TeraWulf Inc (WULF) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management reaffirmed a target to contract an incremental 250–500 MW of critical IT capacity per year and provided detailed operational and financial guidance: Lake Mariner entered Q3 with 102 operating critical MW (CB‑3 online), CB‑4 is in Level‑2 commissioning (Level‑3 mid‑August, Level‑4 late September) and CB‑5 is expected to begin energizing its first data hall in very early January; the Anthropic lease is ~401 MW (~$19 billion over an initial 20‑year term) and the Abernathy JV sale is ~ $530 million (with $250M received, ~$150M due by 12/31/26 and ~$130M by 4/30/27). Liquidity and project finance targets: cash and restricted cash $3.0B (parent unrestricted cash ~$1.2B, pro forma ~$1.45B including Abernathy), WULF Compute gross cash ~$1.9B (~$1.5B net), ~$2.3B of project capex completed and ~$1.7B remaining, pro forma capitalization ~32% equity / 68% debt (vs ~26%/74% at financing), and estimated total project cost ~ $9.1M per critical IT MW (within prior $8–10M guidance). Financial cadence and margins: Q2 revenue $44.8M with HPC lease revenue $31.9M (+52% QoQ, ~71% of revenue), reported HPC leasing margin ~28% (adjusted to ~80% after removing tenant fit‑out, pre‑revenue and development items) vs a long‑term target of ~85%; TeraWulf will contribute ~$150M of tenant fit‑out costs (expected to generate >$300M incremental lease revenue over 10 years and, together with capacity increases from 162→168 MW, >$500M incremental lease revenue over initial terms). Other guidance items: peak electrician workforce scaled to ~1,000 to meet schedules, full‑year adjusted SG&A expected $75–100M, adjusted EBITDA was negative $18.3M in Q2, and management expects existing liquidity plus Abernathy proceeds to fund Lake Mariner commitments, Justified equity, Muskie LOCs, the Chesapeake acquisition and near‑term growth without returning to the equity markets.