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NextDecade (NEXT) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q2, 2026
Risk Change Over Time
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1The exercise of outstanding warrants and exchangeable loans may have a dilutive effect on our common stock.
We issued warrants together with the entry into the Corporate Credit Agreement in December 2024 (the "2024 Warrants") and the upsize of the Corporate Credit Agreement in May 2025 (the "2025 Warrants" and together with the 2024 Warrants, the "Warrants"). The 2024 Warrants were issued on December 31, 2024 in two equal tranches for an aggregate of approximately 7.2 million shares of Company common stock, with the first tranche exercisable at $7.15 per share and the second tranche exercisable at $9.30 per share. The 2025 Warrants were issued on May 14, 2025 for approximately 2.0 million shares of Company common stock exercisable at $9.30 per share. On November 17, 2025, the Corporate Credit Agreement was amended to, in part, upsize the loan by $50 million and recharacterize $50 million of the principal outstanding thereunder as a Series A term loan, the principal of which, including any interest in kind, can be exchanged (the "Exchange Right") into Company common stock at a price of $9.50 per share. To the extent the Warrants or the Exchange Right are exercised, additional shares of our common stock will be issued, which will result in dilution to the holders of our common stock and increase the number of shares eligible for resale in the public market. Sales of substantial numbers of such shares in the public market or the fact that the Warrants or the Exchange Right may be exercised could adversely affect the market price of our common stock.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2Our largest stockholders will substantially influence our Company for the foreseeable future, including the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval, and such control may prevent you and other stockholders from influencing significant corporate decisions and may result in conflicts of interest that could cause our stock price to decline.
As of February 20, 2026, affiliates of HGC NEXT INV LLC, TotalEnergies SE and Ninteenth Investment Company (collectively, the "Large Stockholders") beneficially own, in the aggregate, approximately 47% of the combined voting power of our outstanding shares of common stock. As a result, the Large Stockholders have the ability to influence the election of our directors and the outcome of corporate actions requiring stockholder approval, such as: (i) a merger or a sale of our Company, (ii) a sale of all or substantially all of our assets, and (iii) amendments to our articles of incorporation and bylaws. This concentration of voting power and control could have a significant effect in delaying, deferring or preventing an action that might otherwise be beneficial to our other stockholders and be disadvantageous to our stockholders with interests different from those entities and individuals. Additionally, three members of our Board of Directors are affiliated with certain Large Stockholders. The Large Stockholders also have significant control over our business, policies and affairs by their affiliates serving as directors of our Company. They may also exert influence in delaying or preventing a change in control of the Company, even if such change in control would benefit the other stockholders of the Company. In addition, the significant concentration of stock ownership may adversely affect the market value of the Company's common stock due to investors' perception that conflicts of interest may exist or arise.
- Debt & Financing - Risk 3We will be required to seek additional debt and equity financing in the future to complete future phases of the Rio Grande LNG Facility and the development of any CCS projects and may not be able to secure such financing on acceptable terms, or at all.
Since we will be unable to generate any revenue while we are in the development and construction stages, which will be for multiple years with respect to each phase of construction of the Rio Grande LNG Facility, we will need additional financing to provide the capital required to execute our business plan. We will need significant additional funding to develop and construct future phases of the Rio Grande LNG Facility and any CCS projects as well as for working capital requirements and other operating and general corporate purposes. Our ability to obtain the capital necessary to fund development and construction of future projects will depend on the condition of the credit and capital markets, which could become constrained due to factors outside our control. There can be no assurance that we will be able to raise sufficient capital on acceptable terms, or at all. If sufficient capital is not available on satisfactory terms, we may be required to delay, scale back or eliminate the development of business opportunities, and our operations and financial condition may be adversely affected to a significant extent. Additional debt financing for future phases of development at the Rio Grande LNG Facility, if obtained, may involve agreements that include liens on subsequent trains or other assets and covenants limiting or restricting our ability to take specific actions, such as paying dividends or making distributions, incurring additional debt, acquiring or disposing of assets and increasing expenses. Debt financing would also be required to be repaid regardless of our operating results. In addition, the ability to obtain financing for future phases of the Rio Grande LNG Facility is expected to be contingent upon, among other things, entry into EPC agreements for construction of subsequent trains and sufficient long-term commercial agreements prior to the commencement of construction. For additional information regarding our ability to enter into such agreements, see "- Our ability to generate cash is substantially dependent upon us entering into satisfactory contracts with third parties and the performance of those third parties under those contracts."
- Debt & Financing - Risk 4The substantial amount of indebtedness incurred to finance construction of Phase 1 of the Rio Grande LNG Facility may adversely affect Rio Grande's our subsidiaries' cash flow and its the ability to operate its their business, remain in compliance with debt covenants and make payments on its indebtedness.
