Oshkosh (OSK) Risk Analysis

We are dependent on U.S. and foreign government contracts for a substantial portion of our business. Approximately 20% of our net sales in 2024 were to the U.S. government. That business is subject to the following risks, among others, that could have a material adverse effect on our operating performance: - The Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act and the Competition in Contracting Act require competition for U.S. defense programs in most circumstances. Competition for U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) programs that we currently have has resulted and could in the future result in the U.S. government awarding future contracts to another manufacturer or could result in the U.S. government awarding the contracts to us at lower prices and operating margins than we experience under the current contracts. As an example, in February 2023, the DoD awarded the Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTV) Family of Vehicles follow on contract to another company based on, at least in part, a lower price. - We may not receive the contracts that we expect. While we anticipate our contract for the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) program will be extended and that the extension would include higher pricing to reflect current material costs and more robust economic price adjustment clauses to protect us if we experience rapid inflation in the future, there is no assurance that the contract will be extended or that any extension will include an economic price adjustment clause sufficient to protect us from inflation in the future. In addition, although we believe there is demand from international customers for our tactical wheeled vehicles, there is no assurance that additional orders will materialize. - Competitions for U.S. government contracts are intense, and we cannot provide any assurance that we will be successful in current or future procurement competitions in which we participate, as evidenced by the award of the JLTV follow on contract to another company. In addition, the U.S. government has become more aggressive in seeking to acquire the design rights to the Company's current and potential future programs to facilitate competition for manufacturing our vehicles. - Most of our contracts with the DoD are multi-year firm, fixed-price contracts. These contracts typically contain annual sales price increases. We attempt to limit the risk related to raw material price fluctuations for major defense components by obtaining firm pricing from suppliers at the time a contract is awarded. However, if these suppliers do not honor their contracts, then we could face profit margin pressure. Furthermore, if our actual costs on any of these contracts exceed our projected costs, it could result in profits lower than historically realized or than we anticipate. - We must spend significant sums on product development and testing, bid and proposal activities, and pre-contract engineering, tooling and design activities in competitions to have the opportunity to be awarded these contracts. - Our Defense segment results may fluctuate significantly from time to time as a result of the start and completion of existing and new domestic and international contract awards that we may receive. A majority of our contracts in the Defense segment are large in size and require significant personnel and production resources, and when our government customers allow such contracts to expire or significantly reduce their vehicle requirements under such contracts, we must make adjustments to personnel and production resources. Production on the domestic JLTV contract is expected to conclude early 2025. We may incur costs in connection with the completion and wind down of that program. In addition, while we expect NGDV sales to offset the reduction in JLTV sales, we may not be able to increase NGDV production to fully offset the decline in JLTV sales and operating income. - Our business is susceptible to changes in the annual U.S. defense budget. Such changes may reduce revenues that we expect in our Defense segment, especially in light of federal budget pressures, lower levels of U.S. ground troops deployed in foreign conflicts and the level of defense funding that will be allocated to the DoD's tactical wheeled vehicle strategy generally. - Certain of our U.S. government contracts could be delayed or terminated, and all such contracts expire in the future and may not be replaced, which could reduce revenues that we expect under the contracts and negatively affect margins in our Defense segment. - The funding of DoD programs is subject to an annual congressional budget authorization and appropriations process. In years when the U.S. government has not completed its budget process before the end of its fiscal year, which is currently the case for the U.S. government's fiscal 2025 budget, government operations are typically funded pursuant to a "continuing resolution," which allows federal government agencies to operate at spending levels approved in the previous budget cycle but does not authorize new spending initiatives. When the U.S. government operates under a continuing resolution, delays can occur in the procurement of the products, services and solutions that we provide and may result in new initiatives being delayed or canceled, or funds could be reprogrammed away from our programs to pay for higher priority operational needs. The current continuing resolution funding the U.S. government expires on March 14, 2025. Furthermore, in years when the U.S. government fails to complete its budget process or to provide for a continuing resolution, a federal government shutdown may result. This could in turn result in the delay or cancellation of key programs, which could have a negative effect on our cash flows and adversely affect our future results. In addition, payments to contractors for services performed during a federal government shutdown may be delayed, which would have a negative effect on our cash flows. - As a U.S. government contractor, our DoD contracts and systems are subject to audit and review by the Defense Contract Audit Agency and the Defense Contract Management Agency. These agencies review our performance under our U.S. government contracts, our cost structure and our compliance with laws and regulations applicable to U.S. government contractors. Systems that are subject to review include, but are not limited to, our accounting systems, estimating systems, material management systems, earned value management systems, purchasing systems and government property systems. If improper or illegal activities, errors or system inadequacies come to the attention of the U.S. government, as a result of an audit or otherwise, then we may be subject to civil and criminal penalties, contract adjustments and/or agreements to upgrade existing systems as well as administrative sanctions that may include the termination of our U.S. government contracts, forfeiture of profits, suspension of payments, fines and, under certain circumstances, suspension or debarment from future U.S. government contracts for a period of time. Whether or not illegal activities are alleged and regardless of materiality, the U.S. government also has the ability to decrease or withhold certain payments when it deems systems subject to its review to be inadequate. These laws and regulations affect how we do business with our customers and, in many instances, impose added costs on our business. - Defense tactical wheeled vehicles contract awards that we receive may be subject to protests or lawsuits by competing bidders, which protests or lawsuits, if successful, could result in the U.S. government customer revoking part or all of any defense tactical wheeled vehicle contracts it awards to us and our inability to recover amounts we have expended in anticipation of initiating production under any such contract.

