Chipotle (CMG) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:CMG Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 5.07
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 5.45
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -MXN 0.38
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 5.45
MX:CMG Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 61.87B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 61.76B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 112.16M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +9.65%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/28/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Chipotle's next earnings date is estimated for February 9, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly optimistic, supported by 9.6% revenue growth, positive transactions, strong Rewards engagement, improving restaurant execution, successful menu innovation, continued restaurant development and strong international demand. However, the company faces meaningful industry and consumer headwinds, softer October trends, lower restaurant-level margins, higher labor and operating costs, and continued dependence on transaction growth to offset inflation and new-restaurant investments.
Management expects low single-digit comps for 2026, Q4 comps around a plus 2%, and a potential exit rate on the year of 3% to 4%; Q4 pricing is expected to increase to about 3%, bringing total pricing in 2026 to around 2%, while 2027 overall inflation is anticipated to remain in the low to mid-single-digit range. Q4 cost of sales is expected to be around 30.5%, labor costs around 26%, marketing costs in the high 3% range, other operating costs around 16%, margins just under 22%, G&A around $189 million on a non-GAAP basis, depreciation in the low 3% range, and the fiscal 2026 underlying effective tax rate in the 24% to 26% range. Management expects approximately 340 to 360 company-owned restaurants in the U.S. and Canada and around 15 to 25 restaurants outside the U.S. and Canada in 2027, HEEP to reach approximately 2,000 restaurants by year-end and be near complete by the end of 2027, catering to begin rolling out in Q1 of 2027, marketing for 2027 to be in the low 3% range or around 3%, and about 1 point of trans to offset new restaurant openings, with additional traffic growth flowing through at somewhere around 40%; the 2026 margin is expected to be in the mid-23% range and the 2027 baseline, assuming pricing offsets inflation and at least a point of trans offsets NROs, is a mid-24% margin.
- Revenue Growth and Positive TransactionsThird-quarter sales grew 9.6% to $3.3 billion, including a 2.1% comparable restaurant sales increase and a 0.8% positive transaction comp. Management stated that transactions were positive in all three quarters of 2026.
- Digital Sales and Rewards ExpansionDigital sales reached $1.3 billion, representing 38.8% of total sales versus 36.7% in the prior year. Active Rewards membership exceeded 24 million guests, loyalty share of sales reached a record 33%, 6.8 million members opted into Summer of Extras, members earned 25 million badges and completed approximately 600,000 challenges.
- High-Efficiency Equipment Package ProgressThe High-Efficiency Equipment Package was installed in more than 1,700 restaurants, with a goal of approximately 2,000 restaurants by year-end. Restaurants with the equipment are delivering hundreds of basis points of comparable sales uplift, stronger guest satisfaction and taste-of-food scores, and more than two additional entrees during the peak 15-minute period. Management said the comparable sales lift has sustained in the couple hundred basis point range where the equipment has been in place long enough.
- Improved Food Quality and Restaurant ExecutionTaste-of-food scores increased nearly 1 point year-over-year. Management reported progress in restaurant execution, hospitality, throughput, Linebacker and Expo deployment, and general manager and apprentice deployment, while continuing to focus on consistent execution across all four throughput pillars.
- AI and Restaurant Technology RolloutsThe AI-enabled cook-to-needs tool entered pilot in the third quarter and was rolled out to more than 500 restaurants, with a planned national rollout early next year. Chipotle is also developing Ava Cado, an in-restaurant AI assistant, and rolling out its proprietary Chipotle Kitchen digital makeline interface to several hundred restaurants by year-end, with systemwide scaling planned throughout 2027.
- Strong Menu Innovation ResultsThe August 31 launch of Pollo Asado and Chili Lime Chips generated positive guest responses. Pollo Asado drove incremental transactions and achieved an attachment rate in the low 20% range, significantly higher than the prior launch, while Chili Lime Chips drove incremental growth in overall chip incidents. Cilantro Lime Sauce maintained a strong attachment rate and outperformed the benchmark set by prior sauce innovation.
- Smoked Brisket Launch and 2027 Innovation PipelineManagement expects the returning Smoked Brisket limited-time offer to support momentum in the fourth quarter and described the new recipe as improved. The 2027 calendar is expected to include approximately four center-of-the-plate limited-time offers, along with continued innovation in sides, dips and beverages. Management said the innovation pipeline remains strong across proteins, sides and beverages.
