Octave Specialty Group (OSG) Risk Analysis

In the absence of a sale of AAC, the Company would continue to actively run-off the Discontinued Operations. In that event, there could be no assurance that AFG would be able to realize residual value through receiving dividends from the continued run-off of AAC. In the absence of a sale, AFG's ability to realize residual value from AAC would depend upon, amongst other considerations, AAC's ability to satisfy all of its obligations that are senior to AFG's equity interests, including obligations to policyholders, surplus note holders and preferred stock holders. AAC's ability to satisfy all of its obligations that are senior to AFG's equity depends on a number of considerations, including its ability to recover losses previously paid; avoid material losses from litigation; mitigate losses from its insured portfolio, which is subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including as a result of varying potential perceptions of the value of AAC's guarantees and securities; realize material value from its investment in Ambac UK; and repay and/or restructure its indebtedness in a timely manner such that accruing interest costs are manageable. Increased loss development in the Discontinued Operations insured portfolios, or significant losses from litigation or other events or circumstances could prompt OCI to determine that it is in the best interests of policyholders to initiate rehabilitation proceedings with respect to AAC or to issue supervisory orders that impose restrictions on AAC. If OCI were to decide to initiate rehabilitation proceedings with respect to AAC, adverse consequences could result, including, without limitation, the assertion of damages by counterparties, the acceleration of losses based on early termination triggers, the loss of control rights in insured transactions, and the loss of operational control to OCI. The rehabilitator would act solely for the benefit of policyholders, which could result in material adverse consequences for our security holders and significantly reduce or eliminate any residual value of AAC for AFG. Due to the foregoing considerations, the risk factors described herein, and applicable legal and contractual restrictions described elsewhere herein and in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, substantial uncertainty remains as to AAC's ability to pay dividends to AFG and the timing of any such dividends.

We expect to recover material amounts of claims payments through cash flows in the securitization structures of transactions that AAC insures. Realization of such expected recoveries is subject to various risks and uncertainties, including the rights and defenses of other parties with interests that conflict with AAC's interests, the performance of the collateral and assets backing the obligations that AAC insures, the performance of servicers involved in securitizations in which AAC participates as insurer, as well as numerous regulatory, legal and compliance considerations and risks. Adverse developments with respect to any of the factors described above may cause our recoveries to fall below expectations, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, including our capital and liquidity, and may result in adverse consequences such as impairing the ability of AAC to honor its financial obligations, particularly its surplus notes and preferred stock obligations; the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC; eliminating or reducing the possibility of AAC delivering value to AFG, through dividends or otherwise; and a significant drop in the value of securities issued or insured by AFG or AAC.

A significant percentage of LFG premium revenue is attributable to installment premiums. The amount of installment premiums collected is declining along with the insured portfolio. The amount of installment premiums actually realized could be further reduced due to factors such as early termination of insurance contracts, new reinsurance transactions, accelerated prepayments of underlying obligations or insufficiency of cash flows (by the premium paying entity). The reduction in installment premiums will result in lower LFG revenues and cash flow in the future.

AAC and Ambac UK allocate a portion of their investment portfolios in below investment grade securities; equities and alternative assets, such as hedge funds. Investments in below investment grade securities, equities and alternative assets could expose AAC and/or Ambac UK to greater earnings volatility, increased losses and decreased liquidity in the investment portfolio.

