Heineken NV (HEIA) AI Stock Analysis

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Heineken NV

(Amsterdam:HEIA)

Select Model

Rating:67.25Neutral

Price Target:EUR 76.00▼(-4.47% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/06/26

The score is driven mainly by mixed financial performance: strong and durable cash generation is offset by notable margin compression, weaker ROE, and meaningful leverage. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, but the overall score is held back by a relatively high P/E and only moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Global scale and portfolioInternational scale and a broad portfolio give Heineken multiple routes to reach consumers across mature and emerging markets. Owned breweries and local operating companies support market-specific execution, while beer and cider diversification can help the business maintain relevance across channels over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Margin compressionThe steep decline in net margin shows that revenue scale is not currently translating into comparable profit. If the weaker earnings conversion persists, Heineken will have less capacity to reinvest, absorb operating pressures, reduce debt, or deliver improving returns despite its global footprint.

Heineken NV (HEIA) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)

Market Cap: EUR 43.95B
Dividend Yield: 2.41%
Average Volume (3M): 721.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.5
Beta (1Y): 0.78
Revenue Growth: 0.81%
EPS Growth: 26.57%
Country: Netherlands
Employees: 85,000
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic

Heineken NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heineken N.V. is a prominent beverage company engaged in the worldwide production and sale of a diverse portfolio that includes beers, ciders, soft drinks, and bottled water. Its extensive range of beers features globally recognized labels such as He...

How the Company Makes Money

Heineken makes money mainly by producing and selling branded alcoholic beverages—primarily beer—through a global network of operating companies and distribution channels. Its core revenue stream is net sales from shipments of beer and other beverages...

Heineken NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: cash generation is a clear strength (solid operating cash flow and consistently positive free cash flow), but profitability has weakened with significant net margin compression (down to ~3.3% in 2024) and returns have fallen (ROE ~5.0% in 2024). Leverage is meaningful and flexibility has softened with debt rising and equity declining in 2025.

Income Statement

66Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

72Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	36.50B	28.75B	29.82B	30.36B	28.72B	22.14B
Gross Profit	9.43B	10.29B	10.51B	10.70B	11.36B	8.57B
EBITDA	5.96B	6.21B	5.29B	5.15B	6.41B	6.39B
Net Income	2.27B	1.89B	978.00M	2.30B	2.68B	3.32B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.04B	54.96B	55.07B	56.39B	53.42B	49.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.83B	4.77B	2.35B	2.38B	2.77B	3.25B
Total Debt	20.64B	20.45B	17.36B	18.24B	16.38B	16.87B
Total Liabilities	36.34B	34.34B	32.67B	33.60B	31.50B	30.12B
Stockholders Equity	19.12B	17.98B	19.58B	20.06B	19.55B	17.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.97B	2.61B	3.32B	1.75B	2.48B	2.58B
Operating Cash Flow	5.81B	5.01B	5.50B	4.43B	4.50B	4.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.83B	-2.46B	-2.44B	-3.58B	-2.68B	-2.29B
Financing Cash Flow	-255.00M	153.00M	-2.57B	-816.00M	-2.74B	-2.87B

Heineken NV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price79.56

Price Trends

50DMA72.88Positive

100DMA73.70Positive

200DMA70.89Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.81Negative

RSI75.73Negative

STOCH76.07Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:HEIA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.84, above the 50-day MA of 72.88, and above the 200-day MA of 70.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.73 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:HEIA.

Heineken NV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

NL:HEIA against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NL:HEIA	67Neutral	EUR 43.95B	19.45	12.22%	2.41%	0.81%	26.57%
NL:AD	62Neutral	EUR 28.39B	13.00	15.64%	3.79%	-0.24%	24.38%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
NL:MICC	49Neutral	EUR 10.84B	59.00	21.22%	―	0.52%	-68.82%
NL:SLIGR	49Neutral	EUR 385.01M	15.57	5.63%	7.69%	-3.79%	-3.53%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NL:HEIA and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
NL:HEIA	Heineken NV	79.56	14.19	21.70%
NL:AD	Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.	32.75	-1.46	-4.26%
NL:SLIGR	Sligro Food Group NV	9.10	0.13	1.47%
NL:MICC	Magnum Ice Cream Co. N.V.	17.70	4.73	36.47%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026

Heineken NV AI Stock Analysis