YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPFN) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:YPFN Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 56.36
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 44.52
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 11.84
- One Year Ago EPS
- -MXN 9.96
MX:YPFN Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 82.13M
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 107.33B
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -MXN 107.25B
- YoY Revenue Growth
- -99.91%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/28/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Wednesday, October 28, 2026
MX:YPFN Upcoming Earnings
YPF Sociedad Anonima's next earnings date is estimated for March 4, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
MX:YPFN Q3 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
No slide deck is available for this earnings event.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call was strongly positive. YPF reported substantial year-over-year growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, shale production, cash generation, liquidity, and balance-sheet strength, while advancing major shale, infrastructure, renewable fuels, power, and LNG projects. The main challenges were declines in conventional oil and total gas production, sequentially lower fuel and refinery volumes, ongoing maintenance, pricing and freight volatility, and infrastructure and approval-related constraints. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Company Guidance
YPF said it remains on track to reach 250,000 bpd by December, with preliminary October production above 245,000 bpd, and expects upstream investment to increase in Q4; it expects its full-year CapEx target of $5.8 billion-$6.2 billion, VMOS first oil export early next year, to start filling all pipes in January and for everybody to start exporting in March, while production next year will follow the not-yet-approved budget and be bigger than we thought two years ago. The company expects its second crude-treatment train to double capacity by Q4 this year, expects to submit three RIGI projects in the near term, covering about $44 billion of total gross CapEx over 16-26 years, close to 2,200 drilling locations, about 270,000 bbl of oil per day and 28 million cubic meter of natural gas per day at plateau, and expects Argentina LNG FID to be reached by November 26th of this year, with investment by 2031 around $29 billion, 60%-70% expected to be debt, and US EXIM financing up to $6 billion potentially finalized by middle of next year.
- Strong Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA GrowthQ3 revenue reached $6.6 billion, up 41% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.5 billion, the second-highest level in YPF's history and 84% above last year, driven by the shift from conventional fields to shale, record refinery activity, cost efficiency, and favorable prices. Adjusted EBITDA margin remained high at 38%.
- Record-Level Cash Generation and Balance Sheet ImprovementFree cash flow reached approximately $900 million to $901 million, described as the second-highest level in YPF's history, while the company reported its highest-ever cash balance. Net leverage declined to approximately 0.8x from 1.1x in June and 2.1x a year ago, representing a reduction of more than 60% year-over-year and the lowest level in more than a decade.
- Liquidity Reached a Record HighLiquidity increased from approximately $2.5 billion at the end of Q2 to $3.7 billion at the end of September, the highest level ever recorded by YPF. Management said this covers more than 2.5 years of debt maturities and provides flexibility to fund investments, manage maturities, and maintain its financial profile.
- Successful International Bond Issuance and Debt ManagementYPF issued a new $1.2 billion international bond maturing in 2035 at a 7.85% yield and a 300-basis-point spread over U.S. Treasuries, its lowest spread ever. The transaction attracted approximately $2.2 billion of demand and was described as the largest corporate bond issuance in Argentina in the last 11 years. YPF subsequently repurchased approximately $530 million of bonds maturing between 2027 and 2029 and used a $170 million local bond issuance at a 5.5% yield to prepay shorter-term local bonds.
- Shale Oil Production Continued to AccelerateShale oil production averaged 224,000 barrels per day in Q3, up 5% sequentially and 32% year-over-year. Preliminary October production exceeded 245,000 barrels per day, while management reported a daily Vaca Muerta production record of 252,330 barrels. YPF remains on track to reach approximately 250,000 barrels per day by December, with management indicating a possible December average of 255,000 barrels per day.
- Transformation Toward an Unconventional PortfolioExcluding conventional assets being divested, approximately 95% of YPF's oil output would come from shale. Management also stated that, including all sales, the company is already approximately 95% unconventional, meeting its goal of becoming an unconventional and integrated company.
- New Shale Processing and Production InfrastructureYPF inaugurated the first train of a crude oil treatment plant at the Luján de Cuyo block with initial capacity of 31,000 barrels per day, expected to double with a second train by Q4. In September, the company completed approximately $400 million of integrated oil and gas treatment facilities at La Angostura Sur, adding capacity of approximately 60,000 barrels of oil per day and 4 million cubic meters of gas per day.
- Upstream Cost Efficiency ImprovedTotal lifting cost declined to $7.8 per BOE, driven by the continued shift toward shale and lower conventional volumes. Excluding blocks under divestment, lifting costs would have been below $7 per BOE. Lifting costs in the oil hubs remained at approximately $4.2 per BOE, broadly stable sequentially.
- Improved Drilling and Completion ProductivityDuring the first nine months, shale drilling speed reached approximately 354 meters per day, up 29% versus 2023. Unconventional fracking improved to 11.1 stages per day and 18.8 pumping hours per day, increases of 46% and 30%, respectively, versus 2023. YPF also achieved a drilling record of 4,770 meters of lateral length in a single run.
