Metro Bank (MTRBF) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management reconfirmed guidance, pointing to H1 underlying profit of GBP61m (+34% y/y) and RoTE of 7.5% as the base for a mechanical RoTE uplift of >9ppt to ~16.7%, with targets of >13% in Q4, >15% in 2027 and >18% in 2028. Exit NIM is 3.25% with Q4 treasury repricing worth +15bp (c.3.40% exit) and further asset rotation expected to push NIM above 340bp; GBP1.0bn of 2026 treasury maturities (GBP833m in H2) repricing ~50bp is expected to add ~GBP24m (15bp NIM / 2.7% RoTE). Lending momentum underpins the plan: GBP1.0bn commercial/corporate lent in H1, a GBP1.0bn credit‑approved pipeline (largest ever) with historical conversion of 120–130% implying GBP1.2–1.3bn new lending in H2, supported by GBP6bn deal flow (95% direct). Other drivers cited: underlying revenue H1 GBP301m (+5%), NII +8%, cost-to-income 77% (down 5pp), costs GBP231m (−2% y/y; FY26 broadly flat), loan book GBP9.2bn (+4%), core lines +43% (GBP1.9bn), runoff −34%, core =67% of book, commercial =44% (vs 35% a year ago), specialist mortgages 45% (vs <25%), cost of risk 22bp (vs TTC 40–60bp), deposit cost 98bp with 43% current‑account funding, LCR 270% and L/D 69%, plus a GBP2.6bn hedge notional (avg dur ~3y, yield 3.4%) and low NII sensitivity (low single‑digit £m).