Marsh & McLennan Companies (MRSH) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management continues to expect underlying revenue growth in 2026 “similar to last year” and “similar to the levels we generated in 2025,” along with “another year of margin expansion and solid adjusted EPS growth”; management consulting is “on pace for high single digit growth” for the full year, implying a “roughly flat top line in Q4,” while fourth-quarter fiduciary interest income is expected to be “approximately $94 million,” FX to have an “immaterial effect on earnings,” adjusted corporate expense to be “approximately $80 million,” interest expense to be $255 million, and the adjusted effective tax rate to be “around 25% for 2026”; Thrive is expected to generate $600 million in savings, with the “vast majority” of actions taken by the end of 2028, savings realized “fairly evenly over the 3 years of the program,” and approximately $750 million of associated costs; the company continues to expect to deploy approximately $5.5 billion of capital in 2026 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases, with the ultimate level of share repurchase dependent on how the M&A pipeline develops, and expects current reinsurance market conditions to persist through the January 1 renewal cycle.