Nova (NVMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 351.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.99
• Revenue Growth: 39.37%
• EPS Growth: 40.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,177
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 2.16
• Shares Outstanding: 30,522,072
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 360,544
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 351,537
• PEG Ratio: 0.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 37.89
• 1Y Price Target: $358.33
• Price Target Upside: 16.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $871.94M

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $395.00 ▲(28.42% Upside)

Nova's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, highlighting robust growth and strategic positioning. While technical analysis supports upward momentum, the high valuation presents a potential risk. The company's resilience and strategic initiatives in the semiconductor industry are key strengths.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, enhancing Nova's market position in the semiconductor industry.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation supports reinvestment and shareholder returns, providing financial flexibility for strategic growth and innovation.

Product Innovation

Adoption of innovative solutions like ELIPSON® enhances Nova's competitive edge and positions it as a leader in semiconductor metrology.

Negative Factors

Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses may pressure margins and profitability, potentially impacting financial performance if not managed effectively.

Gross Margin Fluctuations

Fluctuating gross margins can affect profitability, highlighting the need for effective cost management and pricing strategies.

China Market Dynamics

Decreasing revenue share from China suggests challenges in a key market, potentially impacting growth if not addressed.

Nova Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nova (NVMI) is a leading provider of advanced materials and photonics solutions primarily for the semiconductor industry. The company specializes in developing and manufacturing innovative metrology and inspection systems that are essential for the production of semiconductor devices. Nova operates in various sectors, including wafer fabrication, manufacturing equipment, and materials analysis, serving a global customer base that includes major semiconductor manufacturers.

How the Company Makes Money

Nova generates revenue primarily through the sale of its metrology and inspection equipment, which are critical for ensuring the quality and precision of semiconductor manufacturing processes. The company also earns income from providing software solutions and services that enhance the performance and efficiency of its equipment. Key revenue streams include direct sales to semiconductor manufacturers, ongoing maintenance and support contracts, and software licenses. Additionally, Nova benefits from strategic partnerships with leading technology firms and research institutions, which enhance its product offerings and market reach, ultimately contributing to its earnings.

Nova Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nova exhibits strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth, robust profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company's solid balance sheet, characterized by low debt and high equity, underscores its financial health and resilience in the competitive semiconductor industry.

Income Statement

Nova has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a 29.8% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin of 57.6% and net profit margin of 27.3% reflect strong profitability. Consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins of 27.9% and 34.7% respectively indicate operational efficiency. These metrics highlight Nova's robust growth and profitability in the highly competitive semiconductor industry.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25, showcasing a conservative approach to leveraging. A return on equity of 19.8% indicates effective use of equity capital to generate profits. The equity ratio of 66.7% suggests substantial financial stability. Overall, Nova's balance sheet reflects strong financial health with low debt and high shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

Nova's free cash flow grew by 105.1% in 2024, evidencing strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.28 demonstrates effective cash conversion from earnings. Furthermore, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.19 indicates robust free cash flow relative to profits, which supports reinvestment and shareholder returns. These metrics show Nova's strong cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	852.72M	672.40M	517.92M	570.73M	416.11M	269.40M
Gross Profit	486.90M	387.09M	293.18M	322.40M	237.36M	152.92M
EBITDA	268.56M	204.92M	172.41M	164.59M	122.42M	65.74M
Net Income	245.02M	183.76M	136.31M	140.21M	93.10M	47.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.31B	1.39B	1.13B	984.11M	805.15M	655.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.09B	586.57M	443.68M	373.50M	410.16M	423.87M
Total Debt	883.70M	236.10M	244.14M	246.06M	220.94M	214.42M
Total Liabilities	1.14B	462.63M	383.06M	397.14M	331.40M	284.25M
Stockholders Equity	1.17B	927.79M	750.75M	586.96M	473.75M	371.54M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	229.96M	218.05M	106.34M	98.22M	127.45M	53.81M
Operating Cash Flow	254.01M	235.27M	123.53M	119.54M	132.26M	60.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-502.20M	-136.40M	-125.33M	-100.26M	-238.50M	-42.46M
Financing Cash Flow	612.02M	-48.35M	10.00K	-29.81M	11.00K	181.41M

Nova Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 307.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVMI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 307.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 334.11, below the 50-day MA of 312.28, and above the 200-day MA of 250.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NVMI.

