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Sable Offshore (SOC) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q2, 2026
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 10, 2026
Risk Change Over Time
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1Our assumptions and estimates regarding the total costs associated with the OS&T Strategy may be inaccurate.
If pursued, we currently estimate remaining start-up expenses associated with the OS&T Strategy of approximately $475.0 million to recommence offshore oil sales, excluding corporate working capital. The expenditures will primarily be directed towards the procurement of a suitable vessel and necessary upgrade and installation costs with respect to such vessel and our platforms, and obtaining necessary regulatory approvals. This estimate of costs to recommence offshore oil sales considers currently available facts and presently enacted laws and regulations, but it is subject to uncertainties associated with the assumptions that we have made. For example, because the markets for OS&T vessels and vessel refurbishment and upgrading are competitive, and our estimates for the cost of procurement and planned upgrades are based on our understanding of the relevant markets and current supply of suitable vessels and contracts, the actual cost of such a vessel and the related upgrades may exceed our expectations. In addition, the costs of equipment, repairs and maintenance, the costs of operating personnel, the costs to obtain governmental approvals, and legal, consulting and other professional expenses could turn out to be higher than we have estimated. In addition, if we pursue the OS&T Strategy, we will need to procure additional financing, which may not be available on acceptable terms or at all. We also may experience increases in costs and delays. In addition, the New Senior Secured Credit Facilities limit our capital expenditures, our general and administrative costs and our ability to incur additional debt, and accordingly we may require consent of the lenders in order to complete the capital expenditures and general and administrative costs necessary to implement the OS&T strategy and/or incur additional indebtedness to fund such expenditures.
- Debt & Financing - Risk 2Restrictive covenants in the New Senior Secured Credit Facilities or any future agreements governing our indebtedness could limit our growth and our ability to finance our operations, fund our capital needs, respond to changing conditions and engage in other business activities that may be in our best interests.
Restrictive covenants in the New Senior Secured Facilities impose significant operating and financial restrictions on us and our subsidiaries and we may be prevented from taking advantage of business opportunities that arise because of the limitations imposed on us by the New Senior Secured Credit Facilities unless we obtain amendments or waivers from the applicable lenders. These restrictions limit our ability to, subject to certain exceptions, among other things: - engage in mergers, consolidations, liquidations, or dissolutions;- create or incur debt or liens;- make certain debt prepayments (including in respect of the Notes);- pay dividends, distributions or certain other restricted payments;- make investments, capital expenditures, general and administrative expenditures, acquisitions or loans;- operate in certain geographical boundaries;- sell, assign, farm-out or dispose of any property;- enter into transactions with affiliates;- enter into, subject to certain exceptions, any agreement that prohibits or restricts liens securing the New Senior Secured Credit Facilities, payments of dividends to us, or payment of debt owed to us and our subsidiaries; and - create new subsidiaries or change the nature of our business. The New Senior Secured Credit Facilities also contain representations and warranties, affirmative covenants, additional negative covenants and events of default (including a change of control), including in the case of the Term Loan B, amortization and repayments of principal with excess cash flow, subject to a minimum liquidity amount. The New Senior Secured Credit Facilities also require us to (x) hedge within five business days of the closing of the New Senior Secured Credit Facilities, 100% of reasonably anticipated production of crude oil from proved, developed and producing oil and gas properties for each calendar month through December 15, 2028 and (y) on a go forward basis, use commercially reasonable efforts to hedge substantially all of the anticipated production of crude oil from proved, developed and producing oil and gas properties through December 15, 2028, which may limit our ability to realize the benefits of higher commodity prices.
- Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 3In order to commence offshore oil sales pursuant to the OS&T Strategy or the Buoy Strategy, we will require clearances and permitting, including from BOEM.
