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Winton Land Limited (WIN) AI Stock Analysis

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NZ:WIN

Winton Land Limited

(NZX:WIN)

Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:NZD 1.50â–²(14.50% Upside)
Action:initiatedcoverage
Date:10/05/26

The score is driven primarily by improved 2026 financial performance (rebound in revenue/margins and strong cash generation) and a generally healthy balance sheet. Offsetting this, the technical picture remains weak over the medium-to-long term (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and valuation appears only moderate with no dividend yield data to provide additional support.

Positive Factors
Revenue and Margin RecoveryThe sharp 2026 recovery in revenue and profitability indicates renewed project delivery and improved operating economics. If margins remain above the weak 2025 level, stronger earnings can support reinvestment, debt management, and execution across the development pipeline.
Negative Factors
Cyclical Earnings BaseThe gap between current profitability and the 2023 peak demonstrates that earnings are highly dependent on development cycles and project timing. Such variability makes future profits less predictable and can complicate sustained margin planning, staffing, and capital allocation.

Winton Land Limited (WIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%NZ:WIN-41.78%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
NZD 256.57M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
32.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
17.1
Beta (1Y)
1.03
Revenue Growth
21.59%
EPS Growth
119.54%
Country
NZ
Employees
226
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Real Estate - Development

Winton Land Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Winton Land Limited engages in the real estate business in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates through Residential Development, Retirement Villages, and Commercial Portfolio segments. The Residential Development segment designs, develops,...

Winton Land Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect a cyclical developer: 2026 rebounded strongly with improved margins and very strong operating/free cash flow, supported by manageable leverage. However, earnings and cash flow have been volatile versus the 2023 peak, with prior periods showing negative free cash flow and modest ROE outside peak years.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

78Positive

Cash Flow

67Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue188.84M188.84M155.45M173.60M215.07M159.52M
Gross Profit69.87M69.87M57.67M57.10M111.05M71.82M
EBITDA46.13M46.13M16.23M33.43M82.76M48.81M
Net Income22.66M22.66M10.32M15.75M64.64M31.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets702.64M702.64M703.89M654.06M590.61M496.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments38.79M38.79M20.28M41.69M76.31M204.82M
Total Debt85.87M85.87M132.75M84.42M11.02M323.00K
Total Liabilities147.23M147.23M172.69M134.51M80.20M42.78M
Stockholders Equity555.40M555.40M531.21M519.55M510.41M454.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow96.54M96.54M22.85M-27.92M-17.23M-16.08M
Operating Cash Flow105.95M105.95M42.35M14.21M11.85M-8.93M
Investing Cash Flow-21.68M-21.68M-91.42M-99.70M-128.91M-65.90M
Financing Cash Flow-65.76M-65.76M27.66M50.87M-11.45M244.63M

Winton Land Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price1.31

Price Trends

50DMA1.16Positive
100DMA1.24Positive
200DMA1.55Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.03Negative
RSI74.07Negative
STOCH99.10Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:WIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.18, above the 50-day MA of 1.16, and below the 200-day MA of 1.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.07 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NZ:WIN.

Winton Land Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

NZ:WIN against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
NZ:WINNZ:WIN65NeutralNZD 388.56M17.154.17%―21.59%119.54%
NZ:ARGNZ:ARG65NeutralNZD 908.93M7.039.30%6.74%2.62%-0.20%
NZ:PCTNZ:PCT55NeutralNZD 1.87B-234.88-0.37%6.19%4.51%-162.32%
NZ:VHPNZ:VHP55NeutralNZD 1.47B-46.54-1.30%6.93%8.36%42.61%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%NZ:WINNZ:PCTNZ:ARGNZ:VHPDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
NZ:WIN and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
NZ:WINWinton Land Limited1.31-0.86-39.63%
NZ:PCTPrect Properties New Zealand 1.01-0.15-13.16%
NZ:ARGArgosy Property 1.04-0.17-13.98%
NZ:VHPVital Healthcare Property Trust1.81-0.26-12.66%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 05, 2026