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ArcelorMittal (MT) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MT Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- -$0.52
- Consensus EPS
- -$0.40
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -$0.12
- One Year Ago EPS
- $0.50
MT Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- $16.47B
- Expected Revenue
- $17.14B
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -$678.97M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +5.15%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 11/05/2026
- Time
- Before Open
- Conference Call
- Thursday, November 5, 2026
ArcelorMittal's next earnings date is estimated for February 11, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly optimistic. Management highlighted 34% year-on-year EBITDA growth, structurally higher EBITDA per ton, sharply lower European imports, strengthening order books, restored furnace capacity, positive momentum in India and North America, and further earnings potential from trade measures and strategic investments. The main challenges were higher energy and raw-material costs, European destocking, the slower Calvert ramp-up, Q3 operational disruptions, and the Ukraine facility idling, but several of these issues were described as resolved or temporary.
For the fourth quarter, ArcelorMittal expects higher volumes, with Europe guided to flat volumes being accelerating in the fourth quarter and increasing year-on-year at a double-digit rate, generally higher steel prices across the segments, higher costs, and a stronger quarter from mining, with Liberia expected to be operating at capacity and shipments of 16 million tons versus 10.5 million tons in the nine months and a 20 million tons project in 2027; Brazil is expected to be a slight exception on prices, with performance more stable quarter-to-quarter. Destocking in Europe should largely end in Q4, the reduction in imports should translate into higher domestic shipments, and the full benefits of the new framework are expected in 2027, including repricing of a significant majority of the 25%, or approximately 25%, of European flat volumes under annual contracts. India is expected to deliver higher volumes in 2027, with some action in the first half of 2027 and improvements especially in the second half; Europe’s real demand is expected to remain relatively stable, while the World Steel Association forecast a 2%, 3% increase for Europe next year. North America shipments are expected to be flat in Q4, Others is typically about $50 million or so negative per quarter and about $200 million for the year, the large majority of working-capital investment is expected to reverse, and the CapEx envelope remains $4.5 billion-$5 billion; capital allocation could deploy more than the 50% that the policy would call for.
- Strong Q3 EBITDA Growth and Higher MarginsThird-quarter EBITDA was $2 billion, up 34% year-on-year. EBITDA per ton increased to $155, $44 higher than a year ago and well above historical averages, demonstrating structural margin improvements.
- Safety Performance Showing Greater ConsistencyAs ArcelorMittal approaches the end of the second year of its safety transformation, disciplined execution of safety roadmaps is producing more consistent performance across the group. The company remains focused on achieving zero fatalities and zero serious injuries.
- European Trade Framework Supporting Domestic SteelThe new European tariff-rate quota framework is restoring sustainability to the European steel industry. Flat steel imports were approximately 50% lower than a year ago, while European flat-product shipments increased sequentially in Q3 despite normal seasonality and destocking.
- Expected Double-Digit European Shipment GrowthThe European order book continues to strengthen, and shipment growth is expected to accelerate in Q4, with a double-digit year-on-year improvement. Management expects momentum to continue building into 2027 as inventories normalize and lower imports translate into higher domestic shipments.
- European Blast Furnaces Back in OperationWith Dąbrowa, Asturias, and Fos back in operation, all of ArcelorMittal's European blast furnaces are running. Poland's furnace had completed its ramp-up by the end of September, while Spain had two of three furnaces running well and Fos was progressing through its ramp-up.
- Additional European Margin Upside IdentifiedManagement stated that the full benefits of the new trade framework are expected in 2027. Approximately 25% of European flat-product volumes are under annual contracts, predominantly with automotive customers, and a significant majority are expected to reprice as 2027 begins. January pricing guidelines were described as significantly higher than current index levels.
- Positive Fourth-Quarter Operating DriversQ4 is expected to benefit from higher volumes, generally higher steel prices, stronger mining shipments, and an expected seasonal release of working capital. Liberia is expected to operate at capacity in Q4, supporting a stronger mining quarter and free cash flow.
- Improved European Order Book and Stable Underlying DemandUnderlying real demand in Europe was described as relatively stable, with resilient automotive demand. The company is fully booked for Q4 and is already taking orders for next year. European PMIs were noted to be at expansionary levels.
- India Shipment Record and Hazira ProgressThe year to September represented a new shipment record for ArcelorMittal's India business. At Hazira, the downstream cold mill and automotive finishing lines have been commissioned, coke oven batteries are being tested, and higher project volumes are expected to begin in 2027, with improvements particularly expected in the second half.
- Positive North American Market ConditionsNorth American steel prices and supply-demand conditions remain strong, with market tightness across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Discounts in Canada and Mexico have returned to normal parity levels after being wider earlier in the year.
- North American Trade Protection and Demand SupportManagement expects Section 232 to remain in place and described it as effective in addressing global excess capacity and unfair trade. In Canada, lower imports and government trade measures are supporting prices and demand, with management expressing confidence that 2027 should be significantly better.
- Brazil Flat-Product Strategy Supported by Trade MeasuresBrazil's flat business benefits from anti-dumping measures on cold roll, galvanized, and painted steel, with additional anti-dumping measures on HRC against China. Imports have moved down to normalized levels, and the company is investing in downstream flat-product capacity to convert exports into more domestic volumes.
- Strategic Growth Investments Increasing Earnings CapacityOver the past four years, ArcelorMittal has invested consistently in high-return strategic growth projects. Many projects have not yet reached full potential, providing an additional source of earnings growth into 2027 and beyond.
- Capital Allocation and Buyback FlexibilityManagement expects positive free cash flow this year and beyond, supported in Q4 by a seasonal working-capital release and debt reduction. The company has sufficient authorization to potentially deploy more than the 50% shareholder-distribution level referenced in its policy, including additional share buybacks.
- Liberia Mining Ramp-UpLiberia shipped approximately 10.5 million tons in the first nine months, with full-year guidance of 16 million tons. The project is expected to run at capacity in Q4, with rail and port capacity identified to support 20 million tons in 2027. Covered port stockyards are being added to reduce disruption from severe rain, while higher capacity should improve product mix and reduce costs.
- Positive Others Division Result in Q3The Others division was slightly positive in Q3 due to a significant release of intercompany profits and improved results in South Africa. Under normal conditions, management guides to an expense of approximately $200 million for the year, or about $50 million per quarter.
- European Policy Support Expected to ExpandManagement expects further support from the evolving European policy environment, including CBAM moving downstream to cover sensitive and derivative goods. News on the downstream CBAM discussions was expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027, while the tariff-rate quota review is expected around the middle of 2027.
- CapEx Envelope MaintainedThe $4.5 billion-$5 billion group CapEx envelope remains a good reference for spending going forward. The Tubarão cold-rolling and coating project has been approved and is being executed, with orders being placed.
MT Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 1.15- | 0.23 | ― | ― |
| Nov 05, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | -0.40-0.52 | 0.5 | -204.00% (-1.02) | |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 1.040.89 | 2.34 | -61.97% (-1.45) | |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 0.690.75 | 1.04 | -27.88% (-0.29) | |
| Feb 05, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 0.580.23 | -0.51 | 145.10% (+0.74) | |
| Nov 06, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 0.610.50 | 0.37 | 35.14% (+0.13) | |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 1.152.34 | 0.63 | 271.43% (+1.71) | |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 0.641.04 | 1.16 | -10.34% (-0.12) | |
| Feb 06, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 0.49-0.51 | -3.57 | 85.71% (+3.06) | |
| Nov 07, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 0.530.37 | 1.1 | -66.36% (-0.73) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
