Taylor Morrison (TMHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.78B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 6.98%
• EPS Growth: 9.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 2.01
• Shares Outstanding: 97,725,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,447,839
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,192,971
• PEG Ratio: 0.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.78
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.75
• 1Y Price Target: $73.00
• Price Target Upside: 23.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.90B

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: $66.00 ▲(11.60% Upside)

Taylor Morrison's overall stock score reflects a strong financial foundation and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and mixed earnings call results. The company's strategic initiatives and cost management provide a positive outlook despite current market challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Stability

A low debt-to-equity ratio indicates strong financial stability, providing Taylor Morrison with the flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow growth enhances Taylor Morrison's ability to reinvest in its business, pay down debt, and return capital to shareholders, supporting long-term financial health.

Innovation in Sales

The introduction of AI-powered tools can improve customer engagement and sales efficiency, potentially leading to increased market share and revenue growth over time.

Negative Factors

Decline in Net Orders

A decline in net orders suggests potential challenges in demand, which could impact future revenue and growth prospects if not addressed through strategic initiatives.

Backlog Reduction

A significant reduction in backlog can lead to lower future revenue visibility, necessitating adjustments in operational strategies to stabilize long-term growth.

Challenging Market Conditions

Persistent market challenges in key regions like Texas could hinder Taylor Morrison's ability to maintain its market position and growth trajectory if not effectively managed.

Taylor Morrison Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States. The company designs, builds, and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes; and develops lifestyle and master-planned communities. It also develops and constructs multi-use properties consisting of commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties under the Urban Form brand name; and offers title insurance and closing settlement services, as well as financial services. In addition, the company operates under the Taylor Morrison, William Lyon Signature, and Darling Homes brand names in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North and South Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Taylor Morrison generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential properties. The company constructs homes and communities, selling these homes directly to consumers or through real estate agents. Key revenue streams include the sale of new homes, which account for the majority of its earnings, as well as revenue from financial services, including mortgage origination and title insurance. Additionally, TMHC may benefit from land development and management services. The company's strategic partnerships with suppliers and subcontractors help manage construction costs and timelines, contributing to its profitability. Market demand, favorable interest rates, and economic conditions also play significant roles in influencing its revenue.

Taylor Morrison Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Taylor Morrison exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, solid profitability, and improved leverage ratios. The company effectively manages its cash flows, supporting ongoing operations and growth initiatives. While maintaining a strong equity position, Taylor Morrison is well-positioned to navigate industry challenges and capitalize on opportunities.

Income Statement

Taylor Morrison has shown robust revenue growth over the past periods, with a recent TTM revenue increase of 2.88% from the previous year. The company maintains a solid gross profit margin of 24.1% and a net profit margin of 10.75% for the TTM, indicating strong profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 15.03% and 15.4%, respectively. Overall, the income statement reflects a stable and profitable growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a favorable equity ratio of 64.09%, suggesting a strong equity position relative to total assets. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly to 0.012 in the latest TTM, enhancing the financial stability. Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 14.91% for TTM, reflecting efficient equity utilization, though slightly lower than the previous year's 15.06%.

Cash Flow

Taylor Morrison displays a positive trend in cash flow management, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 182.21% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 0.58, while the free cash flow to net income ratio is commendable at 0.54, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.38B	8.17B	7.42B	8.22B	7.50B	6.13B
Gross Profit	1.99B	2.01B	1.79B	2.12B	1.56B	1.06B
EBITDA	1.26B	1.28B	1.13B	1.51B	894.79M	529.26M
Net Income	853.61M	883.31M	768.93M	1.05B	663.03M	243.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.63B	9.30B	8.67B	8.47B	8.73B	7.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	370.59M	487.15M	798.57M	724.49M	832.82M	532.84M
Total Debt	2.26B	2.20B	2.10B	2.58B	3.40B	3.01B
Total Liabilities	3.43B	3.42B	3.34B	3.82B	4.76B	4.14B
Stockholders Equity	6.18B	5.87B	5.31B	4.63B	3.93B	3.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	580.03M	173.75M	772.74M	1.08B	355.45M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	619.33M	210.08M	806.17M	1.11B	376.65M	1.12B
Investing Cash Flow	-148.20M	-136.44M	-97.19M	-14.88M	-74.26M	-312.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-357.51M	-393.57M	-628.51M	-1.20B	-155.00K	-604.94M

Taylor Morrison Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 59.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 59.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.87, below the 50-day MA of 65.04, and below the 200-day MA of 62.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMHC.

Taylor Morrison Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TOL	78 Outperform	$12.88B	9.82	17.73%	0.73%	3.26%	-6.40%
PHM	70 Outperform	$23.32B	9.21	21.57%	0.74%	1.76%	-4.24%
TMHC	70 Neutral	$5.78B	7.12	14.31%	―	6.98%	9.74%
DHI	66 Neutral	$43.40B	12.58	14.48%	1.04%	-6.93%	-19.41%
LEN	64 Neutral	$30.81B	12.02	10.63%	1.64%	-4.69%	-32.95%
NVR	64 Neutral	$20.51B	15.68	34.80%	―	3.99%	-6.94%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Taylor Morrison Corporate Events

Taylor Morrison Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, a prominent national homebuilder and land developer, is recognized for its diverse housing offerings, catering to a wide range of consumers from first-time buyers to those seeking resort lifestyle homes. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, the company announced a net income of $201 million, or $2.01 per diluted share, with adjusted net income reaching $211 million, or $2.11 per diluted share. Despite challenging market conditions, Taylor Morrison achieved home closings revenue of $2.0 billion from 3,324 closings at an average sales price of $602,000.

Taylor Morrison’s Earnings Call: Mixed Results and Optimism

The recent earnings call for Taylor Morrison Home Corporation painted a mixed picture, highlighting both strong performances and notable challenges. The company showcased impressive strides in financial services, digital innovation, and improved cycle times. However, it also faced hurdles such as a decline in net orders, reduced backlog, and market difficulties in regions like Texas. Despite these challenges, Taylor Morrison’s strategic focus on cost management and innovation offers a positive outlook for the future.

Fletcher Previn Resigns from Taylor Morrison Board

On September 14, 2025, Fletcher Previn resigned from the Board of Directors of Taylor Morrison Home Corporation due to other commitments, with no disagreements with the company. Following his resignation, the Board reduced its size from nine to eight members, reflecting a strategic adjustment in its governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMHC) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Taylor Morrison stock, see the TMHC Stock Forecast page.