National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Risk Analysis

The drilling and hydraulic fracturing process requires significant volumes of water and an ability to recycle or dispose of water produced as a by-product of gas production. Limitations or restrictions on the Company's ability to secure sufficient amounts of water, including disruptions from natural causes (such as drought) or issues with transportation availability and costs, could impact its operations. If the Company is unable to secure adequate water volumes, drilling and completions can be delayed, or it would have to obtain new sources of water at increased costs. Similarly, if the Company experiences limitations or restrictions on its ability to recycle or dispose of its produced water, whether due to environmental regulations, permit requirements, transportation issues or other factors, producing wells may need to be shut-in and new wells may be delayed until such time as adequate recycling or disposal capacity is obtained, which can require significant lead times for permitting and could result in increased costs, delays in the Company's operations and adverse impacts on its cash flow and results of operations.

The Company's earnings and cash flow may be impacted by the amount of income or expense it expends or records for employee benefit plans. This is particularly true for pension and other post-retirement benefit plans, which are dependent on actual plan asset returns and factors used to determine the value and current costs of plan benefit obligations. In addition, if medical costs rise at a rate faster than the general inflation rate, the Company might not be able to mitigate the rising costs of medical benefits. Increases to the costs of pension, other post-retirement and medical benefits could have an adverse effect on the Company's financial results. The Company's earnings and cash flows may also be impacted by the rate treatment of certain income and expense activity, including the crediting of employee benefit plan trust income to ratepayers by reducing delivery rates and customer revenues, and the refund of regulatory liability balances. The application of current rate treatment is subject to change in a future rate proceeding.

Financial results in the Company's Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment are materially dependent on prices received for its natural gas production. Both short-term and long-term price trends affect the economics of exploring for, developing, producing, and gathering natural gas. Natural gas prices can be volatile and can be affected by various factors, including weather conditions, natural disasters, consumer demand, national and worldwide economic conditions, economic disruptions caused by terrorist activities, acts of war or major accidents, domestic and foreign political conditions and events, the price and availability of alternative fuels, the proximity to, and availability of, sufficient availability of and capacity on transportation and liquefaction facilities, regional and global levels of supply and demand, energy conservation measures, and government regulations. The Company sells the natural gas that it produces at a combination of current market prices, indexed prices or through fixed- price contracts. The Company hedges a substantial portion of future sales that are based on indexed prices utilizing the physical sale counterparty and/or the financial markets. The prices the Company receives depend upon factors beyond the Company's control, including the factors affecting price mentioned above. Any prolonged reduction in natural gas prices could result in the Company reducing the level of exploration and production activity the Company otherwise would pursue, which could have a material adverse effect on its future revenues, cash flows and results of operations. In the Company's Pipeline and Storage segment, significant changes in the price differential between equivalent quantities of natural gas at different geographic locations or sustained high natural gas prices relative to other sources of energy could adversely impact the Company. For example, if the price of natural gas at a particular receipt point on the Company's pipeline system increases relative to the price of natural gas at other locations, then the volume of natural gas received by the Company at the relatively more expensive receipt point may decrease, or the Company may need to discount the approved tariff rate for that transportation path in the future in order to maintain the existing volumes on its system. Changes in price differentials can cause shippers to seek alternative lower priced natural gas supplies and, consequently, alternative transportation routes. In some cases, shippers may decide not to renew transportation contracts due to changes in price differentials. While much of the impact of lower volumes under existing contracts would be offset by the straight fixed-variable rate design, this rate design does not protect Supply Corporation or Empire where shippers do not contract for expiring capacity at the same quantity and rate. If contract renewals were to decrease, revenues and earnings in this segment may decrease. Significant changes in the price differential between futures contracts for natural gas having different delivery dates could also adversely impact the Company. For example, if the prices of natural gas futures contracts for winter deliveries to locations served by the Pipeline and Storage segment decline relative to the prices of such contracts for summer deliveries (as a result, for instance, of increased production of natural gas within the segment's geographic area or other factors), then demand for the Company's natural gas storage services driven by that price differential could decrease. These changes could adversely affect future revenues, cash flows and results of operations. In the Company's Utility segment, during periods when natural gas prices are significantly higher than historical levels, customer demand could be reduced, thereby decreasing delivery revenues, particularly in the Company's Pennsylvania service territory where delivery revenues are not protected by a revenue decoupling mechanism. Customers may also have trouble paying the resulting higher bills when gas prices are higher or in periods of economic uncertainty, which could increase bad debt expenses and could ultimately reduce earnings. Additionally, increases in the cost of purchased gas affect cash flows and can therefore impact the amount or availability of the Company's capital resources.