If we choose to implement the OS&T Strategy or the Buoy Strategy, we may experience delays in obtaining or be unable to obtain required permits, including authorizations necessary to recommence offshore oil sales pursuant to the OS&T Strategy or the Buoy Strategy, which may delay or interrupt our operations and limit our growth and revenue or may impact our ability to service and repay or refinance the New Senior Secured Credit Facilities or the notes. In particular, prior to implementation of the OS&T Strategy or the Buoy Strategy, regulatory authorizations are required, including clearance from BOEM. If we do not receive regulatory clearances in connection with the OS&T Strategy or the Buoy Strategy in a timely manner, we may not be able to reach commercial sales pursuant to the OS&T Strategy or the Buoy Strategy. While the previous operator of the SYU was able to utilize the OS&T Strategy to process SYU production in federal waters from 1981 to 1994 under previously issued permits, there is no assurance that we will be able to successfully obtain the agency clearance or permits required to recommence oil sales pursuant to the OS&T Strategy or that no additional state or federal clearances or permits will be required in the future.
Risk Highlights Q2, 2026
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 59
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1We no longer qualify as an "emerging growth company" and will be required to comply with certain provisions of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. We can no longer take advantage of reduced disclosure requirements applicable to emerging growth companies.
Based on the market value of our common stock held by non-affiliates as of June 30, 2025, we no longer qualify as an "emerging growth company" as defined in the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act (the "JOBS Act"), as of December 31, 2025. As a result, we may incur additional and increasing costs to comply with our reporting and other obligations that we had not historically incurred due to our status as an emerging growth company or as a smaller reporting company. These costs include (i) being required to comply with the auditor attestation requirements of Section 404, (ii) increased disclosure obligations regarding executive compensation in our periodic reports and proxy statements, and (iii) requirements of holding a nonbinding advisory vote on executive compensation and stockholder approval of any golden parachute payments not previously approved. These additional obligations will require us to dedicate internal resources, engage outside consultants, and adopt a detailed work plan to assess and document the adequacy of internal controls over financial reporting, continue steps to improve control processes, as appropriate, validate through testing that controls are functioning as documented, and implement a continuous reporting and improvement process for internal controls over financial reporting.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2Our warrant agreement designates the courts of the State of New York or the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York as the sole and exclusive forum for certain types of actions and proceedings that may be initiated by holders of our warrants, which could limit the ability of Warrant Holders to obtain a favorable judicial forum for disputes with our company.
Our warrant agreement provides that, subject to applicable law, (i) any action, proceeding or claim against us arising out of or relating in any way to the warrant agreement, including under the Securities Act, will be brought and enforced in the courts of the State of New York or the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, and (ii) that we irrevocably submit to such jurisdiction, which jurisdiction will be the exclusive forum for any such action, proceeding or claim. Under our warrant agreement, we also agree that we will waive any objection to such exclusive jurisdiction and that such courts represent an inconvenient forum. Notwithstanding the foregoing, these provisions of the warrant agreement do not apply to suits brought to enforce any liability or duty created by the Exchange Act or any other claim for which the federal district courts of the United States of America are the sole and exclusive forum. Any person or entity purchasing or otherwise acquiring any interest in any of our warrants will be deemed to have notice of and to have consented to the forum provisions in our warrant agreement. If any action, the subject matter of which is within the scope of the forum provisions of the warrant agreement, is filed in a court other than a court of the State of New York or the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York (a "foreign action") in the name of any holder of our warrants, such holder will be deemed to have consented to: (x) the personal jurisdiction of the state and federal courts located in the State of New York in connection with any action brought in any such court to enforce the forum provisions (an "enforcement action"), and (y) having service of process made upon such Warrant Holder in any such enforcement action by service upon such Warrant Holder's counsel in the foreign action as agent for such Warrant Holder. This choice-of-forum provision may limit a Warrant Holder's ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum that it finds favorable for disputes with our company, which may discourage such lawsuits. Alternatively, if a court were to find this provision of our warrant agreement inapplicable or unenforceable with respect to one or more of the specified types of actions or proceedings, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving such matters in other jurisdictions, which could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations and result in a diversion of the time and resources of our management and board of directors.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 3Our issuance of additional shares of Common Stock or convertible securities may dilute your ownership of us and could adversely affect our stock price.
