AGNC Investment (AGNC) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was mixed. AGNC experienced a severely negative third quarter, including a negative 12.7% economic return, a $1.28 per-share comprehensive loss, significant Agency MBS underperformance, and lower net spread income. However, management highlighted attractive current MBS yields and spreads, stronger post-quarter-end tangible book value, substantial liquidity, successful capital formation, improved portfolio characteristics, active duration management, and an expected 18%-20% return opportunity. The near-term outlook remains dependent on stabilization in interest rates and macroeconomic conditions.

Management said expected returns are in the 18%-20% range based on current mortgage pricing, with expected ROE right around 19, maybe a little bit above, using leverage at around mid seven and seven and a half range; the current coupon was 6.5% at the end of the quarter and well above six and a quarter today. The 10-year Treasury’s new range might be something like 4.90-5.40, while management expects fixed income flows to be heavy, including $25 billion in fixed income inflow in the first week of October. Management said daily originations could be down into the $1.5 billion range versus a $3 billion and $3.5 billion range, expects less TBA going forward, and said the GSEs could acquire mortgages at a similar pace to around $12 billion a month, or $35 billion-$36 billion in the first quarter, with the GSEs expected to be active in the fourth quarter; management also expects the Fed to be on hold at this next meeting and then possibly raise again in December.