The Company's businesses are subject to regulation under a wide variety of federal and state laws, regulations and policies. Existing statutes and regulations, including current tax rates and state prevailing wage rate schedules, may be revised or reinterpreted and new laws and regulations may be adopted or become applicable to the Company or its contractors, which may increase the Company's costs, require refunds to customers or affect its business in ways that the Company cannot predict. Administrative agencies may apply existing laws and regulations in unanticipated, inconsistent or legally unsupportable ways, making it difficult to develop and complete projects, and harming the economic climate generally. In addition, judicial decisions limiting the authority of regulatory agencies, or decisions impacting current regulations and policies implemented by such agencies, could create uncertainty regarding the regulatory landscape and impact the Company's ability to plan for future investments. Various aspects of the Company's operations are subject to regulation by a variety of federal and state agencies with respect to permitting and environmental requirements. In some areas, the Company's operations may also be subject to locally adopted ordinances. Administrative proceedings or increased regulation by these agencies could lead to operational delays or restrictions and increased expense for one or more of the Company's subsidiaries. The Company is subject to the jurisdiction of the PHMSA. The PHMSA issues regulations and conducts evaluations, among other things, that set safety standards for pipelines and underground storage facilities. If as a result of these or similar new laws or regulations the Company incurs material compliance costs that it is unable to recover fully through rates or otherwise offset, the Company's financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows could be adversely affected. The Company is subject to the jurisdiction of the FERC with respect to Supply Corporation, Empire and some transactions performed by other Company subsidiaries. The FERC, among other things, approves the rates that Supply Corporation and Empire may charge to their gas transportation and/or storage customers. Those approved rates also impact the returns that Supply Corporation and Empire may earn on the assets that are dedicated to those operations. Pursuant to the petition of a customer or state commission, or on the FERC's own initiative, the FERC has the authority to investigate whether Supply Corporation's and Empire's rates are still "just and reasonable" as required by the NGA, and if not, to adjust those rates prospectively. If Supply Corporation or Empire is required in a rate proceeding to adjust the rates it charges its gas transportation and/or storage customers, or if either Supply Corporation or Empire is unable to obtain approval for rate increases, particularly when necessary to cover increased costs, Supply Corporation's or Empire's earnings may decrease. In addition, the FERC exercises jurisdiction over the construction and operation of interstate natural gas transmission and storage facilities and also possesses significant penalty authority with respect to violations of the laws and regulations it administers. The operations of Distribution Corporation are subject to the jurisdiction of the NYPSC, the PaPUC and, with respect to certain transactions, the FERC. The NYPSC and the PaPUC, among other things, approve the rates that Distribution Corporation may charge to its utility customers. Those approved rates also impact the returns that Distribution Corporation may earn on the assets that are dedicated to those operations. If Distribution Corporation is unable to obtain approval from these regulators for the rates it is requesting to charge utility customers, particularly when necessary to cover increased costs, earnings and/or cash flows may decrease.