We filed a registration statement on Form S-8 on April 19, 2024 providing for the registration of shares of our Common Stock issued or reserved for issuance under the Sable Offshore Corp. 2023 Incentive Award Plan (the "Incentive Plan"). The Incentive Plan provides for automatic increases in the shares reserved for grant or issuance under the plan which could result in additional dilution to our stockholders. Subject to the satisfaction of vesting conditions and the expiration of any applicable lockup restrictions, shares registered under the registration statement on Form S-8 will generally be available for resale immediately in the public market without restriction. From time to time in the future, we may also issue additional shares of our Common Stock or securities convertible into our Common Stock pursuant to a variety of transactions, including acquisitions. The issuance by us of additional shares of our Common Stock or securities convertible into our Common Stock would dilute your ownership of us and the sale of a significant amount of such shares in the public market could adversely affect prevailing market prices of our Common Stock. In the future, we may seek to obtain financing or to further increase our capital resources by issuing additional shares of our capital stock or offering debt or other equity securities, including senior or subordinated notes, debt securities convertible into equity, or shares of preferred stock. Issuing additional shares of our capital stock, other equity securities, or securities convertible into equity may dilute the economic and voting rights of our existing stockholders, reduce the market price of our Common Stock, or both. Debt securities convertible into equity could be subject to adjustments in the conversion ratio pursuant to which certain events may increase the number of equity securities issuable upon conversion. Preferred stock, if issued, could have a preference with respect to liquidating distributions or a preference with respect to dividend payments that could limit our ability to pay dividends to the holders of our Common Stock. Our decision to issue securities in any future offering will depend on market conditions and other factors beyond our control, which may adversely affect the amount, timing or nature of our future offerings. As a result, holders of our Common Stock bear the risk that our future offerings may reduce the market price of our Common Stock and dilute their percentage ownership.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 4Future sales, or the perception of future sales, of our Common Stock by us or our existing stockholders in the public market could cause the market price for our Common Stock to decline.
The sale of substantial amounts of shares of our Common Stock in the public market, or the perception that such sales could occur, could harm the prevailing market price of shares of our Common Stock. These sales, or the possibility that these sales may occur, also might make it more difficult for us to sell equity securities in the future at a time and at a price that we deem appropriate. Shares held by certain of our stockholders will be eligible for resale, subject to, in the case of certain stockholders, volume, manner of sale and other limitations under Rule 144. In addition, pursuant to the Registration Rights Agreement entered into by and among Sable and certain stockholders party thereto, such stockholders will be entitled to customary registration rights for 3,000,000 shares of our Common Stock following their respective lock-up periods. The sale or possibility of sale of these securities could have the effect of increasing the volatility in our share price or putting significant downward pressure on the price of our Common Stock.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 5If securities or industry analysts do not publish research or reports about us, or publish negative reports, our stock price and trading volume could decline.
The trading market for our Common Stock will depend, in part, on the research and reports that securities or industry analysts publish about us. We will not have any control over these analysts. If our financial performance fails to meet analyst estimates or one or more of the analysts who cover us downgrade our Common Stock or change their opinion, our stock price would likely decline. If one or more of these analysts cease coverage of us or fail to regularly publish reports on us, we could lose visibility in the financial markets, which could cause our stock price or trading volume to decline.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 6The NYSE may not continue to list our securities, which could limit investors' ability to make transactions in our securities and subject us to additional trading restrictions.
We cannot assure you that our securities will continue to be listed on the NYSE in the future. In order for our securities to remain listed on the NYSE, we must maintain certain financial, distribution and stock price levels. If the NYSE delists our securities from trading on its exchange and we are not able to list our securities on another national securities exchange, we expect our securities could be quoted on an over-the-counter market. If this were to occur, we could face significant material adverse consequences, including: - a limited availability of market quotations for our securities;- reduced liquidity for our securities;- a determination that our Common Stock is a "penny stock," which would require brokers trading in such securities to adhere to more stringent rules, could adversely impact the value of our securities and/ or possibly result in a reduced level of trading activity in the secondary trading market for our securities;- a limited amount of news and analyst coverage; and - a decreased ability to issue additional securities or obtain additional financing in the future.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 7We are, and may continue to be, subject to short selling strategies and related public allegations, which could lead to a decline in the price of our Common Stock and have a material adverse effect on our reputation and results of operations.