Our subsidiaries have incurred a substantial amount of indebtedness. This substantial level of indebtedness increases the possibility that they may be unable to generate cash sufficient to pay, when due, the principal or interest on such indebtedness or to refinance such indebtedness ahead of its scheduled maturity. This indebtedness and obligations thereunder could have other important consequences to you as a stockholder. For example: - any failure to comply by our subsidiaries, including the Rio Grande Project Entities, with the obligations under their debt instruments, including financial and other restrictive covenants, could result in an event of default under the applicable instrument;- we may be more vulnerable to adverse changes in general economic, industry and competitive conditions and adverse change in government regulation affecting our subsidiaries' ability to pay obligations when due;- our subsidiaries may need to dedicate a substantial portion of their future cash flow from operations to payments on indebtedness, thereby reducing the availability of cash flows to fund working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions, other general corporate purposes and any future dividends or share repurchases;- the ability to refinance indebtedness will depend on the condition of credit markets and capital markets, and our subsidiaries' financial condition at such time. Any refinancing could be at higher interest rates and may require compliance with more onerous covenants, which could further restrict business operations;- we may have limited flexibility in planning for, or reacting to, changes in our business and the industry in which we operate; and - our indebtedness may place us and our subsidiaries, including the Rio Grande Project Entities, at a competitive disadvantage compared to competitors that have less debt.
Risk Highlights Q2, 2026
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 44
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1Our common stock could be delisted from Nasdaq.
Our common stock is currently listed on Nasdaq. However, we cannot assure you that we will be able to comply with the continued listing standards of Nasdaq. If we fail to comply with the continued listing standards of Nasdaq, our common stock may become subject to delisting. If Nasdaq delists our common stock from trading on its exchange for failure to meet the continued listing standards, we and our stockholders could face significant material adverse consequences including: - a limited availability of market quotations for our securities;- a limited amount of analyst coverage; and - a decreased ability for us to issue additional securities or obtain additional financing in the future.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2Provisions of our charter documents or Delaware law could discourage, delay or prevent us from being acquired even if being acquired would be beneficial to our stockholders and could make it more difficult to change management.
Provisions of the Certificate of Incorporation and our Amended and Restated Bylaws (the "Bylaws") may discourage, delay or prevent a merger, acquisition or other change in control that stockholders might otherwise consider favorable, including transactions in which stockholders might otherwise receive a premium for their shares. In addition, these provisions may frustrate or prevent any attempt by our stockholders to replace or remove our current management by making it more difficult to replace or remove our Board of Directors. Among other things, these provisions include: - elimination of our stockholders' ability to call special meetings of stockholders;- elimination of our stockholders' ability to act by written consent;- an advance notice requirement for stockholder proposals and nominations for members of our Board of Directors;- a classified Board of Directors, the members of which serve staggered three-year terms;- the express authority of our Board of Directors to make, alter or repeal the Bylaws;- the authority of our Board of Directors to determine the number of director seats on our Board of Directors; and - the authority of our Board of Directors to issue preferred stock with such terms as it may determine. In addition, the Certificate of Incorporation provides, subject to limited exceptions, that the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware will, to the fullest extent permitted by law, be the sole and exclusive forum for any claims, including (i) any derivative actions or proceedings brought on our behalf, (ii) any action asserting a claim of a breach of a fiduciary duty owed by, or any wrongdoing by, a director, officer or employee or (iii) any action asserting a claim pursuant to any provision of the Delaware General Corporation Law, the Certificate of Incorporation or the Bylaws, (iv) any action to interpret, apply, enforce or determine the validity of the Certificate of Incorporation or the Bylaws or (v) any action asserting a claim governed by the internal affairs doctrine. Any person or entity purchasing or otherwise acquiring any interest in shares of our capital stock shall be deemed to have notice of and to have consented to the provisions described above. This choice of forum provision may limit a stockholder's ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum that it finds favorable for disputes with us or any of our directors, officers, other employees or stockholders which may discourage lawsuits with respect to such claims. Alternatively, if a court were to find the choice of forum provision that is contained in the Certificate of Incorporation to be inapplicable or unenforceable in an action, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving such action in other jurisdictions, which could adversely affect our business, operating results and financial condition.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 3The exercise of outstanding warrants and exchangeable loans may have a dilutive effect on our common stock.
We issued warrants together with the entry into the Corporate Credit Agreement in December 2024 (the "2024 Warrants") and the upsize of the Corporate Credit Agreement in May 2025 (the "2025 Warrants" and together with the 2024 Warrants, the "Warrants"). The 2024 Warrants were issued on December 31, 2024 in two equal tranches for an aggregate of approximately 7.2 million shares of Company common stock, with the first tranche exercisable at $7.15 per share and the second tranche exercisable at $9.30 per share. The 2025 Warrants were issued on May 14, 2025 for approximately 2.0 million shares of Company common stock exercisable at $9.30 per share. On November 17, 2025, the Corporate Credit Agreement was amended to, in part, upsize the loan by $50 million and recharacterize $50 million of the principal outstanding thereunder as a Series A term loan, the principal of which, including any interest in kind, can be exchanged (the "Exchange Right") into Company common stock at a price of $9.50 per share. To the extent the Warrants or the Exchange Right are exercised, additional shares of our common stock will be issued, which will result in dilution to the holders of our common stock and increase the number of shares eligible for resale in the public market. Sales of substantial numbers of such shares in the public market or the fact that the Warrants or the Exchange Right may be exercised could adversely affect the market price of our common stock.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 4Our largest stockholders will substantially influence our Company for the foreseeable future, including the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval, and such control may prevent other stockholders from influencing significant corporate decisions and may result in conflicts of interest that could cause our stock price to decline.