- Brand Engagement and Customer ReachThe 100 Creators campaign, Cardi B and the Bardi Bowl, the Salish Matter Kid's Meal, the PGA 2K25 integration and other culturally relevant activations supported brand engagement. Brand value scores and overall brand health remained strong in the third quarter, with sequential gains in amount and quality of food for the money. Wallet share was stable or improving across the quarter, with broad strength across income and age cohorts.
- Family Meal GrowthFamily Meal sales increased by more than 30% following the launch of a new marketing campaign. Catering and Chipotle Family Meals together represented approximately 3% of sales and were described as highly incremental and operationally efficient.
- Catering Expansion OpportunityChipotle plans to begin a national catering rollout in the first quarter of 2027 after pilots provided operational, marketing and technology insights. Group occasions currently represent 2% to 3% of sales, and management expects to target 1 or 2 points of year-over-year growth over the next couple of years while avoiding disruption to the core business.
- Talent and Retention ProgressGeneral manager and crew turnover declined year-over-year. Three-quarters of restaurants currently have apprentices, and the company plans to expand coverage incrementally in 2027. Nearly 25,000 team members have enrolled in the Guild education program and more than 14,000 have completed one of its programs.
- Restaurant Development and Chipotlane MilestonesChipotle opened 83 new restaurants in the U.S. and Canada during the quarter, including 53 Chipotlanes, and reached its 1,500th Chipotlane. The company expects to open approximately 350 restaurants in 2026 and approximately 340 to 360 company-owned restaurants in the U.S. and Canada in 2027.
- International ExpansionThe company entered Mexico, Saudi Arabia and South Korea during the quarter, expanding Chipotle's presence to 11 countries. It opened 8 restaurants outside the U.S. and Canada during 2026 and expects to open approximately 15 to 25 partner-operated restaurants outside those markets in 2027. Opening volumes exceeded initial expectations in Mexico, set another record in Saudi Arabia, and South Korea experienced multi-block lines for weeks after its first opening.
- Strong European EconomicsCompany-operated restaurants in Europe delivered comparable sales growth in the low double-digit range in the third quarter, up from the high single-digit range in the second quarter. Management said restaurant margins and cash-on-cash returns in Central London and Frankfurt remain attractive.
- Balance Sheet and Capital ReturnChipotle ended the quarter with $1 billion in cash, restricted cash and investments and no debt. Year-to-date share repurchases totaled $1.4 billion at an average price of $34.32, with approximately $1.6 billion remaining under authorization.
- Cost of Sales ImprovementThird-quarter cost of sales was 29.5%, approximately 50 basis points lower than last year. Menu pricing and tariff relief more than offset inflation, which was primarily driven by beef and freight.
- Fourth-Quarter and 2026 Sales OutlookManagement expects fourth-quarter comparable sales of approximately positive 2% and an exit rate of 3% to 4%, supported by Smoked Brisket and planned marketing initiatives. Management reaffirmed confidence in delivering low single-digit comparable sales growth for 2026.
- Long-Term Margin FrameworkManagement said the unit economic model remains intact and expects margins to expand with additional transaction growth. It described a mid-23% 2026 margin as including approximately 100 basis points of price-inflation dislocation, with a mid-24% baseline for 2027 assuming pricing offsets inflation and at least one point of transaction growth offsets new-restaurant openings.
MX:CMG Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 09, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 4.62- | 4.7 | ― | ― |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 5.455.07 | 5.45 | -6.90% (-0.38) | |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 5.996.20 | 6.2 | 0.00% (+0.00) | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 4.474.51 | 5.45 | -17.24% (-0.94) | |
| Feb 03, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 4.474.70 | 4.7 | 0.00% (+0.00) | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 5.375.45 | 5.07 | 7.41% (+0.38) | |
| Jul 23, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 6.126.20 | 6.39 | -2.94% (-0.19) | |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 5.205.45 | 5.02 | 8.61% (+0.43) | |
| Feb 04, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 4.604.70 | 3.89 | 20.77% (+0.81) | |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 4.705.07 | 4.26 | 18.94% (+0.81) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.