National Storage Affiliates (NSA) AI Stock Analysis

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National Storage Affiliates

(NYSE:NSA)

60Neutral

National Storage Affiliates scores moderately due to solid profitability and a strong balance sheet, but faces challenges with declining revenue and cash flow. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns despite an attractive dividend yield. Mixed earnings call results indicate both opportunities and risks, contributing to a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Acquisitions

NSA acquired 4 wholly-owned self-storage properties for approximately $39.6 million.

Earnings

The 2025 earnings guidance was reiterated, suggesting potential improvements in the second half of the year.

Stock Buyback

A new share repurchase program has been approved, authorizing the repurchase of up to $350 million of common shares.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

NSA missed 1Q FFO/sh, $0.54 vs $0.56/sh consensus.

Market Competition

NSA faces more relative risk in its guide compared to larger peers, with an expectation of slightly negative same-store growth.

Occupancy

SS avg occupancy declined by 190 basis points and end of period occupancy weakened by 240 basis points.

National Storage Affiliates (NSA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.65B

Dividend Yield6.53%

Average Volume (3M)831.99K

Price to Earnings (P/E)58.3

Beta (1Y)0.79

Revenue Growth-9.89%

EPS Growth-70.29%

CountryUS

Employees1,466

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength70

IndustryREIT - Industrial

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.10

Shares Outstanding76,489,210

10 Day Avg. Volume835,922

30 Day Avg. Volume831,985

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.86

Price to Book (P/B)2.71

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio9.04

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.60

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.87

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.04

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.60

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$38.11

Price Target Upside7.53% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering10

National Storage Affiliates Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Storage Affiliates Trust is a Maryland real estate investment trust focused on the ownership, operation and acquisition of self storage properties located within the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas throughout the United States. As of September 30, 2020, the Company held ownership interests in and operated 788 self storage properties located in 35 states and Puerto Rico with approximately 49.5 million rentable square feet. NSA is one of the largest owners and operators of self storage properties among public and private companies in the United States.

How the Company Makes MoneyNational Storage Affiliates generates revenue primarily through the rental income from its self-storage facilities. The company owns and operates a vast portfolio of self-storage properties, which provide rental spaces to customers on a short-term or long-term basis. NSA's unique business model involves partnering with regional self-storage operators, known as Participating Regional Operators (PROs), which allows the company to leverage local expertise and enhance operational efficiencies. This partnership model not only helps in expanding its property portfolio but also contributes to stable and recurring revenue streams. Additionally, NSA may engage in ancillary services like the sale of storage-related products (such as locks and boxes) and tenant insurance, further diversifying its income sources. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as occupancy rates, rental rate increases, and strategic acquisitions of new properties.

National Storage Affiliates Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Storage Affiliates demonstrates solid profitability and a strong balance sheet with low leverage. However, declining revenue and free cash flow, along with reduced equity, pose potential concerns for future growth and financial flexibility. The company should focus on reversing the revenue and cash flow decline to sustain its robust financial standing.

Income Statement

Positive

National Storage Affiliates shows solid profitability with a significant gross profit margin of 100% and a strong EBIT margin of about 72.5% for the 2024 period. However, there is a decline in total revenue from $858 million in 2023 to $770 million in 2024, indicating a negative growth trend. The net profit margin of approximately 24.8% in 2024 reflects stable profitability, yet EBITDA margin has decreased to 28.9% from 73% in the previous year, suggesting increased operational expenses.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, reflecting conservative financial leverage. A strong equity ratio of 20.1% suggests a stable capital structure with considerable equity financing. However, stockholders' equity has decreased from $1.42 billion in 2023 to $1.08 billion in 2024, indicating potential concerns with equity retention. Return on equity stands at approximately 17.7%, demonstrating good profitability relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Free cash flow has decreased from $406 million in 2023 to $344 million in 2024, indicating a negative growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.9 suggests efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 1.8, indicating healthy cash flow coverage but highlighting a decline in free cash flow generation.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
770.34M	858.06M	801.57M	585.67M	432.22M
	Gross Profit
558.48M	407.08M	590.54M	430.41M	308.74M
	EBIT
297.16M	336.69M	296.33M	222.63M	146.17M
	EBITDA
487.01M	626.72M	529.49M	380.94M	263.34M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
111.52M	156.67M	183.76M	146.94M	79.48M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
50.41M	94.59M	35.31M	25.01M	18.72M
	Total Assets
5.35B	5.93B	6.07B	5.56B	3.51B
	Total Debt
3.47B	3.68B	3.58B	2.96B	1.94B
	Net Debt
3.42B	3.62B	3.54B	2.94B	1.92B
	Total Liabilities
3.59B	3.81B	3.68B	3.08B	2.08B
	Stockholders Equity
1.08B	1.42B	1.65B	1.78B	968.96M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
344.41M	406.03M	400.12M	303.35M	203.90M
	Operating Cash Flow
363.06M	441.58M	443.85M	331.35M	220.65M
	Investing Cash Flow
425.42M	161.10M	-584.16M	-2.00B	-509.68M
	Financing Cash Flow
-825.42M	-557.19M	154.64M	1.67B	286.45M

