Want to see NP full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A
(NYSE:NP)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$29.00
▼(-12.73% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/01/26
The score is anchored by strong operating performance and cash generation plus a constructive earnings outlook with raised guidance and improving underwriting. These positives are meaningfully offset by elevated balance-sheet risk (deeply negative equity and higher debt) and weak current technical momentum with the stock trading below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Raised growth and margin outlook
The raised outlook combines substantial expected revenue growth with a very high adjusted EBITDA margin, indicating strong operating leverage. If delivered, this should support durable earnings expansion and provide resources for continued product development, distribution growth, and capital allocation.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative equity and rising debt
Persistently negative equity and higher debt materially reduce financial flexibility even while operations remain profitable. This balance-sheet structure can constrain investment and capital allocation, increase dependence on continued cash generation, and leave Neptune less resilient if underwriting or growth conditions weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Raised growth and margin outlook
The raised outlook combines substantial expected revenue growth with a very high adjusted EBITDA margin, indicating strong operating leverage. If delivered, this should support durable earnings expansion and provide resources for continued product development, distribution growth, and capital allocation.
Read all positive factors
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A (NP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.80B
Dividend Yield4.86%
Average Volume (3M)476.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth32.95%
EPS Growth-15.53%
CountryUS
Employees62
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.42
Shares Outstanding93,798,090
10 Day Avg. Volume669,203
30 Day Avg. Volume476,237
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.30
Price to Book (P/B)-17.71
Price to Sales (P/S)25.25
P/FCF Ratio84.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.18Price Target Upside2.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$202.72M
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. functions as a technology-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in flood insurance solutions. The company provides a range of offerings, including both primary and excess flood coverage for residential an...
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong set of operational and financial achievements: record revenue and margins, improved underwriting (lifetime loss ratio <20%), notable productivity gains driven by AI-enabled engineering and Atlas+, expanded product limits and capacity, and raised full-year guidance. The main cautions were conservative weather assumptions (limiting near-term upside), dependence on a notable acquisition/book contribution for part of the EBITDA growth, regulatory/policy timing uncertainty around FEMA map modernization and potential AI oversight, and modest leverage following repurchases. On balance the positive operational momentum, efficiency gains, and improved underwriting significantly outweigh the listed risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Profitability
Revenue of $55.9 million, up ~33% year-over-year; Adjusted EBITDA of $34.5 million, up ~36% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~61.7%–62% (expanding ~165 basis points vs. prior year).
Negative Updates
Weather-Driven Uncertainty and Conservative Assumptions
Guidance and growth assumptions explicitly exclude storm-driven upside and assume a below-average Atlantic hurricane season per NOAA; management noted second-half sales are typically storm-driven, so a benign season limits upside and creates timing risk in comps.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Profitability
Revenue of $55.9 million, up ~33% year-over-year; Adjusted EBITDA of $34.5 million, up ~36% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~61.7%–62% (expanding ~165 basis points vs. prior year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Neptune raised 2026 guidance to $199 million of revenue (about 25% growth) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 60–61%, a view that excludes any upside from FEMA initiatives and incorporates NOAA’s below‑average Atlantic hurricane outlook; that outlook follows a record Q2 (revenue $55.9M, +33% YoY; adjusted EBITDA $34.5M, +36% YoY, 62% margin, +165 bps), premium in force $419M (+32%), >316,000 policies in force (+29%), TTM revenue per employee $3.0M and adj. EBITDA per employee $1.8M, lifetime written loss ratio 19.5% (down >500 bps), renewal retention 86%, a 45‑provider capacity panel, $15M building limits, net revolver draw ~$240M (~2.1x TTM adj. EBITDA, $233M post‑quarter paydown), and $32M of share repurchases to date against a $100M authorization ($94M remaining).Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 137.43M | 159.55M | 119.30M | 84.87M |
| Gross Profit | 92.28M | 103.06M | 79.23M | 54.51M |
| EBITDA | 82.58M | 75.59M | 66.93M | 47.37M |
| Net Income | 39.00M | 37.41M | 34.59M | 17.89M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 102.21M | 65.30M | 48.15M | 41.67M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 72.05M | 8.04M | 7.09M | 8.13M |
| Total Debt | 240.00M | 240.00M | 133.65M | 174.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 324.45M | 292.79M | 414.14M | 429.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | -222.24M | -227.49M | -365.99M | -387.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 72.96M | 47.69M | 46.21M | 14.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 72.96M | 51.67M | 49.93M | 18.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.26M | -3.98M | -3.71M | -4.03M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -49.25M | -35.21M | -42.47M | -9.87M |
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Negative
33.23
Price Trends
31.28
Negative
30.13
Negative
27.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.31
Positive
29.17
Positive
18.71
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.71, above the 50-day MA of 31.28, and above the 200-day MA of 27.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.17 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NP.
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
NP
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A
27.24
-1.21
-4.25%
GRND
Grindr
14.17
-0.59
-4.00%
DSP
Viant Technology
12.73
4.34
51.85%
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Neptune Insurance Adds Independent Director to Board
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from six to seven members and elected David Noble as an independent Class I director, with a term running until the 2029 annual meeting of stockholders. Noble, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.