Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii A.S. (AEFES) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call presented a mixed outlook. International beer and soft drinks operations showed strong volume growth, Kazakhstan reached a record market share, consolidated free cash flow improved materially, and consolidated leverage remained healthy. However, these positives were offset by severe and continuing weakness in Turkey beer, lower revenue per hectoliter, significant Beer Group profitability compression, higher Beer Group leverage, possible negative full-year free cash flow, and downward revisions to Beer Group guidance. The balance of resilience internationally and substantial domestic challenges supports a Neutral overall sentiment.

For the full year, Anadolu Efes now anticipates a high-single-digit volume decline for Turkey beer, revising Beer Group volume guidance from a low-single-digit decline to a mid-single-digit decline, with EBITDA margin contraction of 250 basis points including IAS 29 effects and 200 basis points on a pre-IAS 29 basis; in soft drinks, Turkey's volume performance is expected to remain broadly flat, international soft drinks operations are expected to deliver low-teens volume growth, consolidated soft drinks volume guidance is high-single-digit growth, net revenue per unit case, including the impact of IAS 29, is expected to decline by low-single digits, and Anadolu Efes' reported net revenue per hectoliter guidance is a low-single-digit decline. The Beer Group's ultimate objective remains to be at least at the breakeven point in free cash flow generation, although it may close the year with a negative free cash flow position, but not very far from breakeven; with November and December performance broadly in line with the first 9 months, EBITDA margin would be affected by around 40 basis points.