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Blue Owl Capital (OWL) AI Stock Analysis

MX:OWL

Blue Owl Capital

(BMV:OWL)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
AUM and Fundraising GrowthStrong fundraising and AUM growth expand the base on which Blue Owl earns recurring management fees. Broad institutional participation and multiple strategies support scale, while continued capital formation can compound fee revenue and strengthen the firm’s market position over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Modest Net ProfitabilityAlthough profitability has improved, the modest net margin and recent history of losses indicate that earnings power is not yet fully mature or consistently high. This can limit the conversion of strong revenue and cash generation into durable bottom-line returns over the medium term.

Blue Owl Capital (OWL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%MX:OWL-26.83%SPY+13.13%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
MXN 16.15B
Dividend Yield
5.77%
Average Volume (3M)
112
Price to Earnings (P/E)
74.9
Beta (1Y)
0.14
Revenue Growth
-0.53%
EPS Growth
51.26%
Country
Mexico
Employees
1,365
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Asset Management

Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Owl Capital Inc., an asset management firm based in New York City, leverages a robust and permanent capital base to deliver a comprehensive suite of financial solutions. It serves a diverse clientele, including mid-sized businesses, leading alte...

Blue Owl Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-1.87%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights, with double-digit FRE, DE, management fee, and AUM growth; record institutional fundraising; robust investment performance; strong portfolio health; improving wealth-channel indicators; substantial deployment pipelines; and confidence in exceeding 2026 guidance and accelerating growth into 2027. The main challenges were a changed rate outlook, modestly negative net direct-lending deployment, lower expected fourth-quarter transaction activity, ongoing wealth-channel recovery, and market uncertainty around real estate and digital infrastructure.

Positive Updates

Strong FRE and DE Growth
Third-quarter fee-related earnings were $0.27 per share and distributable earnings were $0.24 per share. FRE grew 15% and DE grew 14% over the last 12 months, while management fees grew 11% excluding management fee offsets.

Negative Updates

Material Shift in Interest-Rate Expectations
The market began 2026 anticipating two or more additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, but after one rate hike was announced in September, additional hikes were anticipated over the next six months. Management also referred to clouds on the horizon, uncertainties, and a tougher macroeconomic backdrop.

Company Guidance

Blue Owl said it remains confident in its ability to beat $1.02 of FRE per share and $0.89 of DE per share for the full year 2026, expects to over-earn its dividend again in the fourth quarter and continue this through the year 2027 and forward, and expects management fee growth in 2027 to be higher than in 2026; stock-based comp other is expected to be approximately $365 million for 2026, total stock-based compensation in 2027 is expected to be lower than 2026, and stock-based comp other is expected to grow slower than revenue growth in 2027. The company expects a modest spike in fourth-quarter margins, modest margin expansion in 2027, and said 2027 revenue, FRE per share, and DE per share are expected to see acceleration; management fee offsets in credit are expected to go to zero in 2027, representing $20 million of offsets in 2026. Fourth-quarter transaction fees are expected to be a little quieter and return to Q1 and Q2 levels, while the direction of travel in 2027 is expected to be up; the company expects $2 billion-$2.5 billion of capital calls across two net lease products by the end of 1Q, bringing Fund VI fully deployed and the current vintage to approaching 25% drawn and deployed. BODI IV is expected to have an 18-24 month fundraise, likely through mid-2028, with a $10 billion overall fundraise goal; healthcare royalties and life sciences credit are focused on raising about $1 billion by the end of this year, and credit secondaries are expected to have a first close in the first half of 2027.

Blue Owl Capital Risk Analysis

Blue Owl Capital disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Owl Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

MX:OWL against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
APOAPO74Outperform$68.41B25.078.58%1.85%39.52%-48.06%
BXBX73Outperform$147.36B26.1640.77%4.27%8.78%28.70%
KKRKKR71Outperform$84.73B28.0910.32%0.81%31.83%48.98%
ARESARES68Neutral$42.33B91.5310.34%4.03%6.81%-45.32%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
CGCG51Neutral$14.32B39.686.07%3.48%-44.06%-71.02%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%MX:OWLAPOKKRBXCGARESDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
MX:OWL and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MX:OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc210.00-77.02-26.83%
APOApollo Global115.84-12.55-9.77%
KKRKohlberg Kravis Roberts94.39-23.05-19.63%
BXBlackstone Group L.P.118.51-19.99-14.43%
CGThe Carlyle Group Lp40.18-9.59-19.26%
ARESAres Management Lp128.15-18.78-12.78%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.