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Vistra Corp (VST) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

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MX:VST Q3 2026 EPS Results

Actual EPS
MXN 60.09
Consensus EPS
MXN 55.42
Beat/Miss
Beat by +MXN 4.67
One Year Ago EPS
MXN 32.56

MX:VST Q3 2026 Revenue Results

Actual Revenue
MXN 114.24B
Expected Revenue
MXN 112.20B
Beat/Miss
Beat by +MXN 2.04B
YoY Revenue Growth
+24.89%

Earnings Announcement Details

Quarter
Q3 2026
Date
11/06/2026
Time
Before Open
Conference Call
Friday, November 6, 2026
MX:VST Upcoming Earnings

Vistra Corp's next earnings date is estimated for March 3, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.

Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio

MX:VST Q3 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00

Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck

Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Q3 2026
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2026|% Change Since:18.16%|
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive

The call was strongly positive, supported by record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, higher 2026 guidance, the completed Cogentrix acquisition, robust year-to-date growth, improving credit metrics, expanded share repurchases, and a substantial long-term free cash flow outlook. The company also emphasized strong customer demand and contracting opportunities. Offsetting concerns included lower near-term ERCOT prices, overstated interconnection queues, grid-connection delays, and political and regulatory uncertainty affecting project timing.

Company Guidance

Vistra narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and its 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, and introduced 2027 guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth. The Cogentrix transaction is expected to deliver high single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion over the near term, increasing to double-digit accretion beginning in 2029. Vistra still sees load growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030, adjusted free cash flow per share growing from just under $10.5 in 2025 to approximately $14 in 2027, and approximately 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow before growth per share from 2027 to 2030, with a 2030 free cash flow per share outlook of $24; its planning assumes $1 billion a year in share repurchases, $300 million a year in dividends, and roughly $3 billion a year of share repurchases.