Nova Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVMI	81 Outperform	$9.58B	40.37	23.58%	―	39.37%	40.87%
ONTO	79 Outperform	$6.82B	39.26	8.96%	―	6.38%	-4.15%
CAMT	77 Outperform	$5.69B	43.98	24.28%	―	27.88%	37.85%
AMKR	73 Outperform	$8.69B	28.33	7.27%	2.12%	0.13%	-16.17%
TSEM	73 Outperform	$9.43B	48.33	7.41%	―	7.18%	-60.59%
OLED	64 Neutral	$6.98B	28.64	13.30%	1.40%	-0.58%	-6.67%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Nova Corporate Events

Nova Achieves Record Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nova reported record financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with revenues reaching $224.6 million, marking a 25% year-over-year increase. The company achieved record sales in memory and advanced logic devices, driven by strong demand for advanced metrology solutions. GAAP net income rose to $61.4 million, and non-GAAP net income reached $70 million. The company’s performance reflects its strong market position and the growing demand in the semiconductor industry, supported by positive forecasts and increased AI-driven demand. Nova’s management anticipates continued growth into 2026.

Nova to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results on November 6

On October 15, 2025, Nova announced it will release its third-quarter financial results for 2025 on November 6, before the Nasdaq market opens. The announcement includes a conference call hosted by Nova’s executives to discuss the results, indicating the company’s proactive engagement with stakeholders and its commitment to transparency. This event may impact Nova’s market positioning and investor relations by providing insights into its financial health and operational performance.

Nova’s ELIPSON® Selected by Leading Foundry for GAA Processes

On October 6, 2025, Nova announced that its ELIPSON® materials metrology solution has been selected as the Tool of Record by a leading global foundry for advanced Gate-All-Around (GAA) manufacturing processes. This selection is a significant milestone for Nova’s ELIPSON® platform, which provides non-destructive, in-die material characterization for semiconductor fabrication. The adoption of ELIPSON® highlights Nova’s commitment to delivering innovative solutions that meet the evolving needs of the semiconductor industry, enhancing the company’s positioning in the market.

Nova Ltd. Completes $750 Million Convertible Notes Offering

On September 5, 2025, Nova Ltd. successfully closed a private offering of $750 million in convertible senior notes due 2030, including an additional $100 million exercised by initial purchasers. The notes, which do not bear regular interest, are convertible into ordinary shares and are intended to fund general corporate purposes, including potential mergers and acquisitions. This financial maneuver positions Nova Ltd. strategically for future growth and expansion in the semiconductor industry, potentially impacting stakeholders by enhancing the company’s operational capabilities and market competitiveness.

Nova Upsizes Convertible Notes Offering to $650 Million

On September 3, 2025, Nova Ltd. announced the pricing of an upsized private offering of $650 million in 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2030. The offering, initially set at $500 million, was increased due to demand and is aimed at qualified institutional buyers. The proceeds, estimated at $631.5 million after expenses, will be used for general corporate purposes, including potential mergers and acquisitions, business development, and new product development. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen Nova’s market position and provide flexibility for future growth opportunities.

Nova Ltd. Announces $500 Million Convertible Notes Offering

On September 2, 2025, Nova Ltd. announced a proposed private offering of $500 million in 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2030, targeting qualified institutional buyers. The offering includes an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $75 million in notes. The proceeds will fund capped call transactions to mitigate potential share dilution and support general corporate purposes, including potential mergers and acquisitions. This strategic financial move is expected to bolster Nova’s market positioning and operational flexibility in the semiconductor industry.

Nova Unveils Nova WMC Platform for Advanced Semiconductor Packaging

On August 26, 2025, Nova announced the release of the Nova WMC, a next-generation modular optical metrology platform designed for advanced packaging in semiconductor manufacturing. This innovative platform is built to handle a variety of wafer sizes and forms, supporting multiple metrology technologies. The Nova WMC has already been adopted by a leading memory manufacturer and has received several additional orders, highlighting its ability to address major industry challenges and its potential as a key tool for next-generation packaging applications. The company has started recognizing revenue from the first system and expects further revenue by the end of 2025.

Nova Ltd. Engages in Investor Conferences to Strengthen Market Presence

Nova Ltd. announced on August 12, 2025, that its senior management will participate in several investor conferences in August and September, including events hosted by Needham, Jefferies, Evercore ISI, Benchmark, and Citi. These conferences, held in various formats such as virtual and in-person meetings, provide Nova with opportunities to engage with investors and stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.