Smurfit Westrock (SW1N) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:SW1N Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 8.46
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 11.20
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -MXN 2.74
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 10.90
MX:SW1N Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 153.36B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 155.88B
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -MXN 2.52B
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +1.97%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/28/2026
- Time
- Before Open
- Conference Call
- Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Smurfit Westrock's next earnings date is estimated for February 17, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly optimistic about the company's strategic progress, merger integration, pricing actions, operational improvements, regional positioning, and 2027 outlook. However, results and the 2026 outlook were materially constrained by unprecedented energy and freight inflation, with additional pressure from weak Mexican and Brazilian demand, lower converting margins, and European industry stress.
For the full-year 2026, Smurfit WestRock now expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4.7 billion, with energy costs alone expected to represent approximately $700 million year on year headwind in 2026; North American volumes are expected to be “there or thereabouts” with the previous year in Q4, October is “line ball with last year,” and November order books are “reasonably good,” while Europe is “a couple of percent up on a same day basis” during October. The company expects full cost recovery of the latest increase in Q1 of next year, with material increases in its numbers through Q1 and Q2, and said the net increases are $170 in North America and €140 in Europe. Management said there is “no change to 2030 plan,” while 2027 budgets have not been completed and it expects the year to be “significantly better” and “a very good year” if everything stays relatively where it is today. CapEx guidance was lowered by $150 million for 2026, with €150 million more likely in 20, 31 or 2032 because a couple of projects were delayed by a number of months.
- Resilient Third-Quarter ProfitabilityThird-quarter adjusted EBITDA was 1.205 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.8%, which management described as resilient despite unprecedented and greater-than-anticipated cost inflation, predominantly in energy and freight.
- Tres Barras Mill Investment Delivering ReturnsThe Tres Barras kraftliner mill in Brazil has approximately 700 thousand tons of capacity and represents approximately €350 million of investment over the last 5 years. Management described it as delivering superior returns and benefiting from downstream box integration and upstream sustainably sourced forestry operations.
- Successful Post-Merger IntegrationManagement said Smurfit WestRock has unified the company under one banner across 40 countries, formed one culture, and established an owner-operator model that is well understood internally and externally.
- North American Corrugated and Customer-Service ProgressNorth American corrugated volumes showed sequential improvement in the third quarter, with a continued and developing strong pipeline. Management also reported improvements across all customer-service metrics, attention and retention of talent, and customer wins supported by improved quality, service, and innovation.
- Strong North American Paper DemandThe North American paper system across practically all grades remains sold out, allowing the company to prioritize orders and improve its business mix. Management said the full benefits are expected to become apparent as the company moves into 2027.
- Progress in Converting and InnovationThe converting businesses are progressively improving through continuous investments and motivated teams across corrugated and consumer operations. Innovation centers are supporting cross-selling opportunities, and management said the underlying trend of margin improvement in corrugated is significant.
- Improved Commercial ExecutionThe company has reduced its loss-making customers to fewer than 30. North American pricing increased approximately 5% from the second to the third quarter, while European pricing increased approximately 2% over the same period.
- Structural Growth in Paper Bags and SacksManagement reported a large structural shift toward the paper bag and sack business, where Smurfit WestRock is the largest producer in the United States. The business was described as growing very strongly.
- EMEA and APAC OutperformanceThe EMEA and APAC region continues to outperform its integrated peers. Its innovation offering helps customers navigate increasingly complex regulatory requirements, including digital compliance, and prior mill and conversion investments have improved quality and service KPIs.
- Latin American Strength and Strategic ExpansionLatin America continues to report excellent returns and adjusted EBITDA margins, supported by strong market positions, a well-invested asset base, and experienced operators. The company agreed to acquire CNPC's packaging assets, which management said will strengthen its position in Chile and the wider region and add paper integration.
- Colombia Biomass Boiler StartupThe company started up its approximately $100 million biomass boiler investment in Colombia during the quarter, which management said is helping offset energy price increases in that country.
- Consumer Volume ProgressConsumer converting volumes in the third quarter were broadly flat year over year for food and beverage and approximately 2% higher year over year in the HBA segment. Most consumer grades are sold out, and management described SBS as a strong grade with current price increases in the market.
- 2030 Plan Remains UnchangedManagement said the lower 2026 EBITDA starting point primarily affects the timing of the plan rather than its structural opportunity. The 2030 target remains unchanged, with the plan still based largely on internal actions such as working through unprofitable contracts and achieving positive North American volume growth.
- Expected Price-Cost RecoveryManagement expects full cost recovery from the latest paper price increase in the first quarter of next year. Price increases are expected to flow from paper into corrugated, export markets, and other paper grades, with material increases in reported numbers expected during the first and second quarters.
- Operational Benefits From the CombinationIn Latin America, management cited the elimination of a major side-reel issue at the Tres Barras mill, allowing the mill to run full out and receive full contribution for all paper produced. In Europe, management said the consumer business has improved radically and is positioned for strong growth alongside corrugated.
- CapEx Program MaintainedAlthough 2026 CapEx guidance was reduced by $150 million, management said required projects have not been stopped. A couple of projects were delayed by a number of months, with the spending likely shifting to 2031 or 2032.
MX:SW1N Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 12.18- | 6.39 | ― | ― |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 11.208.46 | 10.9 | -22.41% (-2.44) | |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 7.616.58 | -0.94 | 800.00% (+7.52) | |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 7.396.20 | 13.72 | -54.79% (-7.52) | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 8.966.39 | 5.26 | 21.43% (+1.13) | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 12.5210.90 | -5.64 | 293.33% (+16.54) | |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 11.16-0.94 | 11.07 | -108.49% (-12.01) | |
| May 01, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 12.5313.72 | 10.39 | 32.01% (+3.33) | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 12.185.26 | 22.21 | -76.31% (-16.95) | |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 13.76-5.64 | 17.18 | -132.82% (-22.81) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
