Greenbrier (GBX) Q4 2026 Earnings Report
MX:GBX Q4 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 7.29
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 15.00
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -MXN 7.72
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 23.54
MX:GBX Q4 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 11.02B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 11.31B
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -MXN 285.93M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- -21.96%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q4 2026
- Date
- 10/26/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Monday, October 26, 2026
MX:GBX Upcoming Earnings
Greenbrier's next earnings date is estimated for January 1, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q4 2026 Earnings Call Audio
MX:GBX Q4 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00
Q4 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q4 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call was broadly constructive. Despite results below initial expectations, weak European demand, lower fourth-quarter operating efficiency, trade-related tank car uncertainty and a lower near-term leasing margin, Greenbrier highlighted stronger orders, the first sequential backlog increase since fiscal 2024, 23% lease fleet growth, 98% utilization, strong liquidity, improving rail market indicators and positive fiscal 2027 guidance. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2027, Greenbrier anticipates North American industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 railcars, total revenue between $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion, operating margin ranging from 7% to 7.5%, earnings per share between $2.75 and $3.75, and total capital expenditures, net of proceeds from equipment sales, ranging from $225 million to $275 million, with approximately 70% allocated towards growth of the lease fleet; leasing and fleet management revenue is expected to grow 12% to 15%, manufacturing gross margin is expected to be in the low double digits, aggregate gross margin is expected to be in the 14% to 15% range, and the lease fleet is projected to grow to somewhere between 22,000 cars and 23,000 cars, with deliveries expected to be stronger and back half weighted, and to do a little bit better than 2026 in terms of deliveries.
- Resilient Fiscal 2026 PerformanceGreenbrier delivered 15,400 railcars, generated $2.5 billion in revenue, earned core earnings per share of $2.60 and achieved aggregate gross margin of 13.6%. Compared with fiscal 2022, the company delivered about 4,500 fewer units but produced aggregate gross margin 330 basis points higher, core EBITDA 30% higher and core net earnings 76% higher.
- Improved Commercial Activity and BacklogFourth-quarter orders totaled 3,400 railcars valued at approximately $600 million, the highest order value of the year, with a book-to-bill ratio of nearly 1, the highest since Q3 fiscal 2024. Full-year orders were 12,200 railcars valued at $1.9 billion, while backlog increased to 14,000 railcars valued at $2.1 billion, the first sequential increase since fiscal 2024, with deliveries extending into fiscal 2028.
- Strong Leasing and Fleet Management GrowthThe owned lease fleet grew by roughly 4,000 railcars, or 23%, to approximately 21,000 railcars, while utilization remained at 98%. Renewal rates remained well above expiring rates, and recurring revenue reached $175 million, up from $113 million when the company established its recurring-revenue goal.
- Recurring Revenue Strategy on TrackGreenbrier said it is on track to double recurring revenue within five years, with recurring revenue growing 55% to $175 million in fiscal 2026. The larger lease fleet provides recurring revenue opportunities and makes the company less dependent on new railcar demand.
- Constructive North American Rail Market IndicatorsRail traffic grew across a broad range of commodities, elevated fuel prices improved rail's cost competitiveness relative to trucking, and several Class 1 railroads reported solid volume growth. Intermodal traffic reached record levels and posted double-digit year-over-year growth in recent weeks. Railcars in storage declined for four consecutive months to the lowest level in over four years.
- Positive Industry Delivery OutlookFTR projects North American deliveries of 23,000 railcars in 2026, growing to 31,400 in 2027, an increase of 37%, driven mostly by replacement demand. Greenbrier expects fiscal 2027 deliveries to be stronger and weighted toward the back half of the year.
- Manufacturing and Cost-Reduction InitiativesThe company adjusted production rates and headcount to match demand while completing new railcar designs for customers. In-sourcing investments continue to lower costs across the North American network, and management expects additional cost reductions as volume grows, along with absorption benefits from higher production.
- Specialty Railcar and Intermodal OpportunitiesGreenbrier designed and produced several new railcar types, with a significant portion of the related production beginning in the back half of fiscal 2027. Management cited good pricing and margins for specialty cars, increased interest in intermodal equipment, and improving pricing discipline as the market recovers.
- Maintenance and Restoration LeadershipProgrammatic railcar restoration work was performed on approximately 2,200 railcars in fiscal 2026, making Greenbrier a clear market leader. Wheel shipments exceeded expectations with strong forward demand, and tighter fleet supply is supporting demand for conversions, tank requalifications, rejacking and routine maintenance.
- Strong Brazil PerformanceGreenbrier-Maxion delivered more than 400 railcars in Brazil during the quarter, including export orders supported by favorable product mix and continued manufacturing efficiency.
- Solid Liquidity and Debt ProfileGreenbrier ended fiscal 2026 with total liquidity of $962 million, consisting of $235 million in cash and $727 million in available borrowing capacity. There are no significant debt maturities until 2028, approximately 85% of debt was fixed, and the weighted average interest rate was just over 4%.
- Shareholder Returns MaintainedThe company raised its quarterly dividend by 6% during the year, repurchased $13 million of shares, and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share, marking its 50th consecutive quarterly dividend.
- Fiscal 2027 Financial GuidanceGreenbrier expects North American industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 railcars, total revenue of $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion, operating margin of 7% to 7.5%, and earnings per share of $2.75 to $3.75. Leasing and fleet management revenue is expected to grow 12% to 15%, with aggregate gross margin projected at 14% to 15%.
- Continued Lease Fleet Expansion PlannedFiscal 2027 capital expenditures, net of proceeds from equipment sales, are projected at $225 million to $275 million, with approximately 70% allocated toward lease fleet growth. Management expects the owned lease fleet to grow to between 22,000 and 23,000 railcars.
- Leadership Continuity and Strategic PrioritiesIncoming CEO Brian Comstock said the company will continue the strategy established with Lorie Leeson, with increased focus on business-unit performance, cost and overhead structures, and accelerated leasing growth. Manny Pearlman is also joining the Board with investment management, capital markets and financial expertise.
MX:GBX Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01, 2027 | 2027 (Q1) | 10.18- | 21.3 | ― | ― |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 2026 (Q4) | 15.007.29 | 23.54 | -69.05% (-16.25) | |
| Jul 01, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 11.2111.21 | 34.75 | -67.74% (-23.54) | |
| Apr 07, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 15.388.78 | 31.58 | -72.19% (-22.79) | |
| Jan 08, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 14.7621.30 | 32.14 | -33.72% (-10.84) | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2025 (Q4) | 22.0523.54 | 35.87 | -34.38% (-12.33) | |
| Jul 01, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 18.4034.75 | 19.8 | 75.47% (+14.95) | |
| Apr 07, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 33.2631.58 | 19.24 | 64.08% (+12.33) | |
| Jan 08, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 21.5832.14 | 17.94 | 79.17% (+14.20) | |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2024 (Q4) | 26.0635.87 | 17.19 | 108.70% (+18.68) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat Missed
