Orrstown Financial Services (ORRF) Risk Analysis

The ACL is recorded as a reduction to loans and leases on the consolidated balance sheet, and the reserve for unfunded lending commitments is included in other liabilities on the consolidated balance sheet. While we believe that our ACL as of December 31, 2023 was sufficient to cover losses in the loan and lease portfolio on that date, we may need to increase our provision for credit losses in future periods due to changes in the risk characteristics of the loan and lease portfolio, thereby negatively impacting our results of operations. On January 1, 2023, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13, the current expected credit losses accounting standard commonly referred to as "CECL," which replaced the incurred loss model with the lifetime expected loss model. The CECL methodology requires an organization to measure all expected credit losses over the contractual term for financial assets measured at amortized cost, including loans, based on historical experience, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. The adoption of the new CECL standard resulted in a cumulative-effect adjustment that increased the ACL for loans by $2.4 million and increased the off-balance sheet credit exposures reserve by $100 thousand. Retained earnings, net of deferred taxes, decreased by $2.0 million, and deferred tax assets increased by $559 thousand. As a result of the adoption of CECL standard, companies must recognize credit losses on these assets equal to management's estimate of credit losses over the assets' remaining expected lives. It is possible that our ongoing reported earnings and lending activity will be impacted negatively as a result of the application of CECL. The ACL is determined based on various factors impacting the quality of the loan and lease portfolio as indicated by our borrowers' financial condition, payment performance, the value of the underlying collateral, and the support from a guarantor, in addition to the impact from economic conditions, government macroeconomic policies, interest rates and the regulatory environment. The experience and expertise of our loan officers, credit analysts and special assets group are essential to performing credit quality reviews, in addition to analyzing trends in delinquencies, levels of non-accruing and criticized loans and leases and modifications to loan terms. The ACL may also be influenced by other factors, including concentrations by the type of loan, collateral, borrower or location of the collateral or borrower. Such concentrations could increase the possibility that similarly situated borrowers and their collateral may collectively be affected by certain economic conditions. Determining the ACL inherently involves a high degree of subjectivity and requires us to make significant estimates of current credit risks and trends, all of which may undergo material changes. We cannot be sure that we will be able to identify deteriorating credits before they become nonperforming assets or that we will be able to limit losses on those loans and leases that are identified. We have in the past been, and in the future may be, required to increase our ACL for any of several reasons. State and federal regulators, in reviewing our loan and lease portfolio as part of a regulatory examination, may request that we increase the ACL. Changes in economic conditions or individual business or personal circumstances affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans and leases, identification of additional problem loans and leases and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require an increase in the ACL. If our assessment of and expectations concerning the above-mentioned factors differ from actual developments, we may be required to increase our ACL, which could have an adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and our regulatory capital.

Federal banking regulators require us to maintain adequate levels of capital to support our operations. These capital levels are determined and dictated by law, regulation and banking regulatory agencies. In addition, capital levels are also determined by our management and board of directors based on capital levels that they believe are necessary to support our business operations. Changes in our financial condition or results of operations, applicable accounting standards, laws and regulations and other factors could make it necessary or advisable for us to raise additional capital. Under such circumstances, our ability to raise additional capital will depend on conditions in the capital markets at that time, which are outside of our control, and on our financial performance. Accordingly, we cannot provide assurance of our ability to raise additional capital on terms and time frames acceptable to us or to raise additional capital at all. Additionally, the inability to raise capital in sufficient amounts may adversely affect our operations, financial condition and results of operations. Our ability to borrow could also be impaired by factors that are nonspecific to us, such as severe disruption of the financial markets or negative news and expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry as a whole. If we raise capital through the issuance of additional shares of our common stock or other securities, we would likely dilute the ownership interests of current investors by diluting earnings per share of our common stock and potentially diluting book value per share, depending on the issuance price. The price at which we issue additional shares of stock could be less than the current market price of our common stock. Furthermore, a capital raise through the issuance of additional shares may have an adverse impact on our stock price. In addition, a capital raise involving the issuance of debt securities could negatively impact our earnings and liquidity.

Our operations are subject to risks and uncertainties surrounding our exposure to changes in the interest rate environment. Earnings and liquidity depend to a great extent on our interest rates. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors beyond our control, including competition, general economic conditions, geopolitical tensions and monetary and fiscal policies of various governmental and regulatory authorities, including the FRB. Conditions such as inflation, deflation, recession, unemployment and other factors beyond our control may also affect interest rates. The nature and timing of any changes in interest rates or general economic conditions and their effect on us cannot be controlled and are difficult to predict. If the rate of interest we pay on our interest-bearing liabilities increases more than the rate of interest we receive on our interest-earning assets, our net interest income, and therefore our earnings, could contract and be materially adversely affected. Our earnings could also be materially adversely affected if the rates on interest-earning assets fall more quickly than those on our interest-bearing liabilities. Changes in interest rates could also create competitive pressures, which could impact our liquidity position. Changes in interest rates also can affect our ability to originate loans, our ability to obtain and retain deposits, and the value of interest-earning assets, and the ability to realize gains from the sale of such assets, which could all negatively impact shareholder's equity and regulatory capital. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee ("FOMC") has raised the Fed Funds rate by 525 basis points. Additional increases in interest rates could also have a negative impact on our results of operations by reducing the ability of borrowers to repay their current loan obligations, which could not only result in increased loan defaults, foreclosures and charge-offs, but could also necessitate further increases to our ACL and reduce net income. In addition, based on our interest rate sensitivity analyses, an increase in the general level of interest rates may negatively affect the market value of the investment portfolio depending on the duration of certain securities included in the investment portfolio. In December of 2023, the FOMC signaled its intention to reduce interest rates in 2024, contingent upon inflation settling at its 2.0% target. A decrease in interest rates may trigger loan prepayments, which may serve to reduce net interest income if we are unable to lend these funds to other borrowers or invest the funds at the same or higher interest rates. Our subordinated notes, issued in December 2018, had a 6.0% fixed interest rate through December 30, 2023, after which the interest rate converted to a variable rate, 90-day average fallback SOFR rate, plus 3.16% through maturity in December 2028. At December 31, 2023, the interest rate on our subordinated debt was 8.78%. An increase in the interest rate on our subordinated debt could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.