Short selling is the practice of selling securities that the seller does not own but rather has borrowed from a third party with the intention of buying identical securities back at a later date to return to the lender. The short seller hopes to profit from a decline in the value of the securities between the sale of the borrowed securities and the purchase of the replacement shares, as the short seller expects to pay less in that purchase than it received in the sale. To facilitate the decline in stock price, short sellers may engage in strategies to publish, or arrange for the publication of, opinions regarding the relevant issuer and its business prospects to create negative market momentum and generate profits for themselves after selling a stock short. Such short selling strategies have resulted in considerable selling of the targeted issuer's shares in the market. We are, and may in the future may be, the subject of unfavorable allegations made by short sellers. For example, on October 31, 2025, Hunterbrook Media issued a report to short sellers that contained certain allegations against us. In response, our Board of Directors formed a special committee to oversee an independent investigation of the matters referenced in the report. The investigation is ongoing and we may or may not uncover additional material information as the investigation moves forward. As a result, we are unable to predict the outcome or to reasonably estimate the time or expense it may take to resolve these matters. We may, in the future, become subject to additional unfavorable reports. Any such allegations may be followed by periods of instability in the market price of our shares of Common Stock and negative publicity. Any related inquiry or formal investigation from a governmental organization or other regulatory body, or resulting litigation from private claimants, could result in a material diversion of our management's time and could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. Such a situation could be costly and time-consuming and could distract our management from operating our business.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 8The market prices of our securities could be highly volatile or may decline regardless of our operating performance. You may lose some or all of your investment.
The trading price of our Common Stock is likely to be volatile and subject to significant fluctuations. The trading price of our Common Stock will depend on many factors, including those described in this "Risk Factors" section, many of which are beyond our control and may not be related to our operating performance. You may not be able to resell your shares at an attractive price due to a number of factors, such as the following: - actual or anticipated fluctuations in our annual or quarterly financial results or the financial results of companies perceived to be similar to ours;- changes in the market's expectations about our operating results;- the public's reaction to our press releases, other public announcements and filings with the SEC;- speculation in the press or investment community;- actual or anticipated developments in our business, competitors' businesses or the competitive landscape generally;- our success in satisfying permitting and other regulatory requirements to resume full production;- our success in satisfying permitting and other regulatory requirements to resume petroleum transportation through Pipeline Segments 324 and 325 of the Santa Ynez Pipeline System or obtain alternate transportation;- our ability to obtain water, drilling fluids and other critical resources;- the accuracy of our assumptions and estimates regarding the total costs associated with resuming and maintaining production and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System;- the market prices of oil, natural gas and NGL;- the success of our hedging strategy;- our ability to manage the safety risks associated with offshore development and production;- our success in retaining or recruiting, or changes required in, our officers, key employees or directors;- future laws and regulations related to climate change, GHGs and ESG and administrative interpretations thereof;- changes in the future operating results of the Company;- operating and stock price performance of other companies that investors deem comparable to ours;- changes in laws and regulations affecting our business;- commencement of, or involvement in, litigation involving the Company;- changes in our capital structure, such as future issuances of securities or the incurrence of additional debt;- the volume of our Common Stock available for public sale;- any major change in our Board or management;- sales of substantial amounts of our Common Stock by our directors, officers or significant stockholders or the perception that such sales could occur; and - other risk factors and other matters described or referenced under the sections "Risk Factors" and "Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements." Broad market and industry factors may materially harm the market price of our securities irrespective of our operating performance. The stock market in general and the NYSE have experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations that have often been unrelated or disproportionate to the operating performance of the particular companies affected. The trading prices and valuations of these stocks, and of our securities, may not be predictable. A loss of investor confidence in the market for the stocks of other companies which investors perceive to be similar to ours could depress our Common Stock price regardless of our business, prospects, financial conditions or results of operations. In addition, in the past, following periods of volatility in the overall market and the market prices of particular companies' securities, securities class action litigations have often been instituted against these companies. Litigation of this type, if instituted against us, could result in substantial costs and a diversion of our management's attention and resources. Any adverse determination in any such litigation or any amounts paid to settle any such actual or threatened litigation could require that we make significant payments. Our stock price may be exposed to additional risks because we became a public company through a "de-SPAC" transaction. There has been increased focus by government agencies on such transactions, and we expect that increased focus to continue, and we may be subject to increased scrutiny by the SEC and other government agencies on holders of our securities as a result, which could adversely affect the price of our Common Stock.
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