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Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRKN) AI Stock Analysis

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MX:BIRKN

Birkenstock Holding plc

(BMV:BIRKN)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Strong ProfitabilityBirkenstock’s high gross and operating margins indicate substantial brand strength and pricing power in footwear. This profitability provides resources to fund stores, production capacity, and product development while offering resilience as the company expands across channels and regions.
Negative Factors
Growth DecelerationThe sharp slowdown in trailing revenue growth shows that recent momentum has moderated from earlier levels, even though management’s latest guidance is stronger. If this persists, slower scale benefits could limit operating leverage and make continued expansion more dependent on new products and markets.

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRKN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%MX:BIRKN-25.00%SPY+10.92%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
MXN 6.89B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
168
Price to Earnings (P/E)
18.1
Beta (1Y)
-0.54
Revenue Growth
8.38%
EPS Growth
8.09%
Country
Mexico
Employees
6,800
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Apparel - Footwear & Accessories

Birkenstock Holding plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Birkenstock Holding plc specializes in the creation and distribution of various foot-related products. While renowned for its extensive collection of footwear, which includes sandals, shoes, and closed-toe designs, the company also expands its offeri...

Birkenstock Holding plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-14.00%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 29, 2024
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a strong operational quarter with revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, accelerated DTC and retail expansion, notable strength in APAC and China, successful product-driven ASP improvement, and proactive capital allocation (share repurchase and debt refinancing). The main negatives were largely external and manageable: FX and tariff headwinds, one-time financing/ASR expenses that elevated the tax rate and temporarily increased leverage, higher logistics costs related to Middle East conflicts, and a higher inventory-to-sales ratio influenced by tariffs/FX and the Australia acquisition timing. Management reiterated confidence, raised full-year revenue and EBITDA targets, and provided mitigation context for reported margin pressures.

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance
Q3 revenue EUR 720 million, up 13% reported and 15% in constant currency; company raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 15% in constant currency (high end of prior 13%-15% range).

Negative Updates

FX Headwinds
Currency depreciation (USD, CAD, INR, JPY) created a ~180 bps headwind to Q3 revenue growth and full-year FX drag expected ~350 bps; FX reduced adjusted EBITDA by EUR 8 million in Q3 and imposed ~130 bps pressure on adjusted gross margin.

Company Guidance

Management raised fiscal 2026 guidance, now targeting 15% revenue growth in constant currency (top of prior 13–15% range) and adjusted EBITDA of at least €710m; Q4 revenue is expected to remain within the 13–15% annual range with FX and tariffs relatively neutral in Q4 (blended Q4 tariff ~just over 15%), while the full‑year FX drag is ~350 bps. Full‑year adjusted gross margin is guided to 57.0–57.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin to 30.2–30.5% (including ~200 bps headwind from FX and U.S. tariffs); adjusted EPS is expected at €1.90–€2.05 (including ~€0.15–€0.20 of FX pressure) with a 2026 tax rate of 30–31% (recurring rate expected in the high‑20s). CapEx is forecast at €110–130m, net leverage is targeted at ~1.6–1.7x by year‑end (versus 1.8x now; ~1.4x excluding the ASR), and management retains flexibility to deploy up to ~€500m for additional buybacks or refinancing.

Birkenstock Holding plc Risk Analysis

Birkenstock Holding plc disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Birkenstock Holding plc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Birkenstock Holding plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

MX:BIRKN against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
WWWWWW82Outperform$1.78B16.6826.26%1.84%7.16%24.85%
ONONONON80Outperform$11.43B20.7723.26%―24.02%104.91%
DECKDECK78Outperform$11.99B11.8843.56%―6.30%11.78%
CROXCROX76Outperform$7.30B11.8248.76%―0.70%329.45%
SHOOSHOO73Outperform$3.11B17.2918.92%1.98%20.60%208.58%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%100%MX:BIRKNCROXDECKSHOOWWWONONDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
MX:BIRKN and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MX:BIRKNBirkenstock Holding plc627.72-209.28-25.00%
CROXCrocs159.6685.21114.45%
DECKDeckers Outdoor89.795.406.40%
SHOOSteven Madden42.534.4911.80%
WWWWolverine World Wide21.696.0538.72%
ONONOn Holding Ag Class A34.70-6.81-16.41%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.