National Storage Affiliates Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price35.44

Price Trends

50DMA

36.73

Negative

100DMA

36.82

Negative

200DMA

39.91

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.25

Positive

RSI

44.95

Neutral

STOCH

14.87

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.34, below the 50-day MA of 36.73, and below the 200-day MA of 39.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NSA.

National Storage Affiliates Risk Analysis

National Storage Affiliates disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Storage Affiliates reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Storage Affiliates Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PLYM	79 Outperform	$744.90M	5.31	26.05%	5.93%	-3.48%	615.20%
EXR	79 Outperform	$32.58B	34.18	6.46%	4.44%	14.72%	-4.21%
PSA	76 Outperform	$52.31B	29.61	20.20%	4.02%	3.08%	-8.54%
IIPR	75 Outperform	$1.55B	10.64	7.78%	13.74%	-1.33%	-8.62%
CUBE	74 Outperform	$9.77B	25.18	13.72%	4.87%	2.15%	-5.99%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.77B	10.47	0.42%	8531.49%	6.23%	-16.09%
NSA	60 Neutral	$4.65B	58.32	5.66%	6.53%	-9.89%	-70.29%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NSA

National Storage Affiliates

35.44

-0.62

-1.72%

CUBE

Cubesmart

42.67

0.28

0.66%

EXR

Extra Space Storage

148.58

2.79

1.91%

PSA

Public Storage

304.98

27.27

9.82%

IIPR

Innovative Industrial Properties

55.45

-48.63

-46.72%

PLYM

Plymouth Industrial Reit

16.57

-3.65

-18.05%

National Storage Affiliates Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -6.19%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture. While there were positive developments like sequential revenue growth, successful PRO transition, and strategic acquisitions, these were tempered by declines in core FFO, same-store revenues, and increasing interest expenses.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Sequential Improvement in Same-Store Revenue Growth

There was a 130 basis points sequential improvement in same-store revenue growth on a year-over-year basis, with Portland and Houston markets inflecting positive.

Successful PRO Transition and Operational Improvements

The completion of the PRO transition led to better search rankings, enhanced pricing algorithms, and declines in personnel expenses. Contract rates increased approximately 5% from the first quarter.

Acquisition Activity and Market Positioning

Closed on three assets totaling approximately $40 million and sold two properties totaling $10 million. Proceeds will be used to pay down debt and fund future acquisitions.

Negative Updates

Decline in Core FFO Per Share

Core FFO per share declined 10% from the prior year due to a decrease in same-store NOI and increased interest expense.

Same-Store Revenue and NOI Decline

Same-store revenues declined 3%, and NOI growth was negative 5.7%, driven by lower occupancy and increased expenses.

Increased Interest Expense

Interest expense was $1 million higher due to the maturity of a swap, resulting in a $0.01 drag on the quarter's results.

Company Guidance

During the National Storage Affiliates First Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company reported several key metrics and provided guidance for the upcoming year. Same-store revenue growth improved by 130 basis points sequentially, with Portland and Houston showing positive inflections. Contract rates increased approximately 5% from the first quarter levels, and April occupancy rose by 20 basis points to 83.8%. Core FFO per share was reported at $0.54, marking a 10% decline from the previous year due to increased interest expenses and a decrease in same-store NOI. Despite a 190 basis point drop in average occupancy and a 1% decline in average revenue per square foot, management expressed optimism for a moderately better spring leasing season. They highlighted the potential for revenue growth fueled by improved pricing power and occupancy through the summer months. Net debt-to-EBITDA stood at 6.9 times, with expectations to reduce it to 6%-6.5% in the latter half of the year. Guidance remains unchanged, with the high end assuming a recovery in the housing market, while the low end accounts for no material improvement.

National Storage Affiliates Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Rebecca Steinfort to Leave National Storage Affiliates Board

Neutral

Feb 13, 2025

On February 13, 2025, Rebecca L. Steinfort announced her decision not to seek re-election to the board of trustees of National Storage Affiliates Trust at the next annual meeting on May 12, 2025. Her departure will result in the reduction of the board size from twelve to eleven members, and her choice was not due to any disputes with the company.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.