Winton Land Limited (WIN) AI Stock Analysis

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Winton Land Limited

(NZX:WIN)

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Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:NZD 1.50▲(14.50% Upside)

Action:initiatedcoverage

Date:10/05/26

The score is driven primarily by Winton Land’s solid current profitability, conservative leverage, and strong recent cash flow recovery, tempered by significant historical volatility in earnings and cash generation. Technicals add a moderate drag, with the price in a longer-term downtrend and only neutral momentum signals, while a mid-range P/E and lack of dividend support a valuation that is reasonable but not clearly undervalued.

Positive Factors

Revenue and Margin RecoveryThe sharp 2026 recovery in revenue and profitability indicates renewed project delivery and improved operating economics. If margins remain above the weak 2025 level, stronger earnings can support reinvestment, debt management, and execution across the development pipeline.

Negative Factors

Cyclical Earnings BaseThe gap between current profitability and the 2023 peak demonstrates that earnings are highly dependent on development cycles and project timing. Such variability makes future profits less predictable and can complicate sustained margin planning, staffing, and capital allocation.

Winton Land Limited (WIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: NZD 256.57M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 32.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
Beta (1Y): 1.03
Revenue Growth: 21.59%
EPS Growth: 119.54%
Country: NZ
Employees: 226
Sector: Real Estate
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Real Estate - Development

Winton Land Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Winton Land Limited engages in the real estate business in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates through Residential Development, Retirement Villages, and Commercial Portfolio segments. The Residential Development segment designs, develops,...

Winton Land Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid current profitability, a conservative balance sheet, and strong recent cash flow recovery are offset by pronounced volatility in revenue, margins, and cash generation, plus subdued recent returns on equity.

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

78Positive

Cash Flow

68Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2026	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	188.84M	188.84M	155.45M	173.60M	215.07M	159.52M
Gross Profit	69.87M	69.87M	57.67M	57.10M	111.05M	71.82M
EBITDA	46.13M	46.13M	16.23M	33.43M	82.76M	48.81M
Net Income	22.66M	22.66M	10.32M	15.75M	64.64M	31.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	702.64M	702.64M	703.89M	654.06M	590.61M	496.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.79M	38.79M	20.28M	41.69M	76.31M	204.82M
Total Debt	85.87M	85.87M	132.75M	84.42M	11.02M	323.00K
Total Liabilities	147.23M	147.23M	172.69M	134.51M	80.20M	42.78M
Stockholders Equity	555.40M	555.40M	531.21M	519.55M	510.41M	454.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	96.54M	96.54M	22.85M	-27.92M	-17.23M	-16.08M
Operating Cash Flow	105.95M	105.95M	42.35M	14.21M	11.85M	-8.93M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.68M	-21.68M	-91.42M	-99.70M	-128.91M	-65.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-65.76M	-65.76M	27.66M	50.87M	-11.45M	244.63M

Winton Land Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price1.31

Price Trends

50DMA1.16Positive

100DMA1.24Positive

200DMA1.55Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.03Negative

RSI74.07Negative

STOCH99.10Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:WIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.18, above the 50-day MA of 1.16, and below the 200-day MA of 1.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.07 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NZ:WIN.

Winton Land Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

NZ:WIN against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NZ:WIN	68Neutral	NZD 388.56M	17.15	4.17%	―	21.59%	119.54%
Sector *	65Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
NZ:ARG	65Neutral	NZD 908.93M	7.03	9.30%	6.74%	2.62%	-0.20%
NZ:PCT	55Neutral	NZD 1.87B	-234.88	-0.37%	6.19%	4.51%	-162.32%
NZ:VHP	55Neutral	NZD 1.47B	-46.54	-1.30%	6.93%	8.36%	42.61%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NZ:WIN and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
NZ:WIN	Winton Land Limited	1.31	-0.86	-39.63%
NZ:PCT	Prect Properties New Zealand	1.01	-0.15	-13.16%
NZ:ARG	Argosy Property	1.04	-0.17	-13.98%
NZ:VHP	Vital Healthcare Property Trust	1.81	-0.26	-12.66%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 05, 2026

Winton Land Limited AI Stock Analysis

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