Waste Connections (WCNN) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:WCNN Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 29.80
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 28.98
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 0.82
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 27.09
MX:WCNN Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 49.65B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 49.74B
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -MXN 95.64M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +9.09%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/21/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Waste Connections's next earnings date is estimated for February 17, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
No slide deck is available for this earnings event.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, with Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA above expectations, underlying margin expansion despite higher diesel costs, improved landfill and special-waste volumes, raised 2026 guidance, strong capital returns and a constructive 2027 growth framework. The company still faces negative unit volumes, fuel-cost pressure, weakness in plastics and residential construction, uncertain E&P activity, and ongoing Chiquita-related spending, but management characterized operating performance, liquidity and strategic positioning as strong.
For 2026, the company raised its outlook to revenue of approximately $10.09 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $3.345 billion or 33.2%, and adjusted free cash flow of at least $1.4 billion; Q4 guidance implies revenue of about $2.52 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.3%, up 20 basis points, excluding fuel. For 2027, the framework assumes mid- to high single-digit revenue growth, including about 1% combined rollover from acquisitions already completed and RNG facilities brought online in 2026, or a normalized acquisition contribution of 1% to 2%, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in what we would consider a normalized range from solid waste, and double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow per share; longer term, free cash flow conversion is expected to return to 48% to 50% from around 42%, with about $75 million of RNG spend this year largely not repeating, while pricing is generally expected to maintain a 150 basis point spread between price and cost.
- Q3 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Beat ExpectationsThird-quarter revenue was $2.638 billion, up $180 million or 7.3% year-over-year and above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $895.8 million, up 7.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%.
- Underlying Margin Expansion Despite Higher Fuel CostsUnderlying adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 50 basis points, while reported adjusted EBITDA margin increased 20 basis points year-over-year to 34%. Excluding approximately 30 basis points of higher fuel-cost impact, adjusted EBITDA margin would have been 34.3%.
- Solid Waste Pricing and Yield GrowthSolid waste core pricing was 5.5%, with pricing ranging from below 4% in the mostly exclusive Western region to above 6% in competitive regions. Fuel and material surcharges contributed approximately $30 million, or 1.3%, and solid waste yield was 4.3%.
- Improvement in Landfill, Special Waste and C&D VolumesLandfill tons increased 3% year-over-year, with rates per ton up approximately 4%. Special waste increased 7% and construction and demolition debris increased 5%, with the company stating that all three waste types showed year-over-year improvement for the first time in several quarters.
- E&P Waste GrowthE&P waste revenue increased 6% sequentially and approximately 5% organically year-over-year, led by a 9% increase in the U.S. The Permian benefited from rig count increasing approximately 10% since early in the year.
- Recycling and Landfill Gas Revenue GrowthRecycling revenue increased approximately 12% year-over-year, driven by higher OCC values. Landfill gas sales increased 35% year-over-year due to higher volumes from new renewable natural gas facilities and higher RIN values, which were up approximately 10% year-over-year to an average of about $2.50.
- Raised Full-Year 2026 OutlookThe company increased its full-year 2026 outlook to approximately $10.09 billion of revenue and approximately $3.345 billion of adjusted EBITDA, representing a 33.2% adjusted EBITDA margin. The increase reflected Q3 outperformance, incremental acquisition and commodity contributions, and expected recovery of higher fuel costs.
- Free Cash Flow Remains on TrackYear-to-date adjusted free cash flow was $1.09 billion, in line with expectations, and the company remains on pace to generate at least $1.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow for full-year 2026.
- Strong Acquisition Pipeline and Financial CapacityYear-to-date acquisitions represented $130 million in annualized revenue, including two West Coast solid waste collection franchises closed during Q3. Management said the pipeline remains robust, with additional transactions expected to close later in 2026 or early in 2027. Liquidity exceeded $1 billion and leverage remained approximately 2.75x debt to adjusted EBITDA.
- Shareholder Capital ReturnsThe Board authorized a 10% increase in the regular quarterly per-share cash dividend, marking the 16th consecutive double-digit increase since the dividend was initiated in 2010. Year-to-date share repurchases exceeded $1 billion, representing 2.5% of shares outstanding.
- Sustainability, RNG, Retention and Safety ProgressThe company has invested more than $500 million in sustainability-related projects since 2018 and remains on track to achieve its long-term sustainability targets. It is expanding its renewable natural gas facility network, introducing enhanced automation in recycling facilities, and reporting three years of improvement in employee retention along with record safety performance.
- Positive Preliminary 2027 Growth FrameworkAssuming no change in the current economic environment, management expects mid- to high single-digit revenue growth in 2027, supported by approximately 1% combined rollover from acquisitions and RNG facilities brought online in 2026, price-led organic growth, fuel and material surcharges, higher E&P waste and recycling revenue, and additional acquisitions.
- Expected 2027 Free Cash Flow Per Share GrowthManagement expects double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow per share in 2027, reflecting the continued declining impact of Chiquita spending and substantial completion of RNG capital expenditures. Longer term, management expects free cash flow conversion to return to 48% to 50%, compared with approximately 42% currently.
- Chiquita Remediation Costs Expected to DeclineManagement said Chiquita remediation costs declined from 2025 to 2026 and are expected to step down again in 2027 as the reaction cools, reducing leachate generation, disposal costs and infrastructure requirements. Covering and buffering work completed in 2026 will not repeat in 2027, and approximately 300 wells have already been drilled.
- Arrowhead and Rail Internalization ExpansionArrowhead volumes were running between 7,000 and 7,500 tons per day, approximately triple the level of less than three years ago. Management believes volumes could reach 8,500 to 9,000 tons over the next 24 months. Internalization was 58% in the quarter, with management expecting the business to remain in the 58% to 60% range, and a Florida rail project is expected to continue ramping into 2027.
- Disciplined M&A Strategy and CapacityManagement said the slower pace of 2026 M&A was not caused by capital allocation constraints, noting that the company has sufficient liquidity to pursue acquisitions and buybacks. Management characterized approximately $200 million of acquired revenue as a normalized low watermark and said acquisition activity over a three- to five-year period could resemble the 2022 through 2025 period.
- Strong Debt ProfileThe company reported an approximately 80% fixed and 20% floating debt mix, a weighted-average tenor of about eight years, an average cost of debt of about 4%, and no near-term maturities.
- AI Initiatives UnderwayManagement said it is encouraged by early indications from AI-driven operational applications. Initial pricing-related initiatives contributed benefits in 2025 and 2026 that exceeded expectations, while additional initiatives are being developed through 2027.
MX:WCNN Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 26.15- | 23.58 | ― | ― |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 28.9829.80 | 27.09 | 10.02% (+2.72) | |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 25.6828.41 | 23.62 | 20.26% (+4.79) | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 21.9922.61 | 21.08 | 7.27% (+1.53) | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 23.7723.58 | 22.18 | 6.30% (+1.40) | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 25.8627.09 | 25.14 | 7.75% (+1.95) | |
| Jul 23, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 23.1123.62 | 23.03 | 2.57% (+0.59) | |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 20.4321.08 | 19.16 | 10.04% (+1.92) | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 22.8022.18 | 20.23 | 9.63% (+1.95) | |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 24.0425.14 | 21.74 | 15.65% (+3.40) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.