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Mitsui Fudosan (MTSFY) AI Stock Analysis

MTSFY

Mitsui Fudosan

(Other OTC:MTSFY)

Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:$32.00â–²(5.54% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/17/26

The overall score reflects a fundamentally solid real estate business with strong and improving earnings, attractive ROE, and a large asset base, balanced against elevated leverage and inconsistent cash flow quality. Technical indicators currently show a weak price trend below key moving averages with negative momentum, tempering the otherwise favorable fundamental picture. Valuation appears reasonable with a mid-teens P/E and a moderate dividend yield, offering steady return potential rather than clear deep-value or high-growth pricing.

Positive Factors
Revenue and Margin ExpansionRevenue increased from 2.01T to 2.87T over five annual periods, while net margin and EBITDA margin also improved. This combination indicates scale and operating leverage across the portfolio, supporting durable earnings capacity if the underlying property businesses remain productive.
Negative Factors
Persistent LeveragePersistent leverage and rising total debt increase exposure to refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. This can reduce financial flexibility when property conditions weaken, constrain internally funded investment, and leave earnings more dependent on stable financing access than those of lower-levered peers.

Mitsui Fudosan (MTSFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%MTSFY-2.79%SPY+12.58%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$26.85B
Dividend Yield
2.13%
Average Volume (3M)
60.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
18.8
Beta (1Y)
0.15
Revenue Growth
-12.75%
EPS Growth
-27.38%
Country
US
Employees
27,704
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Real Estate - Diversified

Mitsui Fudosan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating as a prominent real estate firm in Japan, Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. organizes its activities across four primary segments: Leasing, Property Sales, Management, and Other. The Leasing segment focuses on renting out diverse properties, includi...

How the Company Makes Money

Mitsui Fudosan makes money through multiple real-estate-driven revenue streams: 1) Property leasing and operations (recurring income) - The company generates recurring revenue by leasing space in properties it owns or operates, such as office buildin...

Mitsui Fudosan Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2025(Q3-2024)|% Change Since:9.82%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, including record financial performance and upward revisions of forecasts, indicating strong business momentum. However, challenges such as increased interest burden and losses in nonoperating income and property sales to investors present potential headwinds.

Positive Updates

Record Highs in Financial Performance
Achieved new record highs for 9-month third quarter in sales, operating income, ordinary income, and profit attributable to owners of parent. Second consecutive record high for operating income and third consecutive record high for net profit.

Negative Updates

Interest Burden Increase
Interest burden under net interest income and expense increased JPY 17.6 billion year-on-year, primarily due to rising U.S. interest rates.

Company Guidance

In the third quarter earnings call for Mitsui Fudosan, Executive Manager Atsuro Uchida highlighted several key metrics that underscored the company's financial performance and future outlook. The company achieved record highs in sales, operating income, ordinary income, and profit attributable to owners of parent for the nine-month period, with operating income reaching JPY 245.2 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. Ordinary income rose by 7.3% to JPY 199.7 billion, while profit attributable to owners of parent surged by 13.1% to JPY 166.4 billion. The full year forecast for ordinary income was revised upwards by JPY 10 billion to JPY 265 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent was also increased by JPY 5 billion to JPY 220 billion, setting a new record high. In response to these strong results, the company raised its full year dividend per share guidance to JPY 72, up from the previously announced JPY 70, reflecting their confidence in sustained growth. Additionally, the Leasing segment reported significant gains with operating revenues of JPY 606.1 billion, driven by key projects like 50 Hudson Yards in New York, while the Property Sales segment saw mixed results with a decline in operating revenue but stable contract rates. The Management and Facility Operations segments also showed positive momentum, with the latter benefiting from increased ADRs and spectator numbers at Tokyo Dome. Overall, Mitsui Fudosan demonstrated robust financial health and strategic adjustments to capitalize on market conditions.

Mitsui Fudosan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and accelerating revenue and net income growth with solid ~10% net margin and improving ROE near 9% support a high score, but are partially offset by high, sector-typical leverage and volatile, sometimes weak cash generation and cash conversion.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

55Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.80T2.63T2.87T2.38T2.27T2.10T
Gross Profit692.16B635.13B555.40B593.13B526.68B450.44B
EBITDA574.71B513.25B662.68B473.42B476.69B356.48B
Net Income308.01B248.80B295.49B224.65B197.00B176.99B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.75T9.86T10.15T9.49T8.84T8.21T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments234.28B169.68B88.41B189.81B144.26B156.23B
Total Debt4.52T4.42T4.65T4.43T4.05T3.67T
Total Liabilities6.43T6.59T6.75T6.25T5.81T5.29T
Stockholders Equity3.21T3.15T3.29T3.11T2.90T2.80T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0327.77B-96.64B20.86B-65.04B29.90B
Operating Cash Flow0599.25B154.03B241.70B297.71B271.47B
Investing Cash Flow0-321.97B-188.72B-286.99B-422.03B-210.06B
Financing Cash Flow0-269.37B-63.77B59.99B111.45B-139.60B

Mitsui Fudosan Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price30.32

Price Trends

50DMA28.56Positive
100DMA28.42Positive
200DMA31.08Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.55Negative
RSI60.88Neutral
STOCH39.69Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTSFY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.54, above the 50-day MA of 28.56, and below the 200-day MA of 31.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTSFY.

Mitsui Fudosan Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

MTSFY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
VTMXVTMX80Outperform$3.48B6.4816.39%2.29%17.70%7191.37%
IRSIRS79Outperform$1.16B0.9919.95%21.39%4.42%36.02%
JOEJOE70Outperform$3.96B33.0315.84%0.91%11.10%17.69%
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
HHHHHH64Neutral$4.55B15.407.18%―31.83%7.70%
MTSFYMTSFY64Neutral$26.89B18.777.11%2.13%-12.75%-27.38%
VNOVNO61Neutral$7.03B1118.121.14%2.14%1.37%-99.27%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%MTSFYHHHIRSJOEVNOVTMXDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
MTSFY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MTSFYMitsui Fudosan (MTSFY)30.20-0.94-3.02%
HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.77.91-0.15-0.19%
IRSIrsa Inversiones Y Representaciones12.400.736.22%
JOESt. Joe Co68.9010.5818.13%
VNOVornado Realty Trust34.97-0.11-0.32%
VTMXCorporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B. de C.V. ADR36.327.1924.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 17, 2026