Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A (NP)
NYSE:NP
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Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A
(NYSE:NP)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(19.31% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:06/27/26
The score is primarily driven by strong profitability/cash generation and a constructive earnings update (raised revenue guidance, maintained high margin targets, and a sizable buyback). These positives are tempered by elevated balance-sheet risk from persistently negative equity and higher debt, with technical momentum supportive and valuation reasonable but not clearly cheap.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Neptune’s operating cash flow and free cash flow profile has strengthened materially, with FCF positive and growing in 2025 and cash roughly matching net income in 2024–2025. Durable cash generation supports investment, debt reduction and the $100M buyback without relying on one-time asset sales.
Negative Factors
Negative equity
Consistently negative shareholders’ equity is a structural balance-sheet weakness that can constrain strategic options, increase covenant sensitivity, and impair investor confidence. This persistent capital shortfall elevates insolvency risk and undermines conventional leverage and solvency metrics for continued growth.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Neptune’s operating cash flow and free cash flow profile has strengthened materially, with FCF positive and growing in 2025 and cash roughly matching net income in 2024–2025. Durable cash generation supports investment, debt reduction and the $100M buyback without relying on one-time asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A (NP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)240.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)1.73
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees60
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.40
Shares Outstanding94,895,910
10 Day Avg. Volume207,764
30 Day Avg. Volume240,096
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)-17.71
Price to Sales (P/S)25.25
P/FCF Ratio84.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue23.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit36.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda37.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.40Price Target Upside9.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$196.58M
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. functions as a technology-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in flood insurance solutions. The company provides a range of offerings, including both primary and excess flood coverage for residential an...
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, expanding business fundamentals — double-digit revenue growth, record efficiency metrics, notable AI-driven product launches (Atlas+, ChatGPT integration, Proteus), capacity expansion, and a $100M buyback — while acknowledging manageable near-term headwinds (seasonal margin pressure, modest retention dip, slow housing turnover, channel and product expansion constraints, and weather/regulatory uncertainty). Management framed margin and churn items as timing or addressable factors and reiterated confidence with raised revenue guidance and stable margin targets.Positive Updates
Record Q1 Revenue and Profitability
Revenue of $37.8M in Q1 2026, up ~28.8% year-over-year; net income of $7.3M and adjusted net income of $13.4M; adjusted EBITDA of $21.6M, up 26% YoY.
Negative Updates
Q1 Margin Pressures from Seasonality and One-Time Costs
Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin (~57.1%) was below full-year target due to typical seasonality (Q1 is lowest-margin quarter) and front-loaded public-company audit/compliance expenses; company frames this as a timing issue rather than structural.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q1 Revenue and Profitability
Revenue of $37.8M in Q1 2026, up ~28.8% year-over-year; net income of $7.3M and adjusted net income of $13.4M; adjusted EBITDA of $21.6M, up 26% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Neptune raised its full‑year 2026 revenue target to $195.0 million and reiterated an adjusted EBITDA margin goal of 60%–61% (Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin was ~57.1% due to seasonality and front‑loaded public company audit costs), citing Q1 momentum (Q1 revenue $37.8M, +28.8–29% YoY; adjusted EBITDA $21.6M, +26%; net income $7.3M; adjusted net income $13.4M; written premium $86.7M; premium in force ~$389M and rising toward $400M). The company also approved a $100M share repurchase program to be funded by free cash flow over the next two years, expects to continue reducing revolver debt (current balance ~$222M, ~2.2x trailing adjusted EBITDA after a $5M paydown), and highlighted record TTM revenue per employee of $2.8M and adjusted EBITDA per employee of $1.7M as drivers of its confidence that 60% is a floor, not a ceiling.Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 123.63M | 159.55M | 119.30M | 84.87M |
| Gross Profit | 80.44M | 103.06M | 79.23M | 54.51M |
| EBITDA | 78.21M | 75.59M | 66.93M | 47.37M |
| Net Income | 34.82M | 37.41M | 34.59M | 17.89M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 85.30M | 65.30M | 48.15M | 41.67M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.39M | 8.04M | 7.09M | 8.13M |
| Total Debt | 227.00M | 240.00M | 133.65M | 174.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 298.65M | 292.79M | 414.14M | 429.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | -213.36M | -227.49M | -365.99M | -387.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 55.78M | 47.69M | 46.21M | 14.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 56.88M | 51.67M | 49.93M | 18.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.13M | -3.98M | -3.71M | -4.03M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -35.61M | -35.21M | -42.47M | -9.87M |
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
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Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Neptune Insurance Holds 2026 Virtual Annual Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders as a virtual audio webcast, with approximately 70.98% of voting power represented, to address board elections and auditor ratification. Stockholders elec...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Neptune Insurance Posts Strong Q1 Growth, Approves Buyback
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 results showing strong top-line momentum, with revenue up 29% to $37.8 million and written premium rising 26% to $86.7 million, alongside record new business sales. Net...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.