Theriva Biologics (TOVX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.78M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 20.87K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 6.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 50
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 6.03
• Shares Outstanding: 2,782,449
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,389
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,868
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -3.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $6.00
• Price Target Upside: 1032.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

Theriva Biologics faces substantial financial difficulties with no revenue and growing losses, which is a major concern. While technical indicators show some short-term positive momentum, the long-term trend remains negative. The lack of profitability impacts valuation. However, the recent positive clinical trial results provide a potential future catalyst that could improve the company's prospects.

Positive Factors

Financial Health

Theriva has a cash runway into the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by an additional $7.5 million raised from equity financing.

Market Positioning

The oncolytic virus space has been gaining traction with investors, and Theriva's VCN-01 approach is differentiated with orphan drug and fast track designations for pancreatic cancer.

Regulatory Progress

Theriva has begun planning a pivotal Phase 3 study to evaluate the combination of VCN-01 with chemotherapy, with plans to request an End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA.

Negative Factors

Commercialization Challenges

The commercialization timelines for VCN-01 have been extended to 2030, which has contributed to lowering the price target.

Stock Performance

The shares of Theriva Biologics experienced a significant drop of 40% due to the unimpressive data results and concurrent equity financing.

Study Results

The overall data from the P2b pancreatic cancer study was mixed and unimpressive, particularly because the key measure of median overall survival did not meet expectations.

Theriva Biologics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Theriva Biologics Inc., a clinical-stage company, develops therapeutics to treat diseases in areas of high unmet need. The company's lead product candidates include SYN-004 designed to degrade various commonly used intravenous beta-lactam antibiotics in gastrointestinal (GI) tract for the prevention of microbiome damage, clostridium difficile infection (CDI), overgrowth of pathogenic organisms, the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and acute graft-versus-host-disease (aGVHD) in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients; and SYN-020, a recombinant oral formulation for the enzyme intestinal alkaline phosphatase to treat both local GI and systemic diseases. It also develops VCN-01 for the treatment of patients with pancreatic cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer, and retinoblastoma. In addition, the company develops clinical stage products, such as SYN-006 to prevent aGVHD and infection by carbapenem resistant enterococci; SYN-007 for preventing antibiotic associated diarrhea with oral ß-lactam antibiotics; SYN-005 for the prevention and treatment of pertussis; and VCN-11 to treat cancer. It has collaborations with Intrexon Corporation, The University of Texas at Austin, and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center; and a clinical trial agreement with Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis to conduct a Phase 1b/2a clinical trial of SYN-004. The company was formerly known as Synthetic Biologics, Inc. and changed its name to Theriva Biologics Inc. in October 2022. Theriva Biologics Inc. is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Theriva Biologics makes money through the development, licensing, and commercialization of its proprietary biologic products. The company's revenue streams include partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for co-development and licensing agreements, which provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales of approved products. Additionally, the company may receive funding from grants and collaborations with research institutions that support its innovative therapeutic programs. These strategic partnerships and collaborations are significant contributors to the company's earnings, as they help to advance its product pipeline while sharing the risks and costs associated with drug development.

Theriva Biologics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Theriva Biologics faces significant financial challenges with zero revenue generation and increasing net losses. The balance sheet shows declining equity and assets, raising concerns about long-term viability. Negative cash flows further emphasize the need for external financing to sustain operations, highlighting potential liquidity risks.

Income Statement

Theriva Biologics has consistently reported zero revenue over the years, reflecting challenges in generating sales. The company has an increasing net loss trend, with the most recent figure of -$25.65 million, indicating deteriorating profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, reinforcing operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting minimal leverage, a positive sign of financial stability. However, the declining stockholders' equity from $65.41 million in 2021 to $19.07 million in 2024 highlights significant financial strain. Total assets have decreased, further indicating a weakening financial position.

Cash Flow

Theriva Biologics exhibits a negative operating cash flow, with a deteriorating trend from -$12.89 million in 2021 to -$16.94 million in 2024. The free cash flow remains negative, indicating a persistent inability to generate cash from operations. Financing cash flows are positive, suggesting reliance on external funding.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
0.00	-135.00K	-268.00K	-87.00K	-201.00K
	EBIT
-26.35M	-21.43M	-21.58M	-14.27M	-10.16M
	EBITDA
-26.35M	-19.85M	-21.58M	-14.19M	-9.96M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-25.65M	-18.35M	-19.68M	-14.17M	-10.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.61M	23.18M	41.79M	67.33M	6.23M
	Total Assets
35.35M	55.22M	71.86M	70.36M	8.41M
	Total Debt
1.47M	2.15M	1.68M	1.53M	473.00K
	Net Debt
-10.14M	-21.02M	-40.10M	-65.80M	-5.75M
	Total Liabilities
16.29M	15.52M	17.30M	4.96M	3.15M
	Stockholders Equity
19.07M	39.70M	54.56M	65.41M	8.03M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-16.94M	-19.20M	-19.20M	-12.90M	-12.18M
	Operating Cash Flow
-16.94M	-19.00M	-19.08M	-12.89M	-12.17M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.00K	-202.00K	-4.40M	-14.00K	-9.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
5.50M	625.00K	-1.93M	74.00M	3.36M

Theriva Biologics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOVX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.26, below the 50-day MA of 1.23, and below the 200-day MA of 2.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.24 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TOVX.

Theriva Biologics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.17B	3.59	-42.19%	2.82%	15.05%	-0.04%
TOVX	45 Neutral	$3.78M	―	-87.31%	―	―	6.87%
JAGX	41 Neutral	$7.35M	―	-522.60%	―	19.75%	95.65%
TTNP	34 Underperform	$4.65M	―	-103.63%	―	-100.00%	28.48%

Theriva Biologics Corporate Events

Theriva Biologics Reports Positive VIRAGE Phase 2b Results

On March 31, 2025, Theriva Biologics announced positive outcomes from a second Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC) review of the VIRAGE Phase 2b clinical trial for VCN-01 in combination with chemotherapy for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The review found VCN-01 to be well tolerated with an adverse event profile consistent with previous trials, indicating the feasibility of repeated dosing. This development could guide the design of a potential Phase 3 trial, impacting the company’s future clinical strategies and regulatory discussions.