  • Record Third-Quarter Adjusted EBITDAVistra delivered approximately $2.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, a company record. Adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion increased more than 50% compared with the third quarter of 2025.
  • Strong Generation and Retail PerformanceGeneration adjusted EBITDA increased to $2.280 billion from $1.544 billion in the prior-year quarter, driven primarily by average realized prices more than 10% higher per megawatt hour, higher capacity revenue, optimized dispatch of flexible gas generation, the restart of Martin Lake Unit 1, and contributions from Lotus assets. Retail contributed approximately $98 million of adjusted EBITDA, supported by favorable margins and strong customer volumes during hotter-than-normal weather.
  • High Fleet Availability During Record DemandCommercial availability approached 95% across the thermal fleet despite elevated demand from record third-quarter weather.
  • Raised 2026 GuidanceVistra narrowed its 2026 guidance ranges to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, with each range reflecting a higher midpoint than the original guidance. The company expects to finish above the midpoint of its original guidance range for the fifth consecutive year.
  • Introduced 2027 GuidanceVistra introduced 2027 guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, including the expected contribution from Cogentrix and the power purchase agreement with Meta for operating capacity at the Perry nuclear plant.
  • Cogentrix Acquisition ClosedVistra closed the Cogentrix acquisition on October 30. The transaction added approximately 5,500 megawatts for a net purchase price of approximately $4 billion, including 5 million shares valued at $185 per share, or approximately $729 per kilowatt of capacity.
  • Cogentrix Portfolio Expansion and AccretionWith Cogentrix, Vistra now owns approximately 50,000 megawatts of generation, including approximately 25,000 megawatts of modern combined-cycle gas generation across all major competitive markets. Vistra expects the transaction to deliver high single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion over the near term, increasing to double-digit accretion beginning in 2029.
  • Greater Geographic DiversificationJust under 40% of Vistra's generation earnings now comes from its Texas fleet, compared with 100% in early 2018, reflecting diversification across markets, technologies, and customer classes.
  • Record Peak Loads and Durable Demand DriversPJM and ERCOT both set new all-time peak load records in 2026, reaching approximately 168 gigawatts and 91 gigawatts, respectively. The company cited increased industrial activity, population growth, ongoing electrification, and data centers as sources of robust energy demand.
  • Long-Term Load Growth Outlook MaintainedDespite recent political and regulatory activity, Vistra maintained its outlook for load growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030. The company said its diversified fleet, flexible combined-cycle gas plants, and quick-start peaking plants are positioned to serve this growth.
  • Year-to-Date Earnings GrowthYear-to-date adjusted EBITDA totaled approximately $5.639 billion, representing a more than 35% increase over the prior-year period. The improvement was largely driven by higher average realized prices, higher PJM capacity payments, the return of Martin Lake Unit 1, fleet dispatch optimization, and Lotus assets.
  • Acquisition and Contracting ExecutionVistra has closed more than 12 gigawatts of acquisitions through Energy Harbor, Lotus, and Cogentrix at attractive acquisition multiples of less than 7x forward EBITDA on average. Its development team has delivered more than 4 gigawatts of long-term power purchase agreements across nuclear and gas sites.
  • Additional Growth Projects in DevelopmentVistra identified coal-to-gas conversions and the Permian Peaker new-build project as initiatives expected to begin contributing in 2028. The company is also in active discussions with large-load customers in PJM and ERCOT regarding existing and new-build assets.
  • Improved Credit ProfileVistra achieved investment-grade credit ratings from two of the three major credit rating agencies. Pro forma for Cogentrix and the redemption of Series A preferred stock, net debt to adjusted EBITDA was approximately 2.8x, and the company expects leverage to continue declining toward metrics consistent with its BBB flat and Baa2 target ratings.
  • Expanded Share Repurchase AuthorizationSince November 2021, Vistra has retired approximately 172 million shares at an average cost of approximately $39 per share, including approximately $1 billion of repurchases completed through November 2. Following additional Board authorization, approximately $2.5 billion remains authorized, and the company expects to fully utilize it by no later than the end of 2028.
  • Dividend Commitment MaintainedVistra continues to target at least $300 million of annual dividends.
  • Strong Free Cash Flow Per Share OutlookAdjusted free cash flow before growth per share is expected to increase from just under $10.5 in 2025 to approximately $14 in 2027, assuming the midpoint of guidance and share repurchases at the November 2 share price. Vistra stated it has line of sight to approximately 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow before growth per share from 2027 to 2030.
  • Significant Capital Allocation FlexibilityAfter announced commitments, Vistra expects to have roughly $2 billion per year available for additional share repurchases or growth projects. For its outlook, the company used a simplifying assumption of approximately $3 billion per year of share repurchases, while noting that additional growth projects could provide higher returns.
  • Active Contracting PipelineVistra continues to see strong interest in its assets and capabilities and remains involved in multiple conversations involving existing assets and new builds. It has not yet contracted Beaver Valley or the second part of Comanche Peak, and it cited additional Comanche Peak upgrade potential, gas-plant opportunities, and an announced PPA for its existing Odessa gas plant.
  • Customer Flexibility and PJM OpportunitiesCustomers are showing willingness to consider bridge solutions, backup generation, additional generation, or load curtailment while awaiting grid connections. Vistra said bilateral discussions in PJM remain active, and that the FERC action striking down the IRAS proposal and the delay of the RBP to next year provided additional time and clarity for contracting.
  • Investment and Operational FocusVistra reaffirmed a disciplined capital allocation approach, with a target return threshold of mid-teens or higher on a levered basis. The company also said it remains focused on preparing its fleet to deliver reliable performance through the coming winter months.

MX:VST Earnings History

MX:VST earnings history
Report DateFiscal QuarterForecast / EPSLast Year's EPSEPS YoY ChangePress Release
Mar 03, 20272026 (Q4)39.25-10.05――
Nov 06, 20262026 (Q3)55.4260.0932.5684.57% (+27.53)
Aug 07, 20262026 (Q2)30.0114.1415.07-6.17% (-0.93)
May 07, 20262026 (Q1)24.5953.39-17.3408.60% (+70.69)
Feb 26, 20262025 (Q4)42.9010.0520.56-51.13% (-10.51)
Nov 06, 20252025 (Q3)38.6032.5619.0371.07% (+13.52)
Aug 05, 20252025 (Q2)16.2815.0716-5.81% (-0.93)
May 07, 20252025 (Q1)9.97-17.30-2.7-541.38% (-14.60)
Feb 27, 20252024 (Q4)41.3720.56-11.16284.17% (+31.72)
Nov 07, 20242024 (Q3)21.5619.0330.6-37.81% (-11.57)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat Missed