EarningsQ2 2026 Earnings Report
MX:VST Q2 2026 EPS Results
Actual EPS$13.44
Consensus EPS$28.52
Beat/MissMissed by -$15.08
One Year Ago EPS$14.32
MX:VST Q2 2026 Revenue Results
Actual Revenue$92.32B
Expected Revenue$96.60B
Beat/MissMissed by -$4.28B
YoY Revenue Growth+27.96%
Earnings Announcement Details
QuarterQ2 2026
Date08/07/2026
TimeBefore Open
Conference CallFriday, August 7, 2026
MX:VST Upcoming Earnings
Vistra Corp's next earnings date is estimated for November 5, 2026, based on past reporting schedules.
Q2 2026 Earnings Call Audio
MX:VST Q2 2026 Earnings Call
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Q2 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call presents a largely positive picture driven by strong second-quarter execution (Q2 Adjusted EBITDA up ~31% YoY, generation EBITDA up ~68%), excellent operational reliability (>97% fleet availability), robust cash generation (> $10B projected across 2026–2027) and disciplined capital return (>$6.5B repurchased to date). Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and maintained 2027 midpoint opportunity while pursuing growth via strategic investments (Helix, Cogentrix, PJM nuclear PPAs) and preserving flexibility for further share buybacks. Offsetting these positives are market and policy headwinds—softening ERCOT forwards, battery-driven price compression, higher new-build costs, and Texas/market regulatory uncertainty (data center audits and evolving market constructs)—which create near-to-intermediate term visibility challenges. Overall, the company's operational and financial momentum outweighs the headwinds, but execution risks and regulatory developments remain important near-term variables.Company Guidance
Strong Q2 Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q2 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up roughly 30.7% year-over-year vs. Q2 2025 (approximately $1.35 billion), driven by both generation and retail contributions.
Material Generation Segment Improvement
Generation Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $994 million in the quarter versus ~$593 million in Q2 2025, an increase of ~67.7% YoY, supported by favorable hedging, ~5% higher average realized prices per MWh, higher PJM capacity revenues, restart of Martin Lake Unit 1, and Lotus asset contributions.
Retail Segment Stability
Retail contributed approximately $773 million of Adjusted EBITDA vs. ~$756 million in Q2 2025, a modest increase of ~2.3% YoY; Q2 remains seasonally strong for retail margins.
Operational Reliability and Maintenance Execution
Completed annual spring maintenance: nuclear refueling outages for three units and 92 planned gas/coal outages. During recent heat waves in Texas and PJM, commercial fleet availability exceeded 97%.
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance and 2027 Midpoint Opportunity
Reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B–$7.6B and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925B–$4.725B with confidence at or above the midpoint. Maintained 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4B–$7.8B (excluding Cogentrix and Meta-related contributions).
Strong Cash Generation and Capital Allocation
Forecast to generate >$10 billion of available cash in 2026 and 2027. Approximately $3.0 billion allocated to equity holders (share repurchases and dividends) in 2026–2027; since Nov 2021 retired ~171 million shares at an average cost of ~$38 and returned >$6.5 billion to shareholders (exceeding prior $6B target). Remaining repurchase authorization of ~$1.2 billion expected to be exhausted by end of 2027.
Targeted Growth Commitments
Expect to allocate ~$4.5B–$5B to accretive growth (Cogentrix acquisition, Permian Peakers, PJM nuclear PPA-backed projects with Meta, Oak Hill 2 solar PPA, and Helix). After allocations, expect ~$2.0B–$2.5B additional cash available through year-end 2027.
Strategic Helix Partnership
Vistra announced founding investor role in Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, NVIDIA, and Kuwait Investment Authority. Vistra committed up to $1.0 billion over time (amounts >$500 million subject to milestones) and will serve as preferred power partner, creating a new channel to monetize existing assets and pursue new-build opportunities.
Credit Rating Progress
Achieved investment-grade credit ratings from two major rating agencies and targeting mid-investment-grade ratings across all three agencies through disciplined EBITDA growth and potential selective debt paydown.
MX:VST Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed