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Geo Group (GEO1) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

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MX:GEO1 Q3 2026 EPS Results

Actual EPS
MXN 7.26
Consensus EPS
MXN 6.46
Beat/Miss
Beat by +MXN 0.80
One Year Ago EPS
MXN 4.65

MX:GEO1 Q3 2026 Revenue Results

Actual Revenue
MXN 14.16B
Expected Revenue
MXN 14.34B
Beat/Miss
Missed by -MXN 182.51M
YoY Revenue Growth
+11.54%

Earnings Announcement Details

Quarter
Q3 2026
Date
11/05/2026
Time
Before Open
Conference Call
Thursday, November 5, 2026
MX:GEO1 Upcoming Earnings

Geo Group's next earnings date is estimated for February 18, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.

Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio

MX:GEO1 Q3 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00

Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck

Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Q3 2026
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2026|% Change Since:0.00%|
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive

The call was strongly positive overall. GEO reported record quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA, substantial year-over-year growth in adjusted net income, significant new ICE contracts, increased guidance, improved liquidity and leverage, and an expanded share repurchase authorization. The main negative items were the year-over-year decline in reported GAAP net income due to the prior-year asset-sale gain, a decline in nonresidential services revenue, higher operating and G&A expenses, ISAP performance below earlier expectations, and uncertainty around potential additional facility sales. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter of 2026, GEO increased GAAP net income guidance to a range of $591 million to $595.5 million, adjusted net income guidance to a range of $46 million to $51 million, or a range of $0.35 to $0.39 per diluted share, on quarterly revenue of $777 million to $827 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $149 million to $154 million; for the full year 2026, it increased GAAP net income guidance to a range of $726.3 million to $730.5 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $568 million to $573 million, while providing full year 2027 adjusted net income guidance of a range of $185 million to $190 million, a range of $1.40 to $1.44 per diluted share, on annual revenues of $2.975 billion to $3.025 billion, based on an effective tax rate of approximately 28% inclusive of known discrete items; total unreimbursed capital expenditures for the full year 2026 are expected to be between $140 million and $150 million, with normal unreimbursed CapEx expected to decline to approximately $100 million in 2027, and 2027 potential upside includes the expected activation of 4 new ICE facilities, transition of the 1.88 thousand-bed Graceville facility and 985-bed Bay facility on 07/01/2027, additional ISAP, secured transportation and skip tracing revenue, and possible sales before the end of 2026 of up to 4 additional facilities.

