TBC Bank (TBCCF) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive overall. The company reported record profit, sustained returns above 23%, strong loan growth, resilient Georgian performance, growing digital adoption, improving Uzbekistan momentum outside instant cash loans, stable group asset quality and substantial shareholder distributions. The main challenges were higher group expenses, elevated Uzbekistan NPL and cost-of-risk levels, the ongoing Uzbekistan portfolio recalibration, uncertainty around auto-collection restrictions and near-term pressure on Uzbekistan operating jaws.

Guidance included TBC Capital’s expectation for Georgia real GDP growth of 7.4% for the full year and Uzbekistan GDP growth of 8.2%, with inflation expected to remain broadly stable for the rest of the year in Georgia and with a broadly stable outlook for the final quarter of the year in Uzbekistan; excluding the potential impact of changes to auto collections and all else being equal, fourth quarter cost of risk in Uzbekistan is expected to remain broadly consistent with what we've seen in the second and third quarter, while positive operating jaws are expected from Uzbekistan as we progress through '27; 2027 loan growth and NIM were described as too early to guide, although NIM was said to carry upside risk as opposed to downside risk; the 2026 to 2028 target is 15% loan growth, the 2026 to 2028 payout target is 25% to 45%, 2027 consumer market-share growth is forecast to be minimum to increase market share by around 1.5% to 2%, Uzbekistan is intended to generate up to 20%, 25% of group net profits, with potential to deliver minimum 20% of profits in 2030, and Amex acquiring is expected to increase by 1% to 2% during next year.