Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB de CV (GFNORTEO) Q2 2026 Earnings Report

The call emphasized multiple operational and financial strengths: revenue and NII expansion, margin outperformance versus guidance (bank NIM 6.9%), robust fee growth, solid loan growth led by consumer portfolios, improving funding mix and strong capital actions (USD 1.35bn AT1 and expected CET1 uplift). Management acknowledged isolated challenges — notably an insurance earnings decline, one specific commercial exposure driving elevated provisions, near-term credit-card vintage normalization and expense ratio above target — but provided mitigation plans and reiterated full-year guidance. On balance, the positives (outperformance on NII/NIM, strong fee and loan growth, improving funding costs, robust capital position, and asset-quality trend toward guidance) materially outweigh the transitory and contained negatives.

Management reaffirmed full‑year guidance and expects a stronger H2 while forecasting 2026 GDP ≈1.4%, an end‑2026 FX ≈ MXN18.10/USD and the policy rate to remain at 6.5% through 2026–27; on the banking metrics they reported bank NIM at 6.9% (above prior guidance high of 6.8% and expected to hover 6.8–6.9), bank NII +15% YoY, total group revenue +10% YoY, net fees +17% (bank net fees +22%), loan portfolio +8% YoY (≈8.8–9% ex‑FX) with loans‑to‑deposit growth ~13%, non‑interest‑bearing deposits +11% YoY and time deposits +9% YoY, auto loans +26% YoY (guidance 15–20%), credit cards +12% YoY (guidance 14–18%), payroll +14% YoY, mortgages ~5% YoY (guidance 6–7%), commercial 8–11% and corporate 7–9%; asset quality: NPLs 1.5% this quarter, cost of risk down 29 bps sequentially and guided to ~1.8–2% for the year (NPLs could normalize toward ~1.1% ex‑specific case); profitability: Q2 group net income MXN15.6bn (H1 MXN31bn), group ROE 25.7% (Q2) and ROA 2.3%, bank net income MXN12.4bn and bank ROE 32.4% (return on tangible ~36.2%); costs and capital: aim to end the year with single‑digit expense growth (ex‑adjustments ~8.6% Y/Y), cost‑to‑income targeted to 34–35% (currently 36.2%), total capital ~21.5%, CET1 ~12.5% (expected +62 bps in July to ≈13.2%), AT1 issuance $1.35bn (≈5x book) with AT1s targeted at 30–40% of regulatory capital, and management said there should be room for extraordinary dividends or buybacks depending on loan growth and capital generation.