Texas Pacific Land (TPL) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

The company reaffirmed fiscal‑year capital expenditure guidance of $65–75 million (year‑to‑date CapEx $29 million) and said planned second‑half spending on colocation cooling and waste‑heat capture is embedded in that range; management is in advanced talks on roughly 25 GW of power/compute projects with an expectation of one or more near‑term definitive agreements, and has been prioritizing cash deployment over buybacks. Key Q2 metrics cited: consolidated revenue ≈ $246 million (+4% sequential, +31% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $216 million (+19% seq, +30% YoY) with an 88% margin, free cash flow $156 million (+14% seq, +20% YoY), oil & gas royalty production ~39,700 BOE/d (+7% seq, +20% YoY), produced‑water royalty volumes 4.9 million barrels (+6% seq, +15% YoY) with water sales 663,000 barrels (‑19% seq, +38% YoY), SLEM revenues $24 million (+37% seq), a Phase 2b desalination facility commissioning toward 10,000 bbl/day capacity, a >10,000‑acre acquisition for ≈ $100 million, produced‑water royalty pricing at the high end (~>$0.08/ bbl) with expectations pore‑space royalties will rise over time, and a well inventory of 5.6 net permitted, 9.5 net DUCs and 3.4 net completed‑but‑not‑producing (18.4 net line‑of‑sight wells); management also expects oil cut to trend back toward 40%+.