Increases in prevailing interest rate levels can adversely affect the value of our investment portfolio and, therefore, our financial strength. In the event that investments must be sold in order to pay claims, to pay debt obligations, to meet collateral posting requirements or to meet other liquidity needs, such investments would likely be sold at discounted prices. Additionally, increasing interest rates would have an adverse impact on the legacy financial guarantee insured portfolio. For example, increasing interest rates could result in higher claim payments in respect of defaulted obligations that bear floating rates of interest. Higher interest rates can also lead to increased credit stress on consumer asset-backed transactions (as the securitized assets supporting a portion of these exposures are floating rate consumer obligations), slower prepayment speeds and resulting "extension risk" relative to such consumer asset-backed transactions in the LFG insured and investment portfolios, and decreased refinancing activity. Decreasing interest rates could result in early terminations of financial guarantee insurance policies in respect of which AAC and Ambac UK are paid on an installment basis and do not receive a termination premium, thus reducing premium earned for these transactions. Decreases in prevailing interest rates may also limit growth of, or reduce, investment income and may increase collateral requirements related to AAC's residual legacy customer interest rate swap portfolio. Our investment portfolios may also be adversely affected by credit rating downgrades, ABS and RMBS prepayment speeds, foreign exchange movements, spread volatility, and credit losses.

Pursuant to the terms of the Settlement Agreement, dated as of June 7, 2010, as amended (the "Settlement Agreement"), by and among AAC, Ambac Credit Products LLC ("ACP"), AFG and certain counterparties to credit default swaps with ACP that were guaranteed by AAC, and the Stipulation and Order among the OCI, AFG and AAC that became effective on February 22, 2024 (the "Stipulation and Order"), AAC must seek prior approval by OCI of certain corporate actions. The Settlement Agreement and Stipulation and Order also includes covenants that restrict the operations of AAC which (i) in the case of the Settlement Agreement, remain in force until the surplus notes that were issued pursuant to the Settlement Agreement have been redeemed, repurchased or repaid in full, and (ii) in the case of the Stipulation and Order, remain in place until the OCI decides to relax such restrictions. Certain of these restrictions may be waived with the approval of holders of surplus notes and/or OCI. If AAC is unable to obtain the required consents under the Settlement Agreement and/or the Stipulation and Order, it may not be able to execute its planned business strategies. In addition, the capital framework developed and implemented by OCI to assist OCI with making decisions related to capital management at AAC ("OCI's Runoff Capital Framework") and decisions based thereon are expected to affect AAC's ability to reduce financial leverage, pay dividends to AFG, and/or make payments on surplus notes or Auction Market Preferred Shares ("AMPS"). OCI has certain enforcement rights with respect to the Settlement Agreement and Stipulation and Order, and retains full discretion over the design of, and assumptions utilized in, OCI's Runoff Capital Framework and the implications thereof. Disputes may arise over the interpretation of such agreements or instruments, the exercise or purported exercise of rights thereunder, the determinations made thereunder, or the performance of or failure or purported failure to adhere to the terms thereof. Any such dispute could have material adverse effects on AAC, and the Company more broadly, whether through litigation, administrative proceedings, supervisory orders, failure to execute transactions sought by management, interference with corporate strategies, objectives or prerogatives, inefficient decision-making or execution, forced realignment of resources, increased costs, distractions to management, strained working relationships or otherwise. Such effects would also increase the risk that OCI would seek to initiate rehabilitation proceedings or issue supervisory orders against AAC.

Cirrata financed its acquisition of Beat in part through the issuance of $150,000 of new indebtedness, which is guaranteed by AFG (the "Credit Facility"). The debt incurred under the Credit Facility matures on July 31, 2025. The obligations of AFG and its subsidiaries under the Credit Facility are secured on a first-priority basis by (i) a pledge by AFG of all of the capital stock of Everspan Holdings, LLC and (ii) a pledge of all of the capital stock of Beat held by Cirrata and its subsidiaries. The Company intends to pay off the Credit Facility with the proceeds of the AAC Sale. In the event that the AAC Sale did not occur, due to factors described elsewhere in these Risk Factors or for any other reason, the Company would need to seek to refinance the Credit Facility through the public or private credit markets. Alternatively the Company would seek to raise additional capital or restructure the debt. There is no guaranty that the Company could refinance or restructure the Credit Facility or raise additional capital at commercially reasonable terms or at all. In addition, if the Company were able to refinance or restructure the Credit Facility or raise additional capital it may incur a higher rate of interest or suffer more restrictive covenants, which could cause a material adverse impact on the Company's results of operations and financial condition. Furthermore, raising additional capital through the issuance of equity would depend on market and economic conditions, dilute the ownership of existing stockholders and potentially diminish the ability of the Company to access the capital markets in the future. Moreover, raising additional capital through the sale of assets would depend on market and economic conditions; the availability of buyers; the requirements and conditions of local law, including regulatory restrictions; and other factors that may result in the Company or a party enforcing rights against the Company to be unable to receive proceeds sufficient to discharge the Company's obligations. Because of these and other factors beyond our control, the Company may be unable to pay or discharge the principal or interest on the indebtedness incurred under the Credit Facility on economic terms or at all, which would materially impair the value of the Company. The Credit Facility includes covenants that restrict our ability to manage capital resources by limiting, among other actions, the issuance of additional debt or capital stock; the creation of liens; the disposition of assets; engaging in transactions with affiliates; making restricted payments, including dividends and the purchase or redemption of capital stock; and making acquisitions and other investments. The Credit Facility also requires the prepayment of the borrowings thereunder with proceeds of certain debt or equity issuances and certain asset sales, including the AAC Sale. These requirements will impact our financial and operational flexibility while the Credit Facility remains in place. The Company's substantial indebtedness could have other significant consequences for our financial condition and operational flexibility. For example, it could: - increase our vulnerability to general adverse economic, competitive and industry conditions;- limit our ability to obtain additional financing in the future for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions, general corporate purposes or other purposes on satisfactory terms or at all;- require the Company to dedicate a substantial portion of its cash flow from operations to the payment of interest on its indebtedness, thereby reducing the funds available for operations and to fund the execution of key strategies;- limit or restrict the Company from making strategic acquisitions or cause us to make non-strategic divestitures;- limit the Company's ability, or increase the costs, to refinance its indebtedness or repay indebtedness due to ongoing interest payment obligations; and - limit our ability to attract and retain key employees. While restrictive covenants in the Credit Facility may limit the amount of additional indebtedness the Company may incur, we may obtain waivers of those restrictions and incur additional indebtedness in the future. In addition, if the Company incurred indebtedness, its ability to make scheduled payments on, or refinance, any such indebtedness may depend on the ability of our subsidiaries to make distributions or pay dividends, which in turn will depend on their future operating performance and contractual, legal and regulatory restrictions on the payment of distributions or dividends to which they may be subject. There can be no assurance that any such dividends or distributions would be made. This could further exacerbate the risks associated with the Company's substantial leverage.

The completion of the AAC Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various conditions, which may not be satisfied in a timely manner or at all. If the AAC Sale is not completed, we will not recoup the costs incurred in connection with negotiating the AAC Sale and the other transactions. Our directors, executive officers and other employees will have expended extensive time and effort and will have experienced significant distractions from their work during the pendency of the AAC Sale, and we will have incurred significant third-party transaction costs, in each case, without any commensurate benefit, which may have a material and adverse effect on our stock price and results of operations. Furthermore, if the AAC Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement are not completed, the announcement of the termination of the Purchase Agreement may adversely affect our relationships with our customers, business partners and employees, which could have a material adverse impact on our ability to effectively operate our business, and we may be required to pay the Termination Fee of $22,000 under certain circumstances, each of which could have further adverse effects on our business, results of operations and the trading price of AFG's common stock. Additionally, we intend to use the proceeds of the AAC Sale to repay all or a portion of the debt used to fund the acquisition of 60% of the share capital of Beat Capital Partners Limited. If we do not consummate the AAC Sale then we will need to repay or refinance such debt with other sources of funds, which may not be available on favorable terms or at all. An inability to repay the debt used to fund the acquisition of Beat from proceeds of the AAC Sale or other sources, or an inability to refinance such debt on favorable terms or at all, may materially negatively affect our business and results of operations.