Celsius Holdings (CELH) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management guided that the third quarter should look largely like Q2 as the CELSIUS SKU rationalization and inventory rebalancing continue, with the company exiting 2026 back into growth; Q2 revenue was $818 million, CELSIUS net sales were down ~12% year‑over‑year (scanner dollars down ~2%), dollars per point of distribution rose ~16% from Q1 to Q2 on ~7% fewer points, and Fizz‑Free dollar sales in tracked channels grew >20% Q2 vs Q1. Brand-level results included Alani Nu net sales of ≈$364 million (≈+21% Y/Y; tracked channel dollar growth ≈56%; all‑in gross revenue ex‑Canada/non‑RTD ≈39% vs net ≈21%) and Rockstar net sales of ≈$66 million; depletions versus orders explained roughly half the gap between scanner and reported results. Profitability guidance: gross margin was ~48% in Q2 (also Q1) and management expects Q3 to remain in the high‑40s with upside if diesel or aluminum costs moderate; adjusted EBITDA was $184 million (~22.5% of revenue) in Q2 ($380M for H1, ≈23.7% of revenue) and adjusted SG&A was 28.6% of revenue (GAAP SG&A $238M, 29% of revenue). Capital allocation and ops metrics: the company repurchased ≈$100M in Q2 (≈$124M H1) against a $300M authorization, reduced its interest rate by 25 bps with potential for another 25 bps, expects its second North Carolina manufacturing line to begin producing in H2 with full benefit in 2027, and targets international markets to represent more than 15% of revenue over the next five years.