In 2021, the USPS selected us to build its Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV). The indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract allows for the purchase of up to 165,000 units over 10 years. Through December 31, 2024, we have received orders for 51,500 vehicles. As of December 31, 2024, we have recorded an asset for deferred contract costs of $842.6 million that primarily relates to the NGDV program. Contract costs are amortized over the anticipated production volume of the related contract. The USPS contract and our performance under the contract are subject to the following risks, among others, that could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition, and/or cash flows: - The USPS ordering fewer units than we expect which could result in an impairment of our deferred contract asset. - It may take longer or cost more than we anticipate to scale our production to full rate production, which may result from additional costs, product design changes, supplier product quality issues or delays in receiving products from suppliers, costs and other challenges associated with recruiting and training a new workforce or other challenges associated with scaling production. - Our supply base may not be able to supply parts in a timely manner. - Warranty costs may be higher than we anticipate. - If additional orders are received, the mix of internal combustion engine and battery electric vehicles could be different from our expectations, which could reduce revenues that we expect under the contract and negatively affect anticipated margins. - The USPS may exercise its right to terminate the contract for convenience.

Expanding international operations and sales is a part of our growth strategy. International operations and sales are subject to various risks, including political, religious and economic instability, the imposition of foreign tariffs upon our products (which include tariffs in response to tariffs that the U.S. imposes) and other trade barriers, the impact of foreign government regulations and the effects of income and withholding taxes, sporadic order patterns, governmental expropriation, uncertainties or delays in collection of accounts receivable and differences in business practices. Changes in international trade policies could result in changes to our international operations and/or international growth strategy. We may incur increased costs, including increased supply chain costs, and experience delays or disruptions in production schedules, product deliveries or payments in connection with international manufacturing and sales that could cause loss of revenues and earnings. Among other things, there are additional logistical requirements associated with international sales, which increase the amount of time between the completion of production and our ability to recognize related revenue. In addition, expansion into foreign markets requires the establishment of distribution networks and may require modification of products to meet local requirements or preferences. Establishment of distribution networks or modification to the design of our products to meet local requirements and preferences may take longer or be more costly than we anticipate and could have a material adverse effect on our ability to achieve international sales growth. In addition, our entry into certain markets that we wish to enter may require us to establish a joint venture or face competition from foreign state-backed competitors. Identifying an appropriate joint venture partner and creating a joint venture could be more time consuming, more costly and more difficult than we anticipate. Local government policy and influence can also impact international competition, such as in China where a state-controlled economy favors local market participants.

In 2024, we directly imported from Mexico, China and Canada approximately $600 million, $175 million and $100 million, respectively. Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes can disrupt supply chains and increase the cost of our products, which could cause our products to be more expensive for customers. Countries could adopt restrictive trade measures such as tariffs, taxation, foreign exchange controls, capital controls and controls on imports or exports of goods, technology or data, any of which could adversely affect our operations and supply chain or limit our ability to offer our products and services as intended. Changes in laws or regulations governing the terms of foreign trade, and in particular increased trade restrictions, tariffs or taxes on imports from countries where we manufacture products or from where we import products or raw materials (either directly or through our suppliers) could have a material adverse effect on our competitive position, results of operations, financial condition, and/or cash flows. For example, in June 2024, the European Commission imposed a tariff that applies to imports of certain access equipment into European Union countries from China, which resulted in additional costs and could result in lower sales and/or profitability of the Access segment in the European Union. Countries may implement additional restrictive trade actions, including tariffs, export controls, sanctions, legislation favoring domestic investment and other actions impacting the import and export of goods in jurisdictions in which we or our suppliers operate. These kinds of restrictions could be adopted with little to no advance notice and could escalate in response to tariffs or restrictions imposed by the U.S. or other countries, and we may not be able to effectively mitigate any adverse impacts from such measures. Political uncertainty surrounding trade or other international disputes also could have a negative impact on customer confidence, inflation, interest rates and the level of investments by our customers and on the economy in general. Any of these events could increase the cost of our products, impact demand for our products, create disruptions to supply chains or impair our ability to effectively operate and compete in countries where we do business.

Although we sell the majority of our products directly to the end user, we market, sell and service products through a network of independent dealers in the Vocational segment and in a limited number of markets in the Access segment. As a result, our business with respect to these products is influenced by our ability to establish and manage new and existing relationships with dealers. While we have relatively low turnover of dealers, from time to time, we or a dealer may choose to terminate the relationship as a result of difficulties that our independent dealers experience in operating their businesses due to economic conditions or other factors or as a result of an alleged failure by us or an independent dealer to comply with the terms of our dealer agreement. We do not believe our business is dependent on any single dealer, the loss of which would have a sustained material adverse effect upon our business. However, disruption of dealer coverage within a specific state or other geographic market could cause difficulties in marketing, selling or servicing our products and have an adverse effect on our net sales, financial condition, results of operations and/or cash flows. In 2024, we transitioned our non-fleet refuse and recycling collection vehicle business from factory direct sales to a dealer network. There is no assurance that the dealers will be successful in selling refuse and recycling collection vehicles. If the transition of our refuse and recycling collection vehicle business is not as successful as we anticipate, it could have an adverse effect on our net sales, financial condition, results of operations and/or cash flows. In addition, our ability to terminate our relationship with a dealer is limited due to state dealer laws, which generally provide that a manufacturer may not terminate or refuse to renew a dealer agreement unless it has first provided the dealer with required notices. Under many state laws, dealers may protest termination notices or petition for relief from termination actions. Responding to these protests and petitions may cause us to incur costs and, in some instances, could lead to litigation resulting in lost opportunities with other dealers or lost sales opportunities, which may have an adverse effect on our net sales, financial condition, results of operations and/or cash flows.