  • Record Quarterly Financial PerformanceThird quarter 2026 revenue increased 12% year over year to approximately $761.1 million, adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to approximately $145.3 million, and adjusted net income increased 48% to approximately $51.8 million. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA were the highest quarterly levels in GEO's history, while adjusted net income was also an all-time quarterly high under a non-REIT corporate structure.
  • Growth in Owned and Leased Secure ServicesOwned and leased secured services revenue increased approximately $46 million, or 13%, compared with the prior year's third quarter. The increase was driven by the activation of three company-owned facilities under new ICE contracts, partly offset by revenue lost from the sale of the Lawton, Oklahoma facility.
  • Growth in Managed-Only ServicesQuarterly revenue from managed-only contracts increased approximately $31 million, or 19%, year over year, primarily driven by the joint venture agreement for management of the North Florida detention facility and certain transportation revenue increases.
  • New ICE Facility Contracts Add Significant RevenueNew contracts entered into during 2026 for four additional ICE facilities represent approximately $500 million in incremental annual revenue. The contracts cover approximately 4.8 thousand beds and include Bighorn, Rivers, and the two-facility Big Spring complex.
  • Bighorn Contract ActivationGEO entered into a five-year ICE support services contract and a lease agreement for the 1.19 thousand-bed Bighorn facility in Hudson, Colorado. The contract is expected to generate approximately $85 million in annual revenue in the first full year of operations beginning in the first quarter of 2027.
  • Rivers Contract ActivationGEO entered into a five-year ICE support services contract for the 1.32 thousand-bed, GEO-owned Rivers facility in Winton, North Carolina. The contract is expected to generate approximately $80 million in annual revenue in the first full year of operations beginning in the first quarter of 2027.
  • Big Spring Complex ContractThe City of Big Spring entered into a 10-year intergovernmental service agreement with ICE for the 2.33 thousand-bed Big Spring complex, consisting of the 1.4 thousand-bed Flight Line facility and the 925-bed Cedar Hills facility. GEO's support services are expected to generate approximately $200 million in annual revenue in the first full year of operations beginning in the second quarter of 2027.
  • Reimbursement of Facility Reactivation CostsUnder the Bighorn, Rivers, and Big Spring contracts, ICE will reimburse GEO for the capital expenditures needed to reactivate the four facilities and provide funding for start-up expenses during the activation period.
  • Expanded ICE Bed PortfolioFollowing the announced contracts, GEO's total ICE beds under contract will increase to approximately 33 thousand beds at 29 facilities. The current census across active ICE facilities is approximately 24 thousand, representing approximately one-third of the current national ICE population of approximately 73 thousand.
  • Adelanto Staffing ExpansionA contract modification increased staffing levels and expanded the scope of services at the 1.94 thousand-bed Adelanto ICE Processing Center, adding $60 million in incremental annual revenue. The increase is included in the guidance for the remainder of 2026.
  • Northwest ICE Processing Center ContractGEO entered into a new 10-year management contract with expanded support services at the 1.64 thousand-bed GEO-owned Northwest ICE Processing Center in Tacoma, Washington. The modification represents $50 million in incremental annual revenue, bringing expected total annual revenue to approximately $140 million through October 27, 2036.
  • Additional Potential Ten-Year ICE AwardsThe ongoing procurement involving the Aurora, Moshannon Valley, and Broward ICE Processing Centers is also expected to result in new 10-year contract awards.
  • Federal Funding Supporting ICE InitiativesICE was allocated $45 billion for detention under the 1 Big Beautiful Bill, available through September 30, 2029. GEO also stated that ICE received $38.5 billion in baseline appropriations funding and an additional $30 billion for other priorities under the same legislation.
  • Available Facility and Expansion CapacityGEO has approximately 2.9 thousand idle beds available at four company-owned facilities. At full capacity, these beds could generate approximately $170 million in combined incremental revenue. GEO also has expansion capacity of several thousand beds at existing GEO-managed ICE facilities.
  • Secure Transportation Services ExpansionSecure transportation services expanded during the third quarter as a result of new or amended contracts entered into during 2025. ICE Air transportation subcontract services continued to grow, driven by an increase in removable flights, while the Bighorn, Rivers, and Big Spring contracts are expected to generate approximately $28 million in combined additional annual transportation revenue once normalized in 2027.
  • Improved Electronic Monitoring and Supervision PerformanceRevenue and net operating income from electronic monitoring and supervision services increased in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year ago, reversing a multiyear trend of revenue and net operating income declines.
  • ISAP Participant and Service-Mix GrowthThe ISAP participant count increased to approximately 190 thousand from 184 thousand three months earlier. The number using ankle monitors increased to approximately 58 thousand from 17 thousand early in 2025, and approximately 121 thousand participants currently receive case management services. GEO stated that the shift toward more intensive monitoring devices and increased case management more than offset previously reported price reductions.
  • Skip Tracing RevenueGEO generated approximately $3 million in revenue from its skip tracing contract during the third quarter of 2026.
  • Raised 2026 Guidance and Expected Record Fourth QuarterGEO increased its fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted net income guidance to $46 million to $51 million, or $0.35 to $0.39 per diluted share, on revenue of $777 million to $827 million. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased to $149 million to $154 million, which would represent another record-breaking quarter if achieved.
  • Raised Full-Year GuidanceFull-year 2026 adjusted net income guidance was increased to $185 million to $190 million, or $1.40 to $1.44 per diluted share, on revenue of $2.975 billion to $3.025 billion. The midpoint of adjusted net income guidance represents a 56% increase over 2025 adjusted net income. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased to $568 million to $573 million, representing a 23% increase at the midpoint of $570.5 million.
  • Adelanto Asset Sale and Debt ReductionGEO completed the sale of the 1.28 thousand-bed Adelanto West facility, the 660-bed Adelanto East facility, and the 704-bed Desert View Annex to DHS for an aggregate gross sale price of $950 million and net proceeds of approximately $705 million after taxes, transaction fees, and expenses. GEO used proceeds to redeem its $650 million 2029 senior secured notes.
  • Improved Liquidity and LeverageGEO amended its $550 million revolving credit facility, extending maturity to July 2031 and increasing restricted payment capacity. Following the debt redemption, total corporate debt consists of $625 million of 2031 senior unsecured notes. Available liquidity is approximately $600 million, including cash and revolver availability, and net leverage is approximately 1x adjusted EBITDA.
  • Expanded Share Repurchase AuthorizationThe Board increased the share repurchase authorization by $750 million to $1.25 billion, effective through December 31, 2029. GEO stated that it plans to remain active under the program and may allocate future facility-sale proceeds and recurring free cash flow toward share repurchases.
  • Expected 2027 Growth DriversManagement identified several sources of potential 2027 upside, including activation of the four new ICE facilities, reactivation of additional idle facilities, higher populations at active facilities, the expected July 1, 2027 transition of the 1.88 thousand-bed Graceville and 985-bed Bay facilities to managed contracts, additional ISAP volume or technology-mix changes, transportation growth, and higher skip-tracing utilization.
  • Occupancy and Near-Term Capacity ExpansionQuarter-end occupancy was 93%, leaving 7% mathematical utilization upside at existing facilities. Two facilities representing approximately 2.5 thousand beds are expected to open by January 1, with two additional facilities representing approximately 2.3 thousand beds expected to open by March 1.
  • Lower Expected Normal Unreimbursed Capital ExpendituresTotal unreimbursed capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be between $140 million and $150 million, while normal unreimbursed capital expenditures are expected to decline to approximately $100 million in 2027.

MX:GEO1 Earnings History

MX:GEO1 earnings history
Report DateFiscal QuarterForecast / EPSLast Year's EPSEPS YoY ChangePress Release
Feb 18, 20272026 (Q4)7.07-4.65――
Nov 05, 20262026 (Q3)6.467.264.6556.00% (+2.60)
Aug 06, 20262026 (Q2)5.366.884.0968.18% (+2.79)
May 06, 20262026 (Q1)3.815.392.6107.14% (+2.79)
Feb 12, 20262025 (Q4)4.464.652.4292.31% (+2.23)
Nov 06, 20252025 (Q3)4.284.653.9119.05% (+0.74)
Aug 06, 20252025 (Q2)3.074.094.28-4.35% (-0.19)
May 07, 20252025 (Q1)3.522.603.35-22.22% (-0.74)
Feb 27, 20252024 (Q4)4.172.425.39-55.17% (-2.98)
Nov 07, 20242024 (Q3)4.543.913.5310.53% (+0.37)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat Missed