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Cassava Sciences (SAVA)
NASDAQ:SAVA
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Cassava Sciences
(NASDAQ:SAVA)
43Neutral
Positive Factors
Cash Reserves
Cassava Sciences has sufficient cash reserves operationally through 2026 despite the trial setbacks.
Partnerships and Licensing
The company’s licensing of rights from Yale to an issued patent to use of simufilam as a potential treatment for seizures related to rare neurodevelopment disorders is seen as a positive development.
Negative Factors
Clinical Trials
Results from the 76-week ReFocus-ALZ Phase 3 trial with simufilam in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease did not meet the study’s pre-specified endpoints.
Regulatory Setbacks
Investment thesis risks include failure of clinical trials to prove efficacy, regulatory requirements for additional clinical studies, and potential need to raise additional funds under poor market conditions.
Stock Performance
The stock is expected to remain range-bound due to uncertainties in simufilam's clinical advancement.
Cassava Sciences (SAVA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$88.40M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)988.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth81.00%
CountryUS
Employees30
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength39
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.48
Shares Outstanding48,307,896
10 Day Avg. Volume711,234
30 Day Avg. Volume988,994
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue-6.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit70.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.00Price Target Upside6.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
Cassava Sciences Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCassava Sciences, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops drugs for neurodegenerative diseases. Its lead therapeutic product candidate is simufilam, a small molecule drug, which is completed Phase 2b clinical trial; and investigational diagnostic product candidate is SavaDx, a blood-based biomarker/diagnostic to detect Alzheimer's disease. The company was formerly known as Pain Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Cassava Sciences, Inc. in March 2019. Cassava Sciences, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyCassava Sciences primarily generates revenue through funding received from government grants and collaborations. As a clinical-stage company, it does not currently derive revenue from product sales, but its financial model anticipates future income from successful commercialization of its therapeutic and diagnostic candidates. The company's earnings potential is significantly influenced by its ability to advance its products through clinical trials, secure regulatory approvals, and establish partnerships for commercialization. Until then, Cassava Sciences relies on investments and grants to fund its research and development activities.
Cassava Sciences Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cassava Sciences exhibits persistent financial challenges with no revenue generation and increasing operational losses. While the balance sheet is strong due to the lack of debt, the negative cash flow trends underscore significant operational sustainability risks.Income Statement
Cassava Sciences shows a consistent lack of revenue generation across multiple years, with negative net income, indicating ongoing operational challenges. The absence of gross profit and declining EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight significant profitability issues.25
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a strong equity position with a high equity ratio and no reported debt, reducing financial risk. However, the consistent net losses and reliance on equity financing reflect potential sustainability concerns.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow and operating cash flow indicate poor cash generation from core operations, worsened by an increasing reliance on financing activities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further emphasizing cash flow challenges.30
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.80K | 0.00 | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| 0.00 | -89.42M | -1.30M | -534.00K | -346.00K | EBIT |
| 0.00 | -105.96M | -80.02M | -32.87M | -6.45M | EBITDA |
| -23.21M | -95.69M | -74.94M | -31.85M | -6.31M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -24.34M | -97.22M | -72.47M | -31.80M | -5.85M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 128.57M | 121.14M | 201.01M | 233.44M | 93.51M | Total Assets |
| 157.53M | 151.66M | 234.83M | 266.78M | 94.30M | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 0.00 | 139.00K | 236.00K | 293.00K | Net Debt |
| -128.57M | -121.14M | -200.88M | -233.20M | -93.21M | Total Liabilities |
| 11.83M | 14.20M | 7.29M | 12.87M | 2.10M | Stockholders Equity |
| 145.70M | 137.47M | 227.54M | 253.91M | 92.20M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -117.03M | -82.44M | -80.23M | -52.41M | -5.38M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -116.93M | -82.03M | -77.51M | -30.20M | -5.38M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -103.00K | -414.00K | -2.71M | -22.21M | 360.00K | Financing Cash Flow |
| 124.47M | 2.56M | 47.80M | 192.34M | 75.45M |
Cassava Sciences Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.88
Price Trends
1.87
Positive
2.20
Negative
12.88
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
61.75
Neutral
89.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAVA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.62, above the 50-day MA of 1.87, and below the 200-day MA of 12.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SAVA.
