Rand Capital AI Stock Analysis
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Rand Capital (RAND) AI Stock Analysis
Rand Capital
(NASDAQ:RAND)
The score is primarily supported by a strong balance sheet with no debt and a reasonable valuation alongside a very high dividend yield. Offsetting this are meaningful consistency risks—declining TTM revenue, negative TTM operating/free cash flow despite positive earnings, and event-driven credit/portfolio pressures (non-accruals, write-down, tighter liquidity)—while technical signals are largely neutral and do not provide a strong tailwind.
Rand Capital (RAND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $29.25M
- Dividend Yield
- 17.65%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 3,125
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 9.3
- Beta (1Y)
- -0.12
- Revenue Growth
- -1.81%
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 4
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Asset Management
Rand Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in subordinated debt with warrants or preferred equity and venture capital investments. Within private equity, the firm specializing in capital growth and lower middle market inv...
How the Company Makes Money
Rand Capital makes money primarily from returns on its investment portfolio rather than from selling traditional products or services. Key earnings drivers generally include: (1) interest income earned on debt investments (such as loans or notes) mad...
Rand Capital Earnings Call Summary
The call presents a balanced picture: significant near-term headwinds (a 38% drop in total investment income, yield compression to 9.43% driven by nonaccruals, $2.0M of unrealized depreciation, and exposure to restructurings like MRES) are offset by meaningful strengths (more than $20M of liquidity and very low leverage, active deployment of $5.1M including a 13%‑priced term loan in AME, a $1.1M realized gain, a portfolio fair value increase to $51.5M, and maintenance of the regular $0.29/share dividend). Management frames Q1 as a transition quarter and emphasizes capital recycling, disciplined underwriting, and potential to originate higher‑yielding investments (13%–14%), but risks from nonaccruals and reduced earning base remain material in the short term.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that in 2026 Rand will execute a disciplined, income‑focused strategy aimed at supporting a consistent, earnings‑driven quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share while rebuilding NAV ($17.16/share; net assets ≈ $51M) and prudently scaling the portfolio using balance‑sheet liquidity (~$20.1M available on a $25M revolver; $0.5M drawn; facility maturing 2027) and modest leverage; Q1 actions and metrics underpinning that guidance included $5.1M deployed (including a $4.0M investment in AME—$3.0M term loan at 13% plus $1.0M equity), ~$0.678M to acquire MRES senior credit, $0.4M follow‑on to FSS (FSS fair value $4.3M), $0.05M to KITECH, a realized gain of ~ $1.1M on Cybertz (≈$1.3M proceeds), investment income of $1.2M (down 38% Y/Y), net investment income $0.545M or $0.18/share, noncash PIK interest $0.244M (20% of investment income), total expenses $0.642M (down 19%), portfolio fair value $51.5M across 20 companies (80% debt / 20% equity), a weighted‑average debt yield of 9.43% (down from 11.3% at 12/31/25) while new originations typically price at 13–14%, and a renewed $1.5M share repurchase authorization—with management emphasizing selective deployment, maintained underwriting standards and active oversight (notably on FSS and MRES) to protect credit quality and NAV.
Rand Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength (zero debt in 2025/TTM and sizable equity) supports financial flexibility, but performance quality is mixed: revenue is down ~23.6% TTM, profitability has swung sharply (steep 2025 loss vs. TTM profitability), and TTM operating/free cash flow is deeply negative (~-$9.2M) despite positive earnings, signaling weak cash conversion and high volatility.
Income Statement
62PositiveBalance Sheet
84Very PositiveCash Flow
48Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.29M | 4.47M | 11.22M | 9.14M | 682.44K | 17.21M |
| Gross Profit | 3.31M | 4.77M | 10.13M | 8.09M | 612.48K | 16.59M |
| EBITDA | 2.83M | -7.86M | 8.81M | 6.85M | -545.83K | 15.77M |
| Net Income | 3.03M | -8.04M | 8.83M | 6.53M | -881.85K | 15.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 57.64M | 53.20M | 72.46M | 81.02M | 63.48M | 65.64M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 222.92K | 4.21M | 834.80K | 3.30M | 1.37M | 833.88K |
| Total Debt | 5.00M | 0 | 600.00K | 16.25M | 2.55M | 0 |
| Total Liabilities | 6.10M | 1.01M | 7.12M | 20.21M | 5.76M | 4.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 51.54M | 52.18M | 65.33M | 60.82M | 57.72M | 60.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.16M | 11.25M | 15.33M | 6.12M | 252.37K | 6.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -9.16M | 11.25M | 15.33M | 6.12M | 252.37K | 6.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 266.25K | 0 | 0 | -14.46M | 3.54M | -10.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -107.96K | -7.88M | -17.79M | 10.27M | 282.75K | -15.59M |
Rand Capital Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RAND, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.68, below the 50-day MA of 10.03, and below the 200-day MA of 10.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RAND.
Rand Capital Risk Analysis
Rand Capital disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rand Capital reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksRand Capital Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
GLAD73Outperform
PNNT64Neutral- RAND64Neutral
TCPC60.5Neutral
OFS53Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLAD | 73Outperform | $446.21M | 9.17 | 10.19% | 10.09% | -38.83% | -36.61% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| PNNT | 64Neutral | $220.05M | 20.77 | 2.27% | 29.27% | 138.32% | -27.91% |
| RAND | 64Neutral | $29.00M | 9.27 | 5.88% | 17.65% | -1.81% | ― |
| TCPC | 61Neutral | $346.52M | -1.76 | -36.53% | 18.31% | -374.71% | -2111.43% |
| OFS | 53Neutral | $48.10M | -1.74 | -25.56% | 18.48% | -82.20% | -978.39% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAND | Rand Capital | 9.74 | -2.49 | -20.35% | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | 19.62 | 2.12 | 12.11% | |
| PNNT | Pennantpark Investment | 3.28 | -1.90 | -36.72% | |
| OFS | OFS Capital | 3.68 | -0.62 | -14.44% | |
| TCPC | BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. | 4.15 | -0.69 | -14.22% |
Rand Capital Corporate Events
Rand Capital Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results
NeutralOn November 4, 2026, Rand Capital reported third-quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2026. Interest income from portfolio companies rose 4% sequentially to $1.2 million, but total investment income fell 17% year over year to $1.3 milli...
Rand Capital Q2 2026 Results and Dividend Update
NegativeRand Capital reported second quarter fiscal 2026 results on August 5, 2026, highlighting total investment income of $1.4 million, down 13% from a year earlier, largely due to several portfolio investments moving to non-accrual status. Net investment...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026