributions from its Global Insights division. TMX’s strategic focus on global growth and market excellence has resulted in a balanced business model that continues to deliver value to shareholders. Additionally, the acquisition of Verity enhances TMX Datalinx’s offerings, strengthening its position in delivering investment-grade data and insights.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:X) stock is a Buy with a C$66.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMX Group stock, see the TSE:X Stock Forecast page.

TMX Group Declares $0.22 Dividend for Shareholders

TMX Group Limited has announced a dividend of $0.22 per common share, payable on November 28, 2025, to shareholders recorded by November 14, 2025. This declaration, marked as an ‘eligible dividend’ for Canadian tax purposes, reflects TMX Group’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders, potentially enhancing its attractiveness to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:X) stock is a Buy with a C$66.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMX Group stock, see the TSE:X Stock Forecast page.