Cassava Sciences Risk Analysis
Cassava Sciences disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cassava Sciences reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cassava Sciences Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
52 Neutral | $5.14B | 3.39 | -43.55% | 2.83% | 16.49% | -0.19% | |
52 Neutral | $75.71M | ― | -93.42% | ― | 142.42% | 53.38% | |
45 Neutral | $76.37M | ― | -88.03% | ― | -21.28% | 36.26% | |
43 Neutral | $88.40M | ― | -70.59% | ― | ― | 81.00% | |
33 Underperform | $19.98M | ― | -94.52% | ― | ― | 2.98% | |
30 Underperform | $91.09M | ― | -744.59% | ― | ― | 27.65% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SAVA
Cassava Sciences
1.88
-21.13
-91.83%
VERU
Veru
0.50
-0.97
-65.99%
MNOV
Medicinova
1.37
-0.12
-8.05%
CRVO
CervoMed
8.32
-16.40
-66.34%
ELTX
Elicio Therapeutics
5.41
-4.99
-47.98%
VOR
Vor Biopharma
0.17
-1.57
-90.23%
Cassava Sciences Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q3-2024)
| % Change Since: 20.51%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of promising progress in clinical trials and financial stability, but also highlighted increased administrative costs and legal challenges. The anticipation of Phase III trial results is a critical point of focus.Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Phase III Trial Progress
Announced the last patient visit for the Phase III trial RETHINK-ALZ, with top-line results expected by the end of the year.
Cash Position and Financial Stability
Ended Q3 with $149 million in cash, expected to fund operations through the conclusion of ongoing Phase III trials and into 2026.
Reduced R&D Expenses
R&D expenses for Q3 were $17.7 million, down from $23.6 million in the same period last year as more patients transition from Phase III to lower-cost open-label studies.
Biomarker Innovation
Discussed the potential of plasma biomarker tests with high correlation to Alzheimer's diagnosis, which could transform treatment by primary care physicians.
Negative Updates
Increased General and Administrative Expenses
G&A expenses increased to $12.9 million from $4.3 million in Q3 2023, mainly due to higher legal expenses and increased compensation costs.
Settlement with SEC
A $40 million penalty settlement with the SEC, pending court approval, indicating legal challenges.
Potential Trial Challenges
Concerns about trial success if only mild Alzheimer's patients show significant improvement, raising questions about FDA approval if moderate patients underperform.
Company Guidance
During Cassava Sciences' Q3 2024 earnings call, CEO Richard Barry provided guidance on the company's upcoming milestones and financial outlook. He emphasized the anticipated release of top-line results from the Phase III RETHINK-ALZ trial before the end of the year, highlighting the potential for a best-in-class treatment for Alzheimer's disease. The company plans to report biomarker data for approximately 100 patients, focusing on plasma markers such as pTau 217, Neurofilament Light Chain (NFL), Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein (GFAP), and total tau. Financially, Cassava Sciences ended the quarter with $149 million in cash, which is expected to be sufficient for operations through the conclusion of ongoing Phase III trials and into 2026. Net cash used in operations for the first nine months of 2024 was $55.7 million, with projections for the second half ranging between $80 million and $90 million, inclusive of a $40 million SEC settlement. The company's net loss for Q3 was $27.9 million, with R&D expenses decreasing as more patients transition to a lower-cost open-label study.Cassava Sciences Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cassava Sciences Announces Leadership Changes Amid Strategic Shift
Neutral
Apr 21, 2025
Cassava Sciences announced the retirement of its Chief Medical Officer, James W. Kupiec, effective May 9, 2025, and the appointment of Jack Moore as Senior Vice President, Clinical Development. Moore will advance the clinical evaluation of simufilam in new potential indications, including TSC, leveraging his extensive experience in CNS disorders. The company also amended executive employment agreements, appointing R. Christopher Cook as Chief Operating and Legal Officer, reflecting strategic shifts in leadership to bolster its clinical development efforts.
Spark’s Take on SAVA Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SAVA is a Neutral.
Cassava Sciences faces significant financial challenges, including no revenue and operational losses, which weigh heavily on the stock’s potential. The technical analysis shows weak momentum, adding to concerns. However, the recent strategic partnership with Yale University provides a positive outlook for future growth, slightly improving the overall score.
To see Spark’s full report on SAVA stock, click here.
Executive/Board ChangesLegal Proceedings
Cassava Sciences Amends Bonus Plan After Court Settlement
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025
On January 24, 2025, the Delaware Court of Chancery approved a settlement related to Cassava Sciences’ 2020 Cash Incentive Bonus Plan, leading to amendments by the company’s board on March 6, 2025. These amendments include conditions for cash bonuses tied to market capitalization and FDA approval of simufilam, with specific provisions for the Chairman, President, and CEO roles, although no bonuses have been paid to date.
Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cassava Sciences Secures Exclusive License with Yale University
Positive
Feb 27, 2025
On February 26, 2025, Cassava Sciences entered into a License Agreement with Yale University, granting them exclusive worldwide rights to certain intellectual property for the development and commercialization of Simufilam as a treatment for Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)-related epilepsy. This agreement, based on promising research by Yale, involves milestone payments up to $4.5 million and tiered royalties on net sales. The agreement reflects Cassava’s strategic focus on expanding Simufilam’s therapeutic applications, potentially impacting the treatment landscape for rare neurodevelopmental disorders.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.