Toast Inc (TOST) AI Stock Analysis

Toast Inc

(BMV:TOST)

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Action:N/A

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Positive Factors

Integrated recurring platformToast combines recurring software revenue with transaction-linked payments, allowing deeper product adoption to expand both subscription economics and payment volume. Recent ARR, SaaS and GPV growth shows the integrated platform is gaining scale across its restaurant customer base.

Negative Factors

Growth decelerationThe sharp slowdown in consolidated revenue growth raises the execution burden for Toast’s newer products and market opportunities. Sustaining strong earnings expansion will increasingly depend on location additions, module adoption and payments growth offsetting a slower core trajectory.

Toast Inc (TOST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: MXN 16.35B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 3,339
Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.2
Beta (1Y): -0.24
Revenue Growth: 11.90%
EPS Growth: 92.67%
Country: Mexico
Employees: 6,500
Sector: Technology
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Software - Infrastructure

Toast Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toast, Inc. delivers a comprehensive cloud-based digital technology platform tailored specifically for the restaurant sector, serving businesses across the United States and Ireland. Its extensive product suite features an array of hardware solutions...

Toast Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:1.02%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call emphasized broad top-line growth, margin expansion and strong product and go-to-market momentum (record location adds, high ARR and recurring gross profit growth, GPV growth, robust adjusted EBITDA improvement, and rapid early traction for AI-driven product Toast IQ Grow). Primary headwinds are hardware/memory-cost pressure, higher near-term operating investment and strategic inventory build impacting free cash flow. Management presented clear mitigation plans for hardware costs, raised full-year guidance for recurring gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, and signaled confidence in longer-term margin upside driven by core leverage and AI-driven efficiency.

Positive Updates

Strong Recurring Gross Profit Growth

Recurring gross profit streams grew ~28% year-over-year in Q2, driving top-line strength and forming the basis for raised full-year recurring gross profit guidance of 23%–25%.

Negative Updates

Hardware & Professional Services Drag

Hardware and professional services gross profit was negative and represented an 11% drag on recurring gross profit streams in the quarter, reflecting material pressure in hardware margins.

Company Guidance

Guidance: For Q3 Toast expects total subscription and fintech gross profit to grow 22–24% year‑over‑year and adjusted EBITDA of $210–220M; it raised full‑year 2026 guidance to recurring gross profit growth of 23–25% and adjusted EBITDA of $805–825M. Management framed that outlook on strong Q2 results (ARR +25%, recurring gross profit streams +28%, adjusted EBITDA $221M (37% margin), GAAP operating income $152M (26% margin), recurring gross profit growth + operating margin = 57% “Rule of 50”), record net adds of ~9,500 locations (total ~180K, +22% YoY), GPV $61B (+22%) with a 98 bps take rate, SaaS ARR +27%, subscription gross profit +32%, payments ARR +23%, fintech gross profit +26%, and a fintech net take of 59 bps (payments 50 bps); they expect free cash flow conversion to improve in H2, are reinvesting a ~$10M tariff refund into growth, and see a path to 40%+ long‑term adjusted EBITDA margins.

Toast Inc Risk Analysis

Toast Inc disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Toast Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Toast Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

MX:TOST against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XYZ	74Outperform	$45.79B	133.81	1.61%	―	5.07%	-87.94%
ACIW	68Neutral	$5.69B	25.61	15.06%	―	7.03%	-8.05%
FOUR	66Neutral	$3.16B	63.07	5.65%	―	32.44%	-78.82%
Sector *	61Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PAYP	60Neutral	$9.38B	28.41	36.22%	―	―	―
STNE	58Neutral	$1.89B	3.20	29.69%	―	-29.50%	―

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MX:TOST and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
MX:TOST	Toast, Inc. Class A	591.00	-71.90	-10.85%
ACIW	ACI Worldwide, Inc.	56.34	8.67	18.19%
XYZ	Block Inc.	76.22	1.92	2.58%
STNE	Stoneco	7.75	-7.96	-50.67%
FOUR	Shift4 Payments, Inc.	40.03	-28.35	-41.46%
PAYP	Paypay Corporation	14.03	-4.13	-22.74%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Toast Inc AI Stock Analysis