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Gerdau SA (GGBN) AI Stock Analysis

MX:GGBN

Gerdau SA

(BMV:GGBN)

Rating:―N/A
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Positive Factors
North America Competitive StrengthNorth America is a durable earnings anchor, combining high margins with resilient demand across renewable energy, data centers and infrastructure. Its strong backlog and mills operating near capacity support sustained utilization, helping offset weaker conditions in other regions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Brazil Import and Oversupply PressurePersistent imports and excess domestic steel supply can restrain realized prices, volumes and mill utilization in Brazil. Because management says profitability remains below an adequate level, this pressure may continue weighing on the Brazilian segment until trade defenses or market demand improve.

Gerdau SA (GGBN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%MX:GGBN+48.52%SPY+13.13%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
MXN 9.17B
Dividend Yield
2.90%
Average Volume (3M)
20.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
15.6
Beta (1Y)
0.48
Revenue Growth
-1.10%
EPS Growth
-9.06%
Country
Mexico
Employees
30,000
Sector
Basic Materials
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Steel

Gerdau SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coil...

Gerdau SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 25, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:1.19%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive, driven by record-high or multi-year-high margins, strong North American demand, substantial free cash flow, shareholder returns, low leverage, expanded liquidity, and positive credit-rating momentum. The main challenges were continued import and oversupply pressure in Brazil, weak South American performance, seasonal and project-ramp-up headwinds, and risks related to trade agreements and future North American demand. Management nevertheless emphasized ongoing operational improvements, selective investment, and a plan to improve Brazilian profitability.

Positive Updates

Strong North America Operating Performance
North America delivered an EBITDA margin of 27.7%, described as the highest in 4 years, supported by resilient demand in key markets and very strong operating performance at the region's facilities.

Negative Updates

Brazilian Market Remains Under Import and Oversupply Pressure
Brazil continues to face pressure from steel imports and an oversupply of steel in the local market. Management also reported a slowdown in domestic demand due to typical year-end seasonality and other factors.

Company Guidance

Gerdau expects an important portion of the Miguel Burnier benefit to be captured throughout 2027, but not the full benefit, with the benefit in 2027 probably very close to “something around BRL 400 million”; the project is the “big lever” and “main driver” for the Brazil segment in 2027. Midlothian and its additions of productive capacity are expected to be “fully noticed throughout 2027,” “considering that we do not have any setbacks.” For 2026, CapEx disbursement is now “closer to BRL 4 billion rather than BRL 4.5 billion or BRL 4.7 billion,” while a “level close to $4.5 billion” was described as “a reasonable number for the coming years”; the company has not updated guidance and sees “an upside risk thinking about free cash flow generation.” In North America, steel products guidance is for “margin stability” in the fourth quarter, and the current level of margins and results “can be maintained.” South America’s results are expected to remain “very close to the results we have in the Peruvian operation,” which “oscillates mid-teens, low teens,” or “something close to 15% on a recurring basis.”

Gerdau SA Risk Analysis

Gerdau SA disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gerdau SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk
1.Outbreaks of disease and health epidemics could have a negative impact on our business revenues and results of operations.Q4, 2019

Gerdau SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

MX:GGBN against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
NUENUE77Outperform$62.13B17.4116.47%0.82%21.79%121.03%
STLDSTLD76Outperform$35.67B18.4320.97%0.83%26.00%79.81%
TXTX73Outperform$10.36B14.585.77%4.17%-0.65%18.90%
CMCCMC72Outperform$7.04B10.8214.62%1.22%20.46%658.36%
Sector *61Neutral$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
SIDSID43Neutral$941.07M-2.14-18.55%―9.29%-26.44%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%MX:GGBNCMCSIDNUESTLDTXDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
MX:GGBN and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MX:GGBNGerdau89.1529.1248.52%
CMCCommercial Metals63.988.1314.57%
SIDCompanhia Siderúrgica Nacional0.71-0.92-56.40%
NUENucor273.87131.2592.03%
STLDSteel Dynamics250.80100.7967.19%
TXTernium52.7719.1356.86%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.