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Summit Midstream (SMC) AI Stock Analysis

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SMC

Summit Midstream

(NYSE:SMC)

Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:$32.00â–²(3.59% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/11/26

SMC’s score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (positive TTM earnings, stronger margins, and a sharply improved reported leverage profile) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with raised EBITDA guidance and clear multi-year growth projects. These positives are tempered by mixed cash-flow quality (negative TTM free cash flow), still-thin profitability, and weak technical signals (negative MACD and trading below key moving averages). Valuation contributes little support given the negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors
Raised EBITDA guidance and multi-year growthHigher guidance and a multi-year EBITDA growth outlook indicate improving operating momentum supported by customer development across dedicated acreage and long-term Double E contracts. If delivered, this growth can strengthen scale, utilization, and future cash-generation capacity.
Negative Factors
Thin and historically volatile profitabilityThe return to positive earnings is encouraging, but the narrow margin leaves limited protection if volumes, expenses, or customer activity weaken. Multiple recent loss years also indicate that current profitability has not yet demonstrated the consistency needed for a durable earnings base.

Summit Midstream (SMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%SMC+31.34%SPY+14.30%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$425.78M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
106.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-83.5
Beta (1Y)
0.36
Revenue Growth
17.58%
EPS Growth
88.79%
Country
US
Employees
296
Sector
Energy
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Oil & Gas Midstream

Summit Midstream Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Summit Midstream Corporation specializes in managing and developing critical energy infrastructure, primarily across the continental United States' significant shale formations. The company oversees extensive collection networks for natural gas, crud...

How the Company Makes Money

SMC primarily makes money by charging customers (typically oil and natural gas producers) fees for midstream services under contracts tied to the volumes of hydrocarbons moved and handled through its systems. Key revenue streams generally include: (1...

Summit Midstream Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 09, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:10.48%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 17, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly optimistic, with record-level quarterly performance, raised 2026 EBITDA guidance, improving leverage, substantial customer activity visibility, and multiple organic growth projects across the Rockies, Permian, and Mid-Con. The main challenges were the expiration of Piceance MVC support, higher operating expenses in that segment, potential future expansion capital requirements, commodity price sensitivity below $60, and an unfavorable M&A valuation environment.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $70.7 million, up 16% from the second quarter and described as one of the strongest quarters in Summit's history. The increase was driven primarily by the Rockies segment.

Negative Updates

Piceance EBITDA Decline and Higher Operating Expenses
Piceance adjusted EBITDA decreased $0.4 million from the second quarter to $8.3 million because higher operating expenses offset a 4.2% increase in volume throughput. No new wells were connected during the quarter.

Company Guidance

Summit raised full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $250 million to $260 million, from $235 million to $255 million previously, and continues to expect full year capital expenditures, including Double E, of roughly $100 million to $120 million, with total net leverage at approximately 3.6x at year-end; for 2027, it expects to connect 200 to 250 wells, while Rockies segment adjusted EBITDA could reach as high as a 30% CAGR over the next 2 years and company adjusted EBITDA could grow at a mid- to high teens compound annual growth rate over the next several years. Double E adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow from approximately $40 million in 2026 to over $100 million in 2029, with $130 million to $140 million of capital net to Summit, the mainline compression expansion expected online by the end of 2028 and increasing mainline and delivery capacity to the Waha by 50%, and a Phase 2 expansion potentially adding an additional Bcf a day plus of bidirectional capacity in the 2030 time frame. The company expects to consider a dividend policy towards early next year after reaching its mid to 3.5x leverage ratio, with a distribution expected to start relatively small.

Summit Midstream Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operational results have improved in TTM with net income turning positive ($14.9M), revenue growing (TTM +6.2%), and a stronger gross margin (~44%). Offsetting this, profitability remains thin (TTM net margin ~2.4%), historical earnings have been volatile with multiple loss years, and TTM free cash flow is negative (-$23.1M) despite positive operating cash flow (~$110M). The balance sheet looks de-risked in the latest data (reported total debt $0; debt-to-equity 0.0), but reported returns on equity remain slightly negative.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

68Positive

Cash Flow

55Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue619.45M562.09M429.62M458.90M369.59M401.56M
Gross Profit215.70M149.65M113.01M122.94M89.56M245.41M
EBITDA225.74M207.43M250.53M225.86M81.17M187.22M
Net Income1.50M-1.91M-113.17M-38.95M-123.46M-19.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.43B2.39B2.36B2.49B2.56B2.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments12.48M9.27M22.82M14.04M11.81M7.35M
Total Debt1.25B1.05B993.58M1.48B1.50B1.36B
Total Liabilities1.49B1.30B1.39B1.65B1.68B1.51B
Stockholders Equity609.11M687.48M467.79M718.56M764.82M904.36M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-23.08M44.55M8.16M58.00M68.27M140.07M
Operating Cash Flow109.99M133.59M61.77M126.91M98.74M165.10M
Investing Cash Flow-92.42M-163.15M487.06M-74.76M-226.56M-165.73M
Financing Cash Flow-22.89M24.04M-540.28M-49.04M121.77M4.66M

Summit Midstream Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price30.89

Price Trends

50DMA31.45Negative
100DMA31.48Negative
200DMA30.72Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.64Negative
RSI53.10Neutral
STOCH64.50Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.03, below the 50-day MA of 31.45, and above the 200-day MA of 30.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMC.

Summit Midstream Risk Analysis

Summit Midstream disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Summit Midstream reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

  • Finance & Corporate18
  • Tech & Innovation1
  • Legal & Regulatory10
  • Production10
  • Ability to Sell5
  • Macro & Political6
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.We cannot guarantee that our Share Repurchase Program will be fully completed or that it will enhance long-term stockholder value. Share repurchases could also increase the volatility of the trading price of our common stock and could diminish our cash reserves.Q2, 2026
2.Tariffs and other trade measures could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial position, and cash flows.Q4, 2025
3.The Tall Oak Acquisition and subsequent changes in stock ownership of the Company (including upon the redemption or exchange of the shares of Class B Common Stock and associated Partnership Common Units for common stock) may trigger a limitation on the utilization of net operating loss carryforwards of the Company.Q4, 2024

Summit Midstream Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

SMC against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
AMAM79Outperform$9.34B14.0033.53%4.50%8.04%44.68%
DTMDTM75Outperform$12.11B25.709.87%2.91%13.36%16.07%
WESWES74Outperform$17.00B13.2031.92%8.95%22.29%-8.55%
HESMHESM66Neutral$6.28B10.5971.29%10.12%-0.60%3.90%
Sector *65Neutral$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
KNTKKNTK65Neutral$8.56B17.78-40.48%6.03%13.85%637.84%
SMCSMC61Neutral$615.33M-83.490.24%―17.58%88.79%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%80%SMCWESAMHESMKNTKDTMDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
SMC and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
SMCSummit Midstream Corporation30.897.1330.01%
WESWestern Midstream Partners, Lp41.325.7416.14%
AMAntero Midstream Corp20.022.6315.15%
HESMHess Midstream Partners Lp30.920.371.20%
KNTKKinetik53.7121.4766.59%
DTMDt Midstream, Inc.119.006.085.39%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2026