Dow Inc (DOW1) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was predominantly positive. Dow reported strong third-quarter sales and EBITDA growth, substantial segment-level earnings improvement, strong free cash flow, working-capital release, debt reduction, and meaningful progress on self-help and transformation initiatives. Management also provided a roughly flat sequential fourth-quarter outlook with potential upside from polyethylene pricing. These positives were tempered by volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, European energy and logistics challenges, construction-related demand weakness, industry overcapacity, and operational constraints in the Middle East.

For the fourth quarter, Dow expects EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion, with global polyethylene integrated margins improving by approximately 2 cents per pound compared to the third quarter, more than $100 million of lower sequential turnaround spending, and approximately $100 million of sequential uplift from self help actions, supporting a roughly flat sequential outlook; the typical seasonal slowdown in building and construction activity is expected to reduce earnings in the period for the 2 other segments. The guide contemplates ethane in the mid to high 20s per gallon range, while achieving the 7 cents per pound in October and the 5 cents in November could provide an upside to the fourth quarter guide, potentially in the range of $200 million, depending on feedstock costs. Dow expects approximately $700 million in growth and productivity improvements this year, approximately $1.3 billion in net benefits this year and $1.3 billion in 2027, including $1.2 billion of incremental to outperform uplift in 2027 and about another $100 million of incremental gains from asset actions, with cash conversion expected to be in the range of anywhere from, let's say, 70% to 80% next year.