Republic Services (RSGA) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:RSGA Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 36.46
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 36.21
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 0.24
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 35.70
MX:RSGA Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 85.67B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 83.05B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 2.63B
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +8.24%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/29/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Thursday, October 29, 2026
Republic Services's next earnings date is estimated for February 23, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
No slide deck is available for this earnings event.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. Republic Services delivered solid revenue, EBITDA, earnings, free cash flow, pricing, customer retention, Environmental Solutions growth, and volume improvement in its small and large container businesses. It also raised 2026 guidance and highlighted progress in acquisitions, digital initiatives, sustainability, and electric fleet deployment. The main challenges were residential volume declines, elevated diesel and health care costs, prior-year landfill event comparisons, higher landfill operating costs, and continued weakness in housing-related activity, but management indicated that several of these pressures were moderating or already reflected in guidance.
For 2026, revenue is now expected to be in the range of $17.425 billion to $17.475 billion, adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $5.5 billion (sic) [ $5.550 billion ] to $5.575 billion, and adjusted free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $2.565 billion to $2.585 billion; Republic expects to finish 2026 with at least $1.2 billion in acquisition investments, an equivalent tax impact of approximately 24% for the full year, more than 300 EV trucks, and 2 additional RNG projects by year-end, while Environmental Solutions is expected to deliver positive revenue growth through the rest of the year and into 2027. For 2027, the long-term growth algorithm calls for consistently delivering mid-single-digit revenue growth while growing EBITDA, EPS and free cash flow even faster than revenue, driving 30 to 50 basis points of annual EBITDA margin expansion; recycling and waste will tip to positive growth in 2027 across the industry, Republic will try to match that or do a little better, Environmental Solutions will be on a nice growth trajectory, and residential volume is expected to land at roughly 2% lower.
- Strong Third-Quarter Financial PerformanceRepublic Services reported third-quarter revenue growth of 8.2%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 4.8%, adjusted earnings per share of $1.94, and year-to-date adjusted free cash flow of $2.28 billion.
- Disciplined Pricing and Fuel RecoveryCore price on related revenue was 6.3%, including open market pricing of 7.6% and restricted pricing of 4.1%. Pricing components were 8% for small container, 7% for large container, and 5.8% for residential. Combined with higher fuel recovery fees, the price increase was over 8%, while average yield on related revenue was 3.5% and continued to exceed internal cost inflation.
- Improving Commercial Volume TrendsSmall container and large container volumes each increased 50 basis points. This was the first time in more than three years that both businesses generated positive volume growth at the same time. Small container growth was driven by net new business and increased service levels, while large container growth was primarily due to increased service levels.
- Environmental Solutions Growth and Margin ExpansionEnvironmental Solutions revenue increased 21% year over year, contributing 2.1% to total company revenue growth. Revenue increased $96 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.4%, representing 440 basis points of expansion versus the prior year. Excluding several large emergency response jobs, revenue growth was approximately 9%, with broad-based increases across hazardous waste landfills, E&P volumes, TSDFs, and field and industrial services.
- Positive Environmental Solutions Demand OutlookManagement said demand remains strong in Environmental Solutions and expects positive revenue growth to continue through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. The company also said its sales pipeline is building and that it is seeing a broad-based improvement in the industrial economy.
- Recycling Commodity ImprovementRecycling commodity prices increased to $142 per ton in the third quarter from $126 per ton in the prior year. Recycling processing and commodity sales increased $15 million, driven by higher Polymer Center volumes and recycled commodity prices.
- Effective Cost Management and Company Margin ResilienceTotal company adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.8%. Excluding the effects of net fuel, prior-year landfill event volumes, and elevated health care costs, the rest of the business expanded margin by 50 basis points, in line with expectations.
- High Customer Retention and Service LoyaltyCustomer retention remained high at more than 94%. Management said customers value the quality and breadth of the company's services, supporting continued loyalty and organic growth.
- AI and Digital Technology DeploymentAI-enabled pricing technology is now deployed across the business to provide enhanced insights for pricing decisions. The company is also piloting an AI-enhanced routing platform, with full-scale deployment expected to begin early next year. Digital tools are being applied to 11 million annual inbound calls, and management believes that over time more than half can be eliminated or handled through a lower-cost channel.
- Digital EBITDA OpportunityManagement said pricing benefits are already visible, customer-service benefits should begin contributing more next year, and most routing benefits will be realized toward the back end of next year and in 2028. The company remains on track for a $100 million run-rate EBITDA benefit by the end of 2028.
- Sustainability Investment ProgressConstruction of the third Polymer Center in Allentown, Pennsylvania, remains on track for commissioning early next year. The company expects to complete two additional renewable natural gas projects by year-end, bringing total project additions for the year to four.
- Expansion of Electric Collection FleetRepublic launched Florida's first fully electric residential recycling and waste collection fleet in Coconut Creek. It ended the quarter with more than 280 electric collection vehicles in operation and remains on track to finish the year with more than 300 EV trucks.
- Employee Engagement and RecognitionEmployee engagement remained high and turnover was at a record low. Republic was named one of 3BL's 100 Best Corporate Citizens and earned Great Place to Work certification for the 10th consecutive year.
- Acquisition Activity and PipelineThe company invested $1.1 billion in value-creating acquisitions year to date and expects to finish 2026 with at least $1.2 billion of acquisition investments. The pipeline remains active across recycling and waste and Environmental Solutions, with approximately 25 acquisitions expected this year, primarily small tuck-ins.
- Shareholder Returns and LiquidityRepublic returned $1.43 billion to shareholders year to date, including $884 million of share repurchases and $577 million of dividends. Total liquidity was $2.3 billion, and the company ended the quarter with an approximately 2.6x leverage ratio.
- Raised 2026 Financial GuidanceUpdated 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $17.425 billion to $17.475 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $5.550 billion to $5.575 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of $2.565 billion to $2.585 billion. Compared with the prior guidance, revenue increased by approximately $200 million, including about $150 million from fuel fees and $50 million from Environmental Solutions, while adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately $25 million at the midpoint.
- Long-Term Growth Algorithm MaintainedManagement said its long-term growth algorithm remains intact, calling for consistently delivering mid-single-digit revenue growth while growing EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow faster than revenue. The framework is designed to produce 30 to 50 basis points of annual EBITDA margin expansion.
- Potential Organic Material Diversion OpportunityThe company is pursuing projects involving organic material, which management said represents 20% to 25% of landfill contents. Management said this is not a near-term one- to two-year opportunity but could become an interesting and meaningful revenue stream over three to five years.
MX:RSGA Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 33.39- | 33.07 | ― | ― |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 36.2136.46 | 35.7 | 2.11% (+0.75) | |
| Aug 06, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 34.0934.77 | 33.26 | 4.52% (+1.50) | |
| May 07, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 30.7631.95 | 29.69 | 7.59% (+2.26) | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 30.5233.07 | 29.69 | 11.39% (+3.38) | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 34.3935.70 | 34.01 | 4.97% (+1.69) | |
| Jul 29, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 33.1933.26 | 30.26 | 9.94% (+3.01) | |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 28.7529.69 | 27.25 | 8.97% (+2.44) | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 26.2529.69 | 26.5 | 12.06% (+3.19) | |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 30.3134.01 | 28.94 | 17.53% (+5.07) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