The laws, regulations and other initiatives to address climate change may impact the Company's financial results. Federal, state and local legislative and regulatory initiatives proposed or adopted in an attempt to limit the effects of climate change, including greenhouse gas emissions, could have significant impacts on the energy industry including government-imposed limitations, prohibitions or moratoriums on the use and/or production of natural gas, establishment of a carbon tax and/or methane fee, lack of support for system modernization, as well as accelerated depreciation of assets and/or stranded assets. Federal and state legislatures have from time to time considered bills that would establish a cap-and-trade program, cap-and-invest program, methane fee, carbon tax, or other similar mechanisms to provide incentive for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. A number of states have also adopted energy strategies or plans with goals that include the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. For example, Pennsylvania has a methane reduction framework for the natural gas industry which has resulted in permitting changes with the stated goal of reducing methane emissions from well sites, compressor stations and pipelines. Furthermore, in 2019, the New York State legislature passed the CLCPA, which created emission reduction and electrification mandates, and could ultimately impact the Utility segment's customer base and business. Pursuant to the CLCPA, in December 2022, New York's Climate Action Council ("CAC") approved a final scoping plan that includes recommendations to strategically downsize and decarbonize the natural gas system and curtail use of natural gas and natural gas appliances, as well as recommendations to meet the CLCPA's emissions reduction targets in the transportation, buildings, electricity, industry, agriculture & forestry and waste sectors. The final scoping plan also recommends statewide and cross-sector policies relevant to gas system transition, economywide strategies, land use, local government, and adaptation and resilience. Additionally, the scoping plan recommends the implementation of a cap-and-invest program in New York. In January 2023, New York's Governor directed the NYDEC and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to advance an economywide cap-and-invest program that establishes a declining cap on greenhouse gas emissions, and invests in programs to drive emissions reductions. In addition, in October 2025, a New York State court directed NYDEC to promulgate rules and regulations to ensure compliance with emissions reductions limits outlined in the CLCPA by February 6, 2026, which may include such a cap-and-invest program. If this proposed program or a similar program becomes effective and the Company becomes subject to new or revised cap-and-trade programs, cap-and-invest programs, methane charges, fees for carbon-based fuels or other similar costs or charges, the Company may experience additional costs and incremental operating expenses, which would impact our future earnings and cash flows, and may also experience decreased revenue in the event that implementation of these policies leads to reduced demand for natural gas. In addition to the CLCPA, legislation or regulation that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could also include natural gas bans, greenhouse gas emissions limits and reporting requirements, carbon taxes and/or similar fees on carbon dioxide, methane or equivalent emissions, restrictive permitting, increased efficiency standards requiring system remediation and/or changes in operating practices, and incentives or mandates to conserve energy or use renewable energy sources. For example, in May 2023, New York State passed legislation that prohibits the installation of fossil fuel burning equipment and building systems in new buildings commencing on or after December 31, 2025, subject to various exemptions. While the Company does not currently expect that this legislation will have a substantial impact on its financial results or operations, future legislation or regulation that aims to reduce natural gas demand or to impose additional operations requirements or restrictions on natural gas facilities, if effectuated, could impact our future earnings and cash flows. In addition, in December 2024 (and later amended in February 2025), New York's Governor signed the Climate Change Superfund Act into law, which will require certain fossil fuel producers, refiners and related entities to pay into a state "climate superfund" an amount commensurate with the entity's past global greenhouse gas emissions over a specified period of time. The NYDEC has until June 2027 to develop implementing regulations. The Act is currently the subject of multiple federal court lawsuits challenging its constitutionality. Additionally, the trend toward increased energy conservation, change in consumer behaviors, competition from renewable energy sources, and technological advances to address climate change may reduce the demand for natural gas, which could impact our future earnings and cash flows. For further discussion of the risks associated with environmental regulation to address climate change, refer to Part II, Item 7, MD&A under the heading "Environmental Matters." Further, the trend toward a low-carbon economy could shift funding away from, or limit or restrict certain sources of funding for, companies focused on fossil fuel-related development or carbon-intensive investments. To the extent financial markets view climate change and greenhouse gas emissions as a financial risk, the Company's cost of and access to capital could be negatively impacted.

Climate change could create acute and/or chronic physical risks to the Company's operations, which may adversely affect financial results. Acute physical risks include more frequent and severe weather events, which may result in adverse physical effects on portions of natural gas infrastructure, and may disrupt the Company's supply chain, workforce, and ultimately its operations. Disruption of production activities, as well as natural gas transportation and distribution systems, could result in reduced operational efficiency, and customer service interruption. Severe weather events could also cause physical damage to facilities, which could lead to reduced revenues, increased insurance premiums or increased operational costs. To the extent the Company's regulated businesses are unable to recover those costs, or if the recovery of those costs results in higher rates and reduced demand for Company services, the Company's future financial results could be adversely impacted. Chronic physical risks include long-term shifts in climate patterns resulting in new storm patterns or chronic increased temperatures, which could impact natural gas demand, and adversely impact the Company's future financial results.

The Company's operations in its various reporting segments are subject to inherent hazards and risks such as: fires; natural disasters; explosions; blowouts during well drilling; collapses of wellbore casing or other tubulars; pipeline ruptures; spills; and other hazards and risks that may cause personal injury, death, property damage, environmental damage or business interruption losses. Additionally, the Company's facilities,machinery, equipment, and technology/software systems may be subject to sabotage. These events, in turn, could lead to governmental investigations, recommendations, claims, fines or penalties. As protection against operational hazards, the Company maintains insurance coverage against some, but not all, potential losses. The Company also seeks, but may be unable, to secure written indemnification agreements with contractors that adequately protect the Company against liability from all of the consequences of the hazards described above. The occurrence of an event not fully insured or indemnified against, the imposition of fines, penalties or mandated programs by governmental authorities, the failure of a contractor to meet its indemnification obligations, or the failure of an insurance company to pay valid claims could result in substantial losses to the Company. In addition, insurance may not be available, or if available may not be adequate, to cover any or all of these risks. It is also possible that insurance premiums or other costs may rise significantly in the future, so as to make such insurance prohibitively expensive. Hazards and risks faced by the Company, and insurance and indemnification obtained or provided by the Company, may subject the Company to litigation or administrative proceedings from time to time. Such litigation or proceedings could result in substantial monetary judgments, fines or penalties against the Company or be resolved on unfavorable terms, the result of which could have a material adverse effect on the Company's results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.