Teekay (TK) AI Stock Analysis

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Teekay

(NYSE:TK)

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Rating:83Outperform

Price Target:$17.50▲(30.21% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/18/26

The score is driven primarily by materially strengthened financial performance (higher revenue and margins, strong cash generation, and sharply reduced leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E). Technicals support the uptrend but look somewhat stretched short-term (high stochastic), while the earnings call adds support via strong guidance/operating metrics but notes meaningful geopolitical and market-volatility risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue and Margin ExpansionThe sharp improvement in revenue and profitability indicates strong operating performance and enhanced earnings capacity. If margins remain supported by fleet utilization and tanker demand, Teekay can generate more internal funding for fleet investment and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Tanker-Market CyclicalityThe historical swings show that Teekay's earnings remain sensitive to tanker rates and market conditions. Strong current results may therefore normalize or reverse during weaker freight cycles, making sustained margins and cash generation less predictable across the next several quarters.

Teekay (TK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $1.18B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 527.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.9
Beta (1Y): 0.54
Revenue Growth: 15.98%
EPS Growth: 130.59%
Country: US
Employees: 2,130
Sector: Energy
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream

Teekay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Teekay Corporation specializes in global marine transportation, primarily handling crude oil and various other maritime cargo. The company offers a wide range of services, including ship-to-ship transfers for the oil, gas, and dry bulk industries, as...

How the Company Makes Money

Teekay makes money primarily by earning fees for providing marine transportation and related services using its fleet and shipping interests. Its core revenue model is based on chartering arrangements, where customers pay to use Teekay’s vessels to m...

Teekay Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:17.38%|Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2025

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call emphasized exceptionally strong near-term financial and operational performance — record adjusted net income, record spot rates, substantial free cash flow, a debt-free balance sheet and active fleet renewal — which materially strengthen Teekay Tankers' financial flexibility and shareholder optionality. However, material risks were highlighted: significant geopolitical disruptions that are creating routing inefficiencies and volatility, inventory and demand timing uncertainty, short-term off-hire impacts from dry-docking, and potential longer-term fleet supply risks from a swollen order book. On balance, the company's strong earnings, cash generation and balance sheet position outweigh the operational and market risks discussed.

Positive Updates

Record Quarterly Earnings

GAAP net income of $226 million ($6.49/share) and adjusted net income of $194 million ($5.56/share) in Q2 2026 — adjusted net income was 50% higher than the prior quarter and marks the company's highest ever quarterly adjusted net income.

Negative Updates

Aframax Mid-Quarter Softening and Volatility

Aframax rates softened mid-quarter due to a buildup of tonnage in the Atlantic and lack of arbitrage opportunities, causing a divergence versus Suezmax and VLCC segments before rates strengthened again in July.

Company Guidance

Guidance highlights: for Q3 Teekay Tankers has ~44% of spot days booked at secured rates of $104,800/day (Suezmax) and $59,900/day (Aframax LR2); management expects ~260 off‑hire drydock days in Q3, OpEx and G&A to be ~$3m lower versus Q2 with slightly lower tax expense, and the July VLCC sale of $84.5m is expected to produce a ~$23m gain in Q3; the company declared its regular quarterly dividend of $0.25/share and closed Q2 with GAAP net income of $226m ($6.49/share), adjusted net income of $194m ($5.56/share), ~ $200m free cash flow from operations in Q2, an annualized H1 free cash flow run‑rate of $684m (nearly $20/share), cash > $1.2bn and no debt, and a free cash flow breakeven of ≈$9,700/day—while continuing fleet renewal (two Suezmax newbuilds for $190m delivering 2027; one 2009 Suezmax sold for $53.5m with a $32.3m gain in Q2; nine older vessels sold for $369.5m with $125m combined gains over the past 12 months; seven modern vessels acquired/committed for ≈$427m).

Teekay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2026 TTM step-up: revenue +43.2%, net margin ~23.3% (vs ~10.3% in 2025), and very high EBIT/EBITDA margins (~48.3%/~52.4%). Balance sheet improved sharply with debt down to ~$37.5M (debt/equity ~0.05x) and strong ROE (~30.7%). Main risk is cyclicality/volatility with prior revenue and cash-flow swings across 2021–2025.

Income Statement

84Very Positive

Balance Sheet

88Very Positive

Cash Flow

81Very Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.48B	949.52M	1.22B	1.46B	1.19B	682.51M
Gross Profit	771.81M	261.40M	393.86M	580.63M	293.03M	-49.73M
EBITDA	827.96M	436.93M	503.15M	655.14M	348.67M	-107.93M
Net Income	240.25M	98.11M	133.77M	150.64M	78.41M	7.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.65B	2.40B	2.15B	2.20B	2.16B	6.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.27B	973.43M	717.77M	652.68M	519.86M	120.99M
Total Debt	37.50M	46.38M	65.55M	227.20M	610.16M	1.02B
Total Liabilities	216.03M	234.22M	217.95M	396.29M	795.24M	4.10B
Stockholders Equity	760.67M	724.53M	709.76M	732.28M	623.46M	515.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	328.48M	108.51M	391.84M	619.62M	183.72M	54.54M
Operating Cash Flow	535.10M	301.77M	467.19M	629.82M	199.15M	75.99M
Investing Cash Flow	-381.56M	80.43M	157.50M	54.66M	308.98M	7.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-210.01M	-129.77M	-416.45M	-520.41M	-456.95M	-223.53M

Teekay Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price13.44

Price Trends

50DMA14.16Negative

100DMA12.83Positive

200DMA12.46Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.02Positive

RSI38.52Neutral

STOCH15.76Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.52, below the 50-day MA of 14.16, and above the 200-day MA of 12.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TK.

Teekay Risk Analysis

Teekay disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Teekay reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate16
Tech & Innovation4
Legal & Regulatory14
Production8
Ability to Sell8
Macro & Political9

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk

1.The use of artificial intelligence in our operations may not result in expected benefits, and the use of artificial intelligence by any of our competitors may give them advantages relative to us.Q4, 2025

Teekay Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

TK against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMPP	88Outperform	$223.55M	2.21	16.62%	―	89.03%	80.68%
TK	83Outperform	$1.24B	4.89	32.35%	―	15.98%	130.59%
LPG	81Outperform	$2.22B	6.54	28.44%	7.99%	81.06%	556.47%
TEN	71Outperform	$1.45B	4.74	16.94%	4.27%	23.23%	252.83%
GLNG	66Neutral	$4.66B	28.05	8.62%	2.23%	94.64%	―
Sector *	65Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
RBNE	55Neutral	$208.37K	0.01	9.00%	―	―	―

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TK and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TK	Teekay Corporation	13.44	3.69	37.85%
GLNG	Golar LNG Limited	44.88	6.53	17.03%
TEN	Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited	46.80	23.91	104.47%
LPG	Dorian LPG	49.43	24.69	99.78%
IMPP	Imperial Petroleum, Inc.	4.62	-0.99	-17.65%
RBNE	Robin Energy Ltd.	0.14	-84.61	-99.84%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026

Teekay AI Stock Analysis