As of February 20, 2026, affiliates of HGC NEXT INV LLC, TotalEnergies SE and Ninteenth Investment Company (collectively, the "Large Stockholders") beneficially own, in the aggregate, approximately 47% of the combined voting power of our outstanding shares of common stock. As a result, the Large Stockholders have the ability to influence the election of our directors and the outcome of corporate actions requiring stockholder approval, such as: (i) a merger or a sale of our Company, (ii) a sale of all or substantially all of our assets, and (iii) amendments to our articles of incorporation and bylaws. This concentration of voting power and control could have a significant effect in delaying, deferring or preventing an action that might otherwise be beneficial to our other stockholders and be disadvantageous to our stockholders with interests different from those entities and individuals. Additionally, three members of our Board of Directors are affiliated with certain Large Stockholders. The Large Stockholders also have significant control over our business, policies and affairs by their affiliates serving as directors of our Company. They may also exert influence in delaying or preventing a change in control of the Company, even if such change in control would benefit the other stockholders of the Company. In addition, the significant concentration of stock ownership may adversely affect the market value of the Company's common stock due to investors' perception that conflicts of interest may exist or arise.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 5Our Second Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation grants our board of directors the power to designate and issue additional shares of common and/or preferred stock.
Our authorized capital consists of 480,000,000 shares of common stock and 1,000,000 shares of preferred stock. Our preferred stock may be designated into series pursuant to authority granted by our Second Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation (the "Certificate of Incorporation"), and on approval from our board of directors (the "Board of Directors" or "Board"). The Board of Directors, without any action by our common stockholders, may designate and issue additional shares of preferred stock in such classes or series as it deems appropriate and establish the rights, preferences and privileges of such shares, including dividends, liquidation and voting rights. The rights of holders of other classes or series of stock that may be issued could be superior to the rights of holders of our common stock. The designation and issuance of shares of capital stock having preferential rights could adversely affect other rights appurtenant to shares of our common stock.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 6Raising additional capital may cause dilution to existing stockholders, restrict our operations or require us to relinquish rights. Additionally, sales of a substantial number of shares of our common stock or other securities in the public market could cause our stock price to fall.
We may seek the additional capital necessary to fund our operations through public or private equity offerings and debt financings. To the extent that we raise additional capital through the sale of equity or convertible debt securities, existing stockholders' ownership interests will be diluted, and the terms may include liquidation or other preferences that adversely affect their rights as a stockholder. Debt financing, if available, may involve agreements that include covenants limiting or restricting our ability to take specific actions such as incurring additional debt, making capital expenditures or declaring dividends. In addition, sales of a substantial number of shares of our common stock or other securities in the public market could occur at any time. These sales, or the perception in the market that the holders of a large number of shares intend to sell shares, could reduce the market price of our common stock.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 7The market price of our common stock has fluctuated in the past and is likely to fluctuate in the future. Holders of our common stock could lose all or part of their investment.
The securities markets in general and our common stock have experienced significant price and volume volatility. The market price and trading volume of our common stock may continue to experience significant fluctuations due not only to general stock market conditions but also to a change in sentiment in the market regarding our operations, business prospects or those of companies in our industry. In addition to the other risk factors discussed in this section, the price and volume volatility of our common stock may be affected by: - domestic and worldwide supply of and demand for natural gas and corresponding fluctuations in the price of natural gas;- fluctuations in our quarterly or annual financial results or those of other companies in our industry;- issuance of additional equity securities which causes further dilution to stockholders;- sales of a high volume of shares of our common stock by our stockholders (including sales by our directors, executive officers, and other employees) or the perception or expectation that such sales may occur;- short sales, hedging, and other derivative transactions on shares of our common stock;- the volume of shares of our common stock available for public sale;- operating and stock price performance of companies that investors deem comparable to us;- events affecting other companies that the market deems comparable to us;- changes in government regulation or proposals applicable to us;- actual or potential non-performance by any customer or a counterparty under any agreement;- announcements made by us or our competitors of significant contracts;- changes in accounting standards, policies, guidance, interpretations or principles;- general conditions in the industries in which we operate;- general economic conditions; and - the failure of securities analysts to cover our common stock or changes in financial or other estimates by analysts. The stock prices of companies in the LNG industry have experienced wide fluctuations that have often been unrelated to the operating performance of these companies. Following periods of volatility in the market price of a company's securities, securities class action litigation often has been initiated against a company. If any class action litigation is initiated against us, we may incur substantial costs and our management's attention may be diverted from our operations, which could materially adversely affect our business and financial condition.
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