- Robust Refinery Operations and Downstream PerformanceRefinery processing averaged 344,000 barrels per day in Q3, up 5% year-over-year, supported by stronger utilization at the La Plata and Luján de Cuyo refineries. YPF met domestic demand without fuel imports, supplied local refiners, expanded fuel exports, and achieved record premium gasoline production. Midstream and downstream adjusted EBITDA margins expanded to approximately $32 per barrel.
- Fuel Market Leadership and Export GrowthYPF maintained a 58% domestic fuel market share, rising to 61% when including gasoline and diesel produced by YPF and sold through third-party stations. Fuel sales increased 2% year-over-year, and the company exported 166,000 cubic meters of gasoline and diesel, representing approximately 4% of total fuel sales.
- Downstream Recognition and Product DifferentiationLa Plata refinery was named Refinery of the Year for the second consecutive year. YPF received Digital Technology of the Year for its Ekons Matrix AI fuel-blending solution, and Infinia Turboclean became the first fuel in the region to receive TOP TIER+ certification.
- Portfolio Optimization Generated Significant ProceedsSince December, YPF has sold several non-core assets for total proceeds of approximately $2.2 billion. The company agreed to sell the Mendoza non-operating and Chachahuén conventional areas for $405 million and its 70% stake in Metrogas for $780 million. It received the initial 10% payments from both transactions, totaling close to $120 million.
- Full Ownership of YPF LuzYPF acquired the remaining 25% stake in YPF Luz for $430 million, obtaining 100% ownership. YPF Luz operates 3.8 GW of thermal and renewable capacity, has 100% dollar-linked revenues, and has grown its initial capacity nearly fivefold over the last decade. Its thermal availability is approximately 90%, compared with a 72% national average, while wind and solar load factors are 50% and 31%, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA increased from approximately $56 million in 2017 to about $500 million in 2026, while expected net leverage declined from 3.8x to around 1.5x.
- Large-Scale Northern Vaca Muerta RIGI PipelineYPF is preparing three RIGI projects covering five blocks in the northern Vaca Muerta oil window, with approximately $44 billion of gross CapEx over 16 to 26 years. Including LLL Oil, YPF said it will have filed close to $70 billion of oil investment under RIGI. The projects include close to 2,200 drilling locations and could produce approximately 270,000 barrels of oil per day and 28 million cubic meters of natural gas per day at plateau. At full scale, gross revenue could be approximately $8.2 billion annually based on a Brent price of $70 per barrel and a gas price of $3.50 per million BTU.
- Investment Program Remained on TrackYPF invested $1.3 billion in Q3, with 70% directed to shale operations. CapEx was 26% higher than last year, mainly due to new wells, new facilities at La Angostura Sur, and refinery maintenance. The company remains on track to meet its full-year CapEx target of $5.8 billion to $6.2 billion, with upstream investment expected to increase in Q4.
- VMOS Construction Progressed Toward Export OperationsApproximately 85% of VMOS construction was completed by September, and the two monobuoys arrived at the port in Río Negro. Management said VMOS is expected to be completed on schedule and within cost, with pipe filling beginning in January and exports expected to begin in March.
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Renewable Fuels Project AdvancedSanta Fe Bio signed a long-term offtake agreement with TotalEnergies for future sustainable aviation fuel and other renewable fuels from the San Lorenzo biorefinery. The project is expected to require more than $400 million of CapEx, with estimated production capacity of approximately 170,000 tons per year of SAF and HVO, mostly for export markets. Management said the agreement provides long-term commercial visibility and supports financing.
- Argentina LNG Project Reached Major Financing MilestoneThe Argentina LNG project targets 12 million tons per year of liquefaction capacity, approximately 3.5 million tons per year of liquids, and 70,000 barrels per day of condensate. YPF holds a 36% stake, while Eni and XRG each hold 32%. Total investment is expected to reach approximately $29 billion by 2031. US EXIM provided a long-term financial proposal of up to $6 billion, described as one of the largest potential financing proposals associated with an Argentine energy project, and management expects final investment decision on November 26.
- Capital Deployment Supports Future GrowthManagement said YPF is in a strong financial position to accelerate upstream activity in 2027. The company currently has 18 rigs, with one moving to Mendoza, and expects to have 22 rigs in February. Management said further details on the 2027 budget and production outlook will be provided in April.
MX:YPFN Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 04, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 39.75- | -31.37 | ― | ― |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 44.5256.36 | -9.96 | 666.04% (+66.31) | |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 45.3157.67 | 2.44 | 2261.54% (+55.23) | |
| May 07, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 19.2219.35 | -0.75 | 2675.00% (+20.10) | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 12.62-31.37 | -13.9 | -125.68% (-17.47) | |
| Nov 07, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 13.71-9.96 | 70.45 | -114.13% (-80.40) | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 11.482.44 | 24.8 | -90.15% (-22.36) | |
| May 07, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 14.24-0.75 | 31.18 | -102.41% (-31.94) | |
| Mar 06, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 13.09-13.90 | -89.23 | 84.42% (+75.33) | |
| Nov 07, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 16.8570.45 | -6.2 | 1236.36% (+76.65) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat Missed