Tootsie Roll (TR) AI Stock Analysis

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Tootsie Roll

(NYSE:TR)

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Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:$36.00▼(-7.88% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:09/06/26

Tootsie Roll scores in the mid-range, supported primarily by an exceptionally strong balance sheet with near-zero debt and consistently growing equity, which offers solid downside protection. However, this is tempered by an -11.8% TTM revenue decline, a sharp drop in free cash flow, and only modest returns on capital. Technicals are the weakest element, with the price trading below all major moving averages and depressed RSI and stochastic readings indicating ongoing downward pressure. A near-30x P/E paired with a sub-1% dividend yield leaves valuation demanding for a low-growth business, while the Klass acquisition in Mexico adds a modest positive strategic angle. KPI data reinforces heavy dependence on Q3 seasonal product demand, making peak-season execution and pricing/mix the key swing factors. Earnings call analysis was excluded due to unavailable data, with its weight redistributed across the remaining components.

Positive Factors

Strong profitabilityTootsie Roll continues to generate robust gross and net margins, showing that its branded confectionery portfolio retains meaningful earnings power. This profitability provides internal funding for operations and strategic initiatives while offering resilience as revenue growth moderates over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Contracting revenueThe sharp TTM revenue decline indicates weaker current sales momentum across the business and may limit operating leverage if lower volume persists. Sustained contraction could reduce the company’s ability to spread fixed costs, fund initiatives, and maintain earnings growth despite solid margins.

Tootsie Roll Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by TypeShows how much revenue comes from each product or product group (e.g., Tootsie Rolls, Pops, Dots, Junior Mints, gum and seasonal items) and how sales are split across major lines. Reveals concentration in flagship brands, differences in pricing power and margins by product type, exposure to commodity and seasonal swings, and whether new products or marketing are shifting the sales mix — all useful for judging growth potential and downside risk.

Chart Insights

Product revenue is highly seasonal and concentrated in Q3 (holiday/back-to-school), making annual results hinge on executing seasonal demand and retailer relationships; Q3 peaks expanded through 2021–2023 but have since been volatile (a 2024 dip and partial 2025 recovery), signaling sensitivity to promotion, supply or channel execution. Rental & royalty income is a steady, slowly rising but immaterial supplemental stream that won’t meaningfully offset product cyclicality.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Tootsie Roll (TR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.94B
Dividend Yield: 0.92%
Average Volume (3M): 167.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.1
Beta (1Y): 0.06
Revenue Growth: 1.65%
EPS Growth: 5.45%
Country: US
Employees: 2,100
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Food Confectioners

Tootsie Roll Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. is a long-standing confectionery business that produces and markets a wide variety of sweet treats. Its operations extend across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and numerous other countries worldwide. The company is r...

How the Company Makes Money

Tootsie Roll makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling branded confectionery products to customers in the consumer packaged goods supply chain. Revenue is generated from the sale of its candy portfolio (including chocolate and non-chocolate...

Tootsie Roll Financial Statement Overview

Summary

A fortress balance sheet (Balance Sheet 85) anchors the profile: debt-to-equity of just 1.4%, $952M of steadily growing equity, and virtually no financial risk. Offsetting this, the income statement (58) shows lumpy growth with an -11.8% TTM revenue decline and slight margin compression versus FY2025, despite multi-year margin expansion to ~13.7% net and 21% EBITDA. Cash flow (62) is reliably positive but deteriorating, with free cash flow falling from $121M in 2024 to $80M TTM (-18.9%) and FCF conversion dropping to 64% of net income. Modest ~10% ROE caps the upside. Net: low-risk, low-growth fundamentals.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

85Very Positive

Cash Flow

62Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	734.74M	732.52M	723.22M	769.37M	686.97M	570.78M
Gross Profit	256.32M	260.27M	253.18M	256.84M	232.73M	199.24M
EBITDA	149.83M	156.75M	145.56M	138.47M	115.91M	103.34M
Net Income	95.46M	100.05M	86.83M	91.91M	75.94M	65.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.27B	1.25B	1.15B	1.08B	1.02B	1.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	141.12M	177.03M	194.63M	171.42M	149.40M	145.81M
Total Debt	16.16M	13.88M	14.79M	15.89M	13.29M	15.86M
Total Liabilities	317.81M	313.41M	276.77M	261.28M	235.90M	249.82M
Stockholders Equity	952.27M	940.97M	870.74M	823.42M	783.17M	769.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	80.16M	96.35M	120.89M	67.81M	48.70M	53.87M
Operating Cash Flow	124.67M	130.61M	138.89M	94.61M	72.05M	85.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-153.81M	-110.55M	-35.84M	-14.20M	-68.59M	-91.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-30.40M	-32.55M	-39.15M	-58.18M	-56.40M	-54.15M

Tootsie Roll Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price39.08

Price Trends

50DMA37.85Positive

100DMA38.46Positive

200DMA39.40Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.09Negative

RSI61.56Neutral

STOCH90.41Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.14, above the 50-day MA of 37.85, and below the 200-day MA of 39.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TR.

Tootsie Roll Risk Analysis

Tootsie Roll disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tootsie Roll reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk

1.The following update to our risk factors should be read in conjunction with the risk factors previously disclosed in Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” of our 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K (the "2025 Form 10-K") filed with the SEC. Except as described herein, the Company is not aware of any material changes with respect to the risk factors disclosed in our 2025 Form 10-K.Q2, 2026

Tootsie Roll Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

TR against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MDLZ	80Outperform	$85.29B	21.01	15.56%	3.02%	5.98%	18.48%
JJSF	68Neutral	$1.70B	34.86	5.40%	3.51%	-4.69%	-39.51%
HSY	65Neutral	$35.07B	19.91	38.14%	3.23%	6.69%	32.39%
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TR	59Neutral	$2.93B	30.06	10.15%	0.92%	1.65%	5.45%
UTZ	58Neutral	$2.06B	-43.53	-4.08%	1.77%	1.95%	-257.17%
RMCF	43Neutral	$8.07M	-1.11	-130.90%	―	-9.74%	-13.42%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TR and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TR	Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.	39.08	2.85	7.86%
HSY	The Hershey Company	177.43	11.81	7.13%
JJSF	J & J Snack Foods	91.13	12.35	15.68%
RMCF	Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory	0.78	-0.85	-52.16%
MDLZ	Mondelez International	66.82	11.60	21.02%
UTZ	Utz Brands Inc	14.27	4.63	48.09%

Tootsie Roll Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Tootsie Roll expands Mexican presence with Klass acquisition

Positive

Sep 1, 2026

On September 1, 2026, Tutsi, S.A. de C.V., a subsidiary of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc., completed the acquisition of the confectionery business of The Klass Company in Mexico, including the Winis brand. This transaction is intended to strengthen an...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 06, 2026

Tootsie Roll AI Stock Analysis