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MAC Copper (MTAL)
NYSE:MTAL
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MAC Copper
(NYSE:MTAL)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(10.57% Upside)
MAC Copper's overall stock score reflects strong operational improvements and positive earnings call highlights, including increased production and cash flow. However, challenges with profitability and valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The substantial revenue growth indicates strong demand and effective market penetration, supporting long-term business expansion and sustainability.
Cash Flow Improvement
Improved cash flow enhances liquidity and financial stability, enabling the company to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt effectively.
Regulatory Approval for Acquisition
Regulatory approval for the acquisition by Harmony Gold could lead to strategic synergies and enhanced market positioning, benefiting long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability issues can hinder reinvestment in the business and affect shareholder returns, posing risks to long-term financial health.
Lower Production Guidance
Lower production guidance may impact revenue and operational efficiency, potentially affecting the company's ability to meet market demand.
Potential Grade Reduction
A shift to lower grade material could increase production costs and reduce profit margins, challenging the company's cost management strategies.
MAC Copper (MTAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees506
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.99
Shares Outstanding82,538,810
10 Day Avg. Volume714,372
30 Day Avg. Volume1,202,544
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)2.23
P/FCF Ratio13.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.40Price Target Upside1.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
MAC Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Descriptionnull
How the Company Makes Moneynull
MAC Copper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong financial and operational performance with significant improvements in production, cash flow, and safety metrics. However, slight concerns were raised about lower production guidance and potential grade reduction in the coming quarters.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Production Increase
Produced just under 10,600 tonnes of copper, a 23% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a record 385 tonnes produced in one day.
Strong Financial Position
USD 196 million of liquidity at the end of June, with USD 102 million in cash, resulting in a net gearing of just over 17%.
Record-Breaking Operating Free Cash Flow
Achieved record quarterly operating free cash flow of about USD 42 million.
Interest Cost Reduction
Reduced interest costs by around USD 14 million annually, with a current floating interest rate just under 7%.
Improved Safety Record
Significant improvement in safety, with no reportable incidents last year and none this year, and a sustained reduction in TRIFR.
Positive Developments in Key Projects
Ventilation and Merrin Mine projects advancing well, with Merrin Mine coming online in Q4 2025.
Negative Updates
Lower Production Guidance
Maintaining guidance of 43,000 to 48,000 tonnes for the year, but expected to be in the bottom half of that range.
Potential Grade Reduction
Expectation of moving into lower grade material towards the middle to back end of the current quarter.
Company Guidance
During the MAC Copper Limited Q2 2025 results call, CEO Mick McMullen and CFO Morne Engelbrecht provided comprehensive guidance, emphasizing the company's strategic trajectory and financial health. The company reported a 23% quarter-on-quarter increase in copper production, achieving just under 10,600 tonnes, with a significant improvement in copper grade to 4.4%. Operating free cash flow reached a record USD 42 million, supported by a reduced C1 cash cost of USD 1.48 per pound, dropping to USD 0.94 per pound in June. MAC Copper maintained its annual production guidance of 43,000 to 48,000 tonnes, despite challenges from a recent transaction with Harmony, which valued the company at USD 12.25 per share in cash. The balance sheet remained robust with USD 102 million in cash, USD 196 million in liquidity, and net gearing reduced to 17%. The company also highlighted progress in key projects, including the ventilation project and Merrin Mine, contributing to a 139% increase in growth capital expenditure. Exploration efforts continue, with promising developments north of the CSA mine. Overall, MAC Copper demonstrated strong operational and financial performance, positioning itself well for future growth.MAC Copper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
MAC Copper has demonstrated strong revenue growth and operational improvements, with a positive EBIT and improved cash flows. However, profitability remains a challenge due to a negative net profit margin, and ongoing losses impact return on equity.Income Statement
MAC Copper has shown significant revenue growth, with a 114.4% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 34.4% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -24.0% due to high expenses, although it has improved from -90.9% in 2023. The EBIT margin turned positive at 22.6%, showing operational improvements.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.73, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity is negative due to net losses, but the equity ratio is strong at 40.3%, reflecting a solid equity base compared to total assets.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow improved significantly to $116.7 million in 2024, reflecting better cash generation from operations. Free cash flow turned positive at $56.3 million, indicating improved liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient cash management despite net losses.80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 340.74M | 159.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 117.34M | 17.83M | -2.12M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 59.02M | -72.23M | -4.74M | 10.81M |
| Net Income | -81.69M | -144.55M | -13.28M | 10.81M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 1.41B | 1.31B | 270.19M | 266.64M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 171.90M | 32.37M | 42.00K | 954.97K |
| Total Debt | 413.75M | 411.44M | 786.10K | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 840.63M | 1.04B | 25.68M | 18.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 566.96M | 268.03M | 244.52M | 248.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.33M | -36.86M | -2.90M | -1.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 116.74M | -11.71M | -2.90M | -1.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -165.34M | -779.11M | 0.00 | -265.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 194.90M | 823.14M | 1.99M | 267.14M |
MAC Copper Technical Analysis
Positive
12.21
Price Trends
12.14
Positive
11.93
Positive
11.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
59.14
Neutral
50.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.20, above the 50-day MA of 12.14, and above the 200-day MA of 11.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTAL.
MAC Copper Risk Analysis
MAC Copper disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MAC Copper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MAC Copper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.01B | ― | -12.26% | ― | ― | ― | |
71 Outperform | $55.81B | 29.44 | 10.70% | 1.51% | 5.70% | -0.52% | |
70 Outperform | $99.61B | 27.55 | 39.07% | 2.23% | 13.01% | 31.25% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $940.59M | 27.86 | -12.38% | 1.09% | -8.59% | -256.43% | |
53 Neutral | $666.17M | ― | -9.63% | 2.01% | 8.66% | 66.06% | |
42 Neutral | $1.63B | ― | -27.71% | ― | 35.54% | 67.79% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MTAL
MAC Copper
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-1.70
-12.22%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.