Skip to main content

Go Premium in Our Biggest Sale Ever

UPGRADE NOW
TipRanks
Go Ultimate75% OFF

Sunrun (RUN) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

5,925 Followers

RUN Q3 2026 EPS Results

Actual EPS
$0.56
Consensus EPS
$0.16
Beat/Miss
Beat by +$0.40
One Year Ago EPS
$0.06

RUN Q3 2026 Revenue Results

Actual Revenue
$1.10B
Expected Revenue
$757.53M
Beat/Miss
Beat by +$341.96M
YoY Revenue Growth
+51.75%

Earnings Announcement Details

Quarter
Q3 2026
Date
11/04/2026
Time
After Close
Conference Call
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
RUN Upcoming Earnings

Sunrun's next earnings date is estimated for February 24, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.

Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio

RUN Q3 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00

Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck

Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Q3 2026
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2026|% Change Since:-3.07%|
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive

The call was predominantly positive. Sunrun highlighted renewed direct-business growth, record storage attachment, improving upfront subscriber value margins, positive cash generation, debt reduction, expanding distributed-power-plant operations, strong financing access, and expected 2027 installation growth. These positives were tempered by a 67% year-over-year decline in affiliate volume, reduced 2026 subscriber-value and cash-generation guidance, below-forecast sales pacing, higher interest rates, and identified 2027 industry cost headwinds.

Company Guidance

For the full year, Sunrun expects affiliate channel volumes to be down by more than 60%, direct business volumes to comprise approximately 85% to 90% of total installation volume mix, aggregate subscriber value of approximately $4.6 billion, and cash generation of approximately $200 million before net investments in safe-harbor equipment of $60 million to $70 million, compared with prior guidance of $200 million to $375 million; it expects robust cash generation in Q4, expects to grow overall installation volumes in 2027, expects to produce meaningfully positive cash generation in 2027, expects to increase prices further in 2027, and expects to double the amount of capacity online by the end of 2028.

  • Direct Business Returned to GrowthSunrun said its direct business grew compared to the prior year in Q3 and most recently in October, with expectations to exit 2026 with continued growth. Direct installation volumes increased 17% from Q2 and 9% year-over-year in Q3.
  • Improved Margins and Upfront Subscriber ValueUpfront net subscriber value increased from $2,000 per subscriber in Q2 to over $3.7 thousand in Q3, representing approximately 7% of contracted subscriber value and an increase of over 3 percentage points from the prior quarter.
  • Record Storage Attachment RateSunrun achieved a record 75% storage attachment rate in Q3, up 1 point from Q2. Average system sizes also increased 2% from Q2.
  • Customer and Installation GrowthSunrun added over 24 thousand customers in Q3. At the end of the quarter, it had installed more than 284 thousand storage-plus-solar systems and had a growing base of over 1 million customers.
  • Distributed Power Plant ScaleSunrun reported over 5 gigawatt-hours of storage capacity installed across the country and described itself as the largest residential independent power producer. It added more than 1.3 gigawatt-hours of storage capacity and dispatched more than 1 thousand megawatts of power over the last 12 months.
  • Record Grid Dispatch and Capacity Expansion PlansSunrun set new records by dispatching 34 megawatts in a single event. It expects to double the amount of capacity online by the end of 2028, grow participation rates substantially, and increase revenue per enrolled asset.
  • Positive Cash Generation and Debt ReductionManagement reported positive Q3 cash generation of $56 million excluding investments in equipment for safe-harbor activities and said it expects robust cash generation in Q4. Parent debt was reduced by over $100 million year to date.
  • Strong Contracted Subscriber Value per UnitAggregate contracted subscriber value was $1.2 billion in Q3. Contracted subscriber value per unit was approximately $52.5 thousand, up 8% year-over-year, driven by larger average system sizes, increased pricing, a higher storage attachment rate, and a higher average ITC level, partially offset by a higher discount rate.
  • Tax Equity and Financing AvailabilityThe vast majority of Sunrun's 2026 tax credit supply was spoken for through closed transactions or advanced discussions, while early engagement with potential buyers of 2027 credits had picked up materially. Closed transactions and executed term sheets were expected to provide tax equity capacity or equivalent to fund approximately 980 megawatts of projects beyond those deployed through Q3.
  • Robust Capital Markets DemandITC pricing remained relatively stable in the high 80s to low $0.90 range. Sunrun had over $661 million of unused commitments available in its non-recourse senior revolving warehouse loan to fund over 269 megawatts of projects, raised approximately $1.5 billion in non-recourse asset-level debt financing year to date, and reported robust demand for securitizations in the private and public markets.
  • Affiliate Business Reset Toward QualitySunrun said it successfully reset its affiliate business around partners that meet rigorous standards for high-quality originations, assets, and customer experience. Management said there is no plan to exit the affiliate business altogether and that partners under evaluation could be added.
  • Strong Sales Momentum in Key MarketsSales increased by high single digits to low double digits every month compared to the prior year from June through October. Illinois, Texas, and New Jersey were described as growing greater than 25% year-over-year, while Illinois installations grew by over 30% year-over-year in Q3.
  • Expansion of Existing-Customer OfferingsSunrun is offering add-on batteries to existing customers and service plans for customers needing a provider to monitor and service their systems. It is also leveraging its growing fleet to increase recurring cash flow streams from grid-service partnerships.
  • Distributed Compute Pilot and PartnershipsSunrun launched a distributed inference-compute pilot during the summer and is exploring opportunities involving new homes, multifamily properties, and single-family homes. Management said its Tesla-NRG partnership was involved in the PG&E-Google deal and a Google-funded proof of concept, and described the partnership as a source of strong engagement.
  • Supportive Policy and Permitting DevelopmentsManagement said the business plan is based on policies currently in place and does not depend on new policies. It viewed the election outcome and a draft permitting bill involving behind-the-meter distributed energy systems and wholesale market access as positive developments, while noting that the impact of the permitting bill was too early to determine.
  • Hardware and Connectivity Positioned for Grid ServicesSunrun said it had built its own connectivity and entered agreements with hardware providers that allow it to deploy and control hardware according to the needs of utility companies and other off-takers. Management said the company was well positioned to respond to varying grid requirements across the country.
  • Expected 2027 Installation GrowthDespite adjustments to the affiliate business earlier in the year, Sunrun expects overall installation volumes to grow in 2027, supported by growth in the direct business. Management said it expects all routes to be growing year-over-year likely in Q2.

RUN Earnings History

RUN earnings history
Report DateFiscal QuarterForecast / EPSLast Year's EPSEPS YoY ChangePress Release
Feb 24, 20272026 (Q4)0.14-0.38――
Nov 04, 20262026 (Q3)0.160.560.06833.33% (+0.50)
Aug 05, 20262026 (Q2)0.230.421.07-60.75% (-0.65)
May 06, 20262026 (Q1)-0.070.620.2210.00% (+0.42)
Feb 26, 20262025 (Q4)0.030.38-12.51103.04% (+12.89)
Nov 06, 20252025 (Q3)0.080.06-0.37116.22% (+0.43)
Aug 06, 20252025 (Q2)-0.091.070.5594.55% (+0.52)
May 07, 20252025 (Q1)-0.340.20-0.4150.00% (+0.60)
Feb 27, 20252024 (Q4)―-12.51-1.6-681.88% (-10.91)
Nov 07, 20242024 (Q3)-0.09-0.37-4.9292.48% (